Sequential Bayesian inference for static parameters in dynamic state space models

A method for sequential Bayesian inference of the static parameters of a dynamic state space model is proposed. The method is based on the observation that many dynamic state space models have a relatively small number of static parameters (or hyper-parameters), so that in principle the posterior can be computed and stored on a discrete grid of practical size which can be tracked dynamically. Further to this, this approach is able to use any existing methodology which computes the filtering and prediction distributions of the state process. Kalman filter and its extensions to non-linear/non-Gaussian situations have been used in this paper. This is illustrated using several applications: linear Gaussian model, Binomial model, stochastic volatility model and the extremely non-linear univariate non-stationary growth model. Performance has been compared to both existing on-line method and off-line methods

Ethnic Segretation in England's Schools

We document ethnic segregation in secondary schools in England in 2001 in order to contribute to the debate on the degree of ethnic group social integration. We use indices of dissimilarity and isolation to compare the patterns of segregation across nine ethnic groups. We find that levels of ethnic segregation in England¿s schools are high, with considerable variation both across LEAs and across different minority ethnic groups. By combining the two indices we are able to identify areas of particular concern as scoring highly on both. Finally, we show that ethnic segregation is only weakly related to income segregation.England, ethnic segregation, segregation indices, schools, minority group differences, spatial income clustering

Ethnic Segregation in England's Schools

We document ethnic segregation in secondary schools in England in 2001 in order to contribute to the debate on the degree of ethnic group social integration. We use indices of dissimilarity and isolation to compare the patterns of segregation across nine ethnic groups. We find that levels of ethnic segregation in England’s schools are high, with considerable variation both across LEAs and across different minority ethnic groups. By combining the two indices we are able to identify areas of particular concern as scoring highly on both. For pupils of Asian origin, we find that these areas coincide almost exactly with the locations of the severe disorders in the summer of 2001. Finally, we show that ethnic segregation is only weakly related to income segregation.ethnic segregation, schools, spatial income clustering

A bayesian analysis of beta testing

In this article, we define a model for fault detection during the beta testing phase of a software design project. Given sampled data, we illustrate how to estimate the failure rate and the number of faults in the software using Bayesian statistical methods with various different prior distributions. Secondly, given a suitable cost function, we also show how to optimise the duration of a further test period for each one of the prior distribution structures considered

The Dynamics of School Attainment of Englands Ethnic Minorities

We exploit a universe dataset of state school students in England with linked test score records to document the evolution of attainment through school for different ethnic groups. The analysis yields a number of striking findings. First, we show that, controlling for personal characteristics, all minority groups make greater progress than white students over secondary schooling. Second, much of this improvement occurs in the high-stakes exams at the end of compulsory schooling. Third, we show that for most ethnic groups, this gain is pervasive, happening in almost all schools in which these students are found. We address some of the usual factors invoked to explain attainment gaps: poverty, language, school quality, and teacher influence. We conclude that our findings are more consistent with the importance of factors like aspirations and attitudes.Ethnic test score gap, school attainment, education

Regional economic impacts of a plant disease incursion using a general equilibrium approach

The present study uses a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the micro- andmacroeconomic effects of a hypothetical disease or pest outbreak. Our example is a Karnal bunt incursion in wheat in Western Australia. The extent of the incursion, the impact of the disease or pest on plant yields, the response of buyers, the costs of eradication and the time path of the scenario contribute to outcomes at the industry, regional, state and national levels. We decompose the contribution of these individual direct effects to the overall impact of the incursion. This might provide some guidance regarding areas for priority in attempting to eradicate or minimise the impacts of a disease or pest. The study also introduces a theory of dynamic regional labour adjustment in which economic events may lead to both real wage differentials and worker migration between regions.Crop Production/Industries,