Economics of Cattle Production Systems Post CAP Reform.

End of Project ReportThe radical reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in the early 1990’s impacted directly and indirectly on most of the farm enterprises in Ireland. The direct focus of the reform was largely confined to the cereal and beef enterprises. The reforms consisted of: • A phased reduction in the institutional support prices for cereals and beef of the order of 30 per cent • A phased switch to a direct payment system of farm income support to compensate for the product price reductions. Most farms in Ireland have a cattle enterprise, either alone or in combination with other land using enterprises. Therefore, the reforms of the CAP affected almost all the farms in the country either directly or indirectly. For cattle farmers, the potential consequencee of these changes could be far reaching in terms of their magnitude and their permeation into the details of the husbandry practices of the production system(s) themselves. These changes clearly impact on the economic efficiency of beef systems without necessarily affecting technical efficiency of the systems. The economic optimum cattle production systems would thus be achieved by using the best mix of feed resource costs, carcass values and direct payments. The purpose of the study was to: • determine the economic impact on the cattle enterprise of the switch to: • lower EU prices for beef • lower EU prices for cereals and as a consequence a lower price for concentrate feeds • the direct payment system of income support • identify the economic optimum cattle production system(s) that would arise from these changes • quantify the sensitivity of the economic optimum system to key policy, economic and technical production variables

The incidence of postoperative venous thrombosis among patients with ulcerative colitis

Background: Patients with Ulcerative Colitis (UC) have inherent prothrombotic tendencies. It is unknown whether this necessitates the use of additional perioperative anti-thrombotic prophylaxis when such patients require major surgery. Methods: The postoperative courses of 79 patients with UC undergoing 180 major abdominal and pelvic operations were examined for clinical and radiological evidence of venous thrombosis. Eighteen patients with Familial Adenomatous Polyposis (FAP) having surgery (35 operations) of similar magnitude were also studied. Standard anti-thrombosis prophylaxis was utilised in all patients. Results: Nine patients with UC were clinically suspected of developing postoperative venous thrombosis, but only three (3.8%) had their diagnosis confirmed radiologically (all had a pulmonary embolus). Therefore, the overall postoperative thrombosis rate, on an intention to treat basis, was 1.7% (3/180). No patient with FAP developed significant venous thrombosis. Conclusion: Standard perioperative antithrombotic modalities are sufficient to maintain any potential increase in postoperative thrombotic risk at an acceptable level in patients with UC undergoing operative intervention

Modelling Long Term Disability following Injury: Comparison of Three Approaches for Handling Multiple Injuries

BACKGROUND: Injury is a leading cause of the global burden of disease (GBD). Estimates of non-fatal injury burden have been limited by a paucity of empirical outcomes data. This study aimed to (i) establish the 12-month disability associated with each GBD 2010 injury health state, and (ii) compare approaches to modelling the impact of multiple injury health states on disability as measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale - Extended (GOS-E). METHODS: 12-month functional outcomes for 11,337 survivors to hospital discharge were drawn from the Victorian State Trauma Registry and the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry. ICD-10 diagnosis codes were mapped to the GBD 2010 injury health states. Cases with a GOS-E score >6 were defined as "recovered." A split dataset approach was used. Cases were randomly assigned to development or test datasets. Probability of recovery for each health state was calculated using the development dataset. Three logistic regression models were evaluated: a) additive, multivariable; b) "worst injury;" and c) multiplicative. Models were adjusted for age and comorbidity and investigated for discrimination and calibration. FINDINGS: A single injury health state was recorded for 46% of cases (1-16 health states per case). The additive (C-statistic 0.70, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.71) and "worst injury" (C-statistic 0.70; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.71) models demonstrated higher discrimination than the multiplicative (C-statistic 0.68; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.70) model. The additive and "worst injury" models demonstrated acceptable calibration. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients survived with persisting disability at 12-months, highlighting the importance of improving estimates of non-fatal injury burden. Additive and "worst" injury models performed similarly. GBD 2010 injury states were moderately predictive of recovery 1-year post-injury. Further evaluation using additional measures of health status and functioning and comparison with the GBD 2010 disability weights will be needed to optimise injury states for future GBD studies

Internal jugular and common femoral venous access for the removal of a long-term embedded vena cava filter

We describe an inferior vena cava filter retrieval technique requiring triple venous access performed in a 35-year-old male who was referred for filter removal 16 months after its insertion. The filter showed a right-sided tilt with endothelialization of the distal filter struts into the caval wall. Access was required via both internal jugular veins to straighten the filter using a snared-loop technique. Further 18 F right common femoral vein access was required to snare and remove the filter, which could not be completely collapsed distally due to endothelialized tissue, precluding normal removal via the jugular venous route

Economic (gross cost) analysis of systematically implementing a programme of advance care planning in three Irish nursing homes.

