Spatial and Temporal Relationships Between Forest Bird Declines and Prevalence of the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid in the Northeastern United States

The eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) is a vital foundation tree species throughout the eastern United States, providing essential structural diversity and habitat for more than 120 different animal species. Within the past few decades, T. canadensis has undergone significant declines that are largely associated with the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae), an exotic, aphid-like insect native to East Asia. From the 1970s to present day, the HWA has spread throughout southern New England, large portions of the Mid-Atlantic region, and parts of Tennessee and the Carolinas. Research has shown that loss of the eastern hemlock is drastically altering forest community structures, potentially impacting a wide variety of forest fauna, including avian populations strongly associated with hemlock forests. Here we present research investigating the correlation between HWA prevalence and recent declines of hemlock-associated forest birds in the Eastern US. We analyzed bird population trends data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), US Forest Service HWA data, and land cover data to analyze the population trends of hemlock-associated and forest generalist species in association with the arrival of HWA, taking hemlock density into account. We found a significant correlation between the timing of HWA arrival and declines of conifer forest specialist birds. The Black-throated Green Warbler and the Blue-headed Vireo exhibited significant decline along survey routes after HWA arrival. Populations of some forest generalists (Tufted Titmouse, White-Breasted Nuthatch) were unaffected and continued to increase linearly, while others (Red-Eyed Vireo, Ovenbird) showed minor decrease in population

Evidence linking coronal mass ejections with interplanetary magnetic clouds

Using proxy data for the occurrence of those mass ejections from the solar corona which are directed earthward, we investigate the association between the post-1970 interplanetary magnetic clouds of Klein and Burlaga and coronal mass ejections. The evidence linking magnetic clouds following shocks with coronal mass ejections is striking; six of nine clouds observed at Earth were preceded an appropriate time earlier by meter-wave type II radio bursts indicative of coronal shock waves and coronal mass ejections occurring near central meridian. During the selected periods when no clouds were detected near Earth, the only type II bursts reported were associated with solar activity near the limbs. Where the proxy solar data to be sought are not so clearly suggested, that is, for clouds preceding interaction regions and clouds within cold magnetic enhancements, the evidence linking the clouds and coronal mass ejections is not as clear; proxy data usually suggest many candidate mass-ejection events for each cloud. Overall, the data are consistent with and support the hypothesis suggested by Klein and Burlaga that magnetic clouds observed with spacecraft at 1 AU are manifestations of solar coronal mass ejection transients

The Feasibility of Counting Songbirds Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Obtaining unbiased survey data for vocal bird species is inherently challenging due to observer biases, habitat coverage biases, and logistical constraints. We propose that combining bioacoustic monitoring with unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology could reduce some of these biases and allow bird surveys to be conducted in less accessible areas. We tested the feasibility of the UAV approach to songbird surveys using a low-cost quadcopter with a simple, lightweight recorder suspended 8 m below the vehicle. In a field experiment using playback of bird recordings, we found that small variations in UAV altitude (it hovered at 28, 48, and 68 m) didn\u27t have a significant effect on detections by the recorder attached to the UAV, and we found that the detection radius of our equipment was comparable with detection radii of standard point counts. We then field tested our equipment, comparing songbird detections from our UAV-mounted recorder with standard point-count data from 51 count stations. We found that the number of birds per point on UAV counts was comparable with standard counts for most species, but there were significant underestimates for some—specifically, issues of song masking for a species with a low-frequency song, the Mourning Dove (Zenaida macroura); and underestimation of the abundance of a species that was found in very high densities, the Gray Catbird (Dumetella carolinensis). Species richness was lower on UAV counts (mean = 5.6 species point−1) than on standard counts (8.3 species point−1), but only slightly lower than on standard counts if nonaudible detections are omitted (6.5 species point−1). Excessive UAV noise is a major hurdle to using UAVs for bioacoustic monitoring, but we are optimistic that technological innovations to reduce motor and rotor noise will significantly reduce this issue. We conclude that UAV-based bioacoustic monitoring holds great promise, and we urge other researchers to consider further experimentation to refine techniques

The wall of the cave

In this article old and new relations between gauge fields and strings are discussed. We add new arguments that the Yang Mills theories must be described by the non-critical strings in the five dimensional curved space. The physical meaning of the fifth dimension is that of the renormalization scale represented by the Liouville field. We analyze the meaning of the zigzag symmetry and show that it is likely to be present if there is a minimal supersymmetry on the world sheet. We also present the new string backgrounds which may be relevant for the description of the ordinary bosonic Yang-Mills theories. The article is written on the occasion of the 40-th anniversary of the IHES.Comment: 18 pages, Late

Estimating sunspot number

An empirical method is developed to predict certain parameters of future solar activity cycles. Sunspot cycle statistics are examined, and curve fitting and linear regression analysis techniques are utilized

CROP INSURANCE UNDER QUALITY UNCERTAINTY

Quality related yield and price losses have had significant impact on producer income and risks, and in some instances exceeded yield and price losses covered by conventional insurance instruments. However, there are no effective third party quality risk transfer mechanisms especially for barley growers. In this paper, we develop a framework to incorporate quality-related risk in crop insurance programs. Specifically, we derive the optimum equilibrium coverage levels and risk premium that suppliers of insurance and producers would be willing to provide when the yield and revenue insurance instruments explicitly incorporate quality losses. The results of our analysis provide several important contributions. First, the methodology illustrates how quality impacts could be incorporated into crop insurance types of contracts. Second, we explicitly incorporate the correlation effects of yield and price shortfalls due to quality. Though applied here in the case of malting barley and scab, this approach could be applied similarly in many regions, crops, and quality factors.Risk and Uncertainty,

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SCAB WITH ALTERNATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY: THE CASE OF CROP QUALITY INSURANCE IN BARLEY

Managing quality risks, especially grain quality, has been a challenge facing farmers, grain merchandisers, and policymakers for many years. With the advent of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), food safety, and identity preservation, this is even more challenging today. In this paper, an equilibrium crop insurance model was developed and used to analyze the impact of quality risks on equilibrium coverage levels and risk premiums that suppliers of insurance and barley producers would be willing to provide when yield and revenue insurance instruments explicitly incorporate quality risks. The asking price concept and sensitivity analysis were used to evaluate farmers' behavior after they purchase crop quality insurance and to provide guidance and direction in the development of risk-efficient quality insurance instruments.crop insurance, equilibrium coverage levels, Fusarium Head Blight, premium rates, quality risks, risk aversion, Crop Production/Industries,

Overlap Removal of Dimensionality Reduction Scatterplot Layouts

Dimensionality Reduction (DR) scatterplot layouts have become a ubiquitous visualization tool for analyzing multidimensional data items with presence in different areas. Despite its popularity, scatterplots suffer from occlusion, especially when markers convey information, making it troublesome for users to estimate items' groups' sizes and, more importantly, potentially obfuscating critical items for the analysis under execution. Different strategies have been devised to address this issue, either producing overlap-free layouts, lacking the powerful capabilities of contemporary DR techniques in uncover interesting data patterns, or eliminating overlaps as a post-processing strategy. Despite the good results of post-processing techniques, the best methods typically expand or distort the scatterplot area, thus reducing markers' size (sometimes) to unreadable dimensions, defeating the purpose of removing overlaps. This paper presents a novel post-processing strategy to remove DR layouts' overlaps that faithfully preserves the original layout's characteristics and markers' sizes. We show that the proposed strategy surpasses the state-of-the-art in overlap removal through an extensive comparative evaluation considering multiple different metrics while it is 2 or 3 orders of magnitude faster for large datasets.Comment: 11 pages and 9 figure