Uncertainty quantification for CO2 sequestration and enhanced oil recovery

This study develops a statistical method to perform uncertainty quantification for understanding CO2 storage potential within an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) environment at the Farnsworth Unit of the Anadarko Basin in northern Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil-water flow and reactive transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major uncertainty metrics: net CO2 injection, cumulative oil production, cumulative gas (CH4) production, and net water injection. A global sensitivity and response surface analysis indicates that reservoir permeability, porosity, and thickness are the major intrinsic reservoir parameters that control net CO2 injection/storage and oil/gas recovery rates. The well spacing and the initial water saturation also have large impact on the oil/gas recovery rates. Further, this study has revealed key insights into the potential behavior and the operational parameters of CO2 sequestration at CO2-EOR sites, including the impact of reservoir characterization uncertainty; understanding this uncertainty is critical in terms of economic decision making and the cost-effectiveness of CO2 storage through EOR.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, in press, Energy Procedia, 201

Limitations of microscopy to differentiate Plasmodium species in a region co-endemic for Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium knowlesi

BackgroundIn areas co-endemic for multiple Plasmodium species, correct diagnosis is crucial for appropriate treatment and surveillance. Species misidentification by microscopy has been reported in areas co-endemic for vivax and falciparum malaria, and may be more frequent in regions where Plasmodium knowlesi also commonly occurs. MethodsThis prospective study in Sabah, Malaysia, evaluated the accuracy of routine district and referral hospital-based microscopy, and microscopy performed by an experienced research microscopist, for the diagnosis of PCR-confirmed Plasmodium falciparum, P. knowlesi, and Plasmodium vivax malaria. ResultsA total of 304 patients with PCR-confirmed Plasmodium infection were enrolled, including 130 with P. knowlesi, 122 with P. falciparum, 43 with P. vivax, one with Plasmodium malariae and eight with mixed species infections. Among patients with P. knowlesi mono-infection, routine and cross-check microscopy both identified 94 (72%) patients as “P. malariae/P. knowlesi”; 17 (13%) and 28 (22%) respectively were identified as P. falciparum, and 13 (10%) and two (1.5%) as P. vivax. Among patients with PCR-confirmed P. falciparum, routine and cross-check microscopy identified 110/122 (90%) and 112/118 (95%) patients respectively as P. falciparum, and 8/122 (6.6%) and 5/118 (4.2%) as “P. malariae/P. knowlesi”. Among those with P. vivax, 23/43 (53%) and 34/40 (85%) were correctly diagnosed by routine and cross-check microscopy respectively, while 13/43 (30%) and 3/40 (7.5%) patients were diagnosed as “P. malariae/P. knowlesi”. Four of 13 patients with PCR-confirmed P. vivax and misdiagnosed by routine microscopy as “P. malariae/P. knowlesi” were subsequently re-admitted with P. vivax malaria. ConclusionsMicroscopy does not reliably distinguish between P. falciparum, P. vivax and P. knowlesi in a region where all three species frequently occur. Misdiagnosis of P. knowlesi as both P. vivax and P. falciparum, and vice versa, is common, potentially leading to inappropriate treatment, including chloroquine therapy for P. falciparum and a lack of anti-relapse therapy for P. vivax. The limitations of microscopy in P. knowlesi-endemic areas supports the use of unified blood-stage treatment strategies for all Plasmodium species, the development of accurate rapid diagnostic tests suitable for all species, and the use of PCR-confirmation for accurate surveillance

Lingual Salt Glands in Crocodylus acutus and C. johnstoni and Their Absence from Alligator mississipiensis and Caiman crocodilus

1. Lingual salt glands, secreting hyperosmotic Na/K solutions in response to methacholine, are present in Crocodylus acutus and C. johnstoni but apparently absent from the alligatorids, Alligator mississipiensis and Caiman crocodilus. 2. Both secretory rates (6-20 [micro-mol/100 g-h) and concentrations (450-600 mM Na) of glandular secretions are essentially identical in the marine/estuarine C. acutus and C. porosus and significantly higher than in the freshwater C. johnstoni (1-2 micro-mol/100 g-h; 320-420 mM Na). 3. Lingual glands in Alligator secrete isosmotic Na/K at low rates (1-2 micro-mol/100 g-h) while those of Caiman show no response to methacholine. 4. The physiological contrast between alligatorids and crocodylids is reflected in distinct differences in the superficial appearance of the tongue and lingual pores. 5. It is postulated that the alligatorid condition of low secretory capacity and isosmotic secretion reflects the primitive salivary function of lingual glands from which the salt-secreting capability in crocodylids was derived

Association between Landscape Factors and Spatial Patterns of Plasmodium knowlesi Infections in Sabah, Malaysia.

The zoonotic malaria species Plasmodium knowlesi has become the main cause of human malaria in Malaysian Borneo. Deforestation and associated environmental and population changes have been hypothesized as main drivers of this apparent emergence. We gathered village-level data for P. knowlesi incidence for the districts of Kudat and Kota Marudu in Sabah state, Malaysia, for 2008-2012. We adjusted malaria records from routine reporting systems to reflect the diagnostic uncertainty of microscopy for P. knowlesi. We also developed negative binomial spatial autoregressive models to assess potential associations between P. knowlesi incidence and environmental variables derived from satellite-based remote-sensing data. Marked spatial heterogeneity in P. knowlesi incidence was observed, and village-level numbers of P. knowlesi cases were positively associated with forest cover and historical forest loss in surrounding areas. These results suggest the likelihood that deforestation and associated environmental changes are key drivers in P. knowlesi transmission in these areas

Increasing Incidence of Plasmodium knowlesi Malaria following Control of P. falciparum and P. vivax Malaria in Sabah Malaysia

BackgroundThe simian parasite Plasmodium knowlesi is a common cause of human malaria in Malaysian Borneo and threatens the prospect of malaria elimination. However, little is known about the emergence of P. knowlesi, particularly in Sabah. We reviewed Sabah Department of Health records to investigate the trend of each malaria species over time.MethodsReporting of microscopy-diagnosed malaria cases in Sabah is mandatory. We reviewed all available Department of Health malaria notification records from 1992–2011. Notifications of P. malariae and P. knowlesi were considered as a single group due to microscopic near-identity.ResultsFrom 1992–2011 total malaria notifications decreased dramatically, with P. falciparum peaking at 33,153 in 1994 and decreasing 55-fold to 605 in 2011, and P. vivax peaking at 15,857 in 1995 and decreasing 25-fold to 628 in 2011. Notifications of P. malariae/P. knowlesi also demonstrated a peak in the mid-1990s (614 in 1994) before decreasing to ≈100/year in the late 1990s/early 2000s. However, P. malariae/P. knowlesi notifications increased >10-fold between 2004 (n = 59) and 2011 (n = 703). In 1992 P. falciparum, P. vivax and P. malariae/P. knowlesi monoinfections accounted for 70%, 24% and 1% respectively of malaria notifications, compared to 30%, 31% and 35% in 2011. The increase in P. malariae/P. knowlesi notifications occurred state-wide, appearing to have begun in the southwest and progressed north-easterly.ConclusionsA significant recent increase has occurred in P. knowlesi notifications following reduced transmission of the human Plasmodium species, and this trend threatens malaria elimination. Determination of transmission dynamics and risk factors for knowlesi malaria is required to guide measures to control this rising incidence