Background: Although advance care planning (ACP) and the use of advanced care directives (ACD) and end-of-life care plans are associated with a reduction in inappropriate hospitalisation, there is little evidence supporting the economic benefits of such programmes. We assessed the economic impact (gross savings) of the Let Me Decide (LMD) ACP programme in Ireland, specifically the impact on hospitalisations, bed days and location of resident deaths, before and after systematic implementation of the LMD-ACP combined with a palliative care education programme. Methods: The LMD-ACP was introduced into three long-term care (LTC) facilities in Southern Ireland and outcomes were compared pre and post implementation. In addition, 90 staff were trained in a palliative care educational programme. Economic analysis including probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Results: The uptake of an ACD or end-of-life care post-implementation rose from 25 to 76 %. Post implementation, there were statistically significant decreases in hospitalisation rates from baseline (hospitalisation incidents declined from 27.8 to 14.6 %, z = 3.96, p < 0.001; inpatient hospital days reduced from 0.54 to 0.36 %, z = 8.85, p < 0.001). The percentage of hospital deaths also decreased from 22.9 to 8.4 %, z = 3.22, p = 0.001. However, length of stay (LOS) increased marginally (7–9 days). Economic analysis suggested a cost-reduction related to reduced hospitalisations ranging between €10 and €17.8 million/annum and reduction in ambulance transfers, estimated at €0.4 million/annum if these results were extrapolated nationally. When unit costs and LOS estimates were varied in scenario analyses, the expected cost reduction owing to reduced hospitalisations, ranged from €17.7 to €42.4 million nationally. Conclusions: Implementation of the LMD-ACP (ACD/end-of-life care plans combined with palliative care education) programme resulted in reduced rates of hospitalisation. Despite an increase in LOS, likely reflecting more complex care needs of admitted residents, gross costs were reduced and scenario analysis projected large annual savings if these results were extrapolated to the wider LTC population in Ireland

Update to a protocol for a feasibility cluster randomised controlled trial of a peer-led school-based intervention to increase the physical activity of adolescent girls (PLAN-A)

BACKGROUND: Physical activity levels are low amongst adolescent girls, and this population faces specific barriers to being active. Peer influences on health behaviours are important in adolescence, and peer-led interventions might hold promise to change behaviour. This paper describes the protocol for a feasibility cluster randomised controlled trial of Peer-Led physical Activity iNtervention for Adolescent girls (PLAN-A), a peer-led intervention aimed at increasing adolescent girls’ physical activity levels. In addition, this paper describes an update that has been made to the protocol for the PLAN-A feasibility cluster randomised controlled trial. METHODS/DESIGN: A two-arm cluster randomised feasibility trial will be conducted in six secondary schools (intervention n = 4; control n = 2) with year 8 (12–13 years old) girls. The intervention will operate at a year group level and consist of year 8 girls nominating influential peers within their year group to become peer supporters. Approximately 15% of the cohort will receive 3 days of training about physical activity and interpersonal communication skills. Peer supporters will then informally diffuse messages about physical activity amongst their friends for 10 weeks. Data will be collected at baseline (time 0 (T0)), immediately after the intervention (time 1 (T1)) and 12 months after baseline measures (time 2 (T2)). In this feasibility trial, the primary interest is in the recruitment of schools and participants (both year 8 girls and peer supporters), delivery and receipt of the intervention, data provision rates and identifying the cost categories for future economic analysis. Physical activity will be assessed using 7-day accelerometry, with the likely primary outcome in a fully powered trial being daily minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Participants will also complete psychosocial questionnaires at each time point: assessing motivation, self-esteem and peer physical activity norms. Data analysis will be largely descriptive and focus on recruitment, attendance and data provision rates. The findings will inform the sample size required for a definitive trial. A detailed process evaluation using qualitative and quantitative methods will be conducted with a variety of stakeholders (i.e. pupils, parents, teachers and peer-supporter trainers) to identify areas of success and necessary improvements prior to proceeding to a definitive trial. DISCUSSION: The study will provide the information necessary to design a fully powered trial should PLAN-A demonstrate evidence of promise. This paper describes an update to the protocol for the PLAN-A feasibility cluster randomised controlled trial related to the data-linkage component. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN1254354

