Remote sensing and geographic information systems for decision analysis in public resource administration: Case study in a Southwestern watershed

Alternative futures analysis is a scenario-based approach to regional land planning that attempts to synthesize existing scientific information in a format useful to community decision makers. Typically, this approach attempts to investigate the impacts of several alternative sets of choices preferred by representative stakeholder groups relative to selected environmental or economical endpoints. Potential impacts from each of the scenarios are compared to current conditions of the region in terms of a set of processes that are modeled within a geographic information system. Future conditions are generally examined from the perspective of a recent baseline condition (versus empirically determined using a series of retrospective measurements). During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial analysis technologies have been linked to the study of distribution patterns of communities and ecosystems and the ecological processes that affect these patterns. Because of the 25+ year availability of commercial satellite imagery, it