Optimization and Dose Estimation of Aerosol Delivery to Non-Human Primates

Background: In pre-clinical animal studies, the uniformity of dosing across subjects and routes of administration is a crucial requirement. In preparation for a study in which aerosolized live-attenuated measles virus vaccine was administered to cynomolgus monkeys (Macaca fascicularis) by inhalation, we assessed the percentage of a nebulized dose inhaled under varying conditions. Methods: Drug delivery varies with breathing parameters. Therefore we determined macaque breathing patterns (tidal volume, breathing frequency, and inspiratory to expiratory (I:E) ratio) across a range of 3.3-6.5 kg body weight, using a pediatric pneumotachometer interfaced either with an endotracheal tube or a facemask. Subsequently, these breathing patterns were reproduced using a breathing simulator attached to a filter to collect the inhaled dose. Albuterol was nebulized using a vibrating mesh nebulizer and the percentage inhaled dose was determined by extraction of drug from the filter and subsequent quantification. Results: Tidal volumes ranged from 24 to 46 mL, breathing frequencies from 19 to 31 breaths per minute and I:E ratios from 0.7 to 1.6. A small pediatric resuscitation mask was identified as the best fitting interface between animal and pneumotachometer. The average efficiency of inhaled dose delivery was 32.1% (standard deviation 7.5, range 24%-48%), with variation in tidal volumes as the most important determinant. Conclusions: Studies in non-human primates aimed at comparing aerosol delivery with other routes of administration should take both the inter-subject variation and relatively low efficiency of delivery to these low body weight mammals into account

The inter-rater reliability of the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community

Predicting risk of adverse healthcare outcomes is important to enable targeted delivery of interventions. The Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC), designed for use by public health nurses (PHNs), measures the one-year risk of hospitalisation, institutionalisation and death in community-dwelling older adults according to a five-point global risk score: from low (score 1,2), medium (3) and high (4,5). We examined the inter-rater reliability (IRR) of the RISC between student PHNs (n=32) and expert raters using six cases (two low, medium and high-risk), scored before and after RISC training. Correlations increased for each adverse outcome, statistically significantly for institutionalisation (r=0.72 to 0.80,p=0.04) and hospitalisation, (r=0.51 to 0.71,p<0.01) but not death. Training improved accuracy for low-risk but not all high-risk cases. Overall, the RISC showed good IRR, which increased after RISC training. That reliability reduced for some high-risk cases suggests that the training programme requires adjustment to further improve IRR

How does the environment in and around the home impact social care and health outcomes for older people?

Reducing the burden of falls and fall-related admissions to hospital and care homes is an important policy area. Falls cause significant injury leading to a reduced quality of life. We wanted to know if the environment around people’s homes changes the risk of falls for older people in Wales. We linked routinely collected, anonymised health data on frailty, dementia, hospital admissions, care home admission, and A&E attendance in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. We also linked individual level demographic data and household level neighbourhood walkability and accessibility metrics detailing the built environment (e.g. access to services, greenspace). We capture change in the built environment and house moves between January 2010 and December 2017. Using unadjusted and adjusted cox regression models we will assess how the risk and severity of a fall changes in relation to the built environment. We have created a dynamic national e-cohort linking data on frailty, dementia, hospital admissions, care home admission, A&E attendance and built environment measures for people living in Wales aged 60 and above between January 2010 and December 2017. At the conference we will report summary statistics for each quarter as well as the overall population. We will also report unadjusted cox model odds ratios, as well as fully adjusted models. We will adjust for age, sex, urbanicity (urban/rural), deprivation (WIMD), dementia diagnosis, and seasonal weather trends. We will also report odds ratios for our stratification analysis where we will investigate whether associations vary by urbanicity and deprivation. With an aging population, it is becoming more important to help the current and future older population age healthily, preventing adverse health outcomes before they happen. This research will help guide policy and resource allocation to support people staying at home and have a more fulfilling life for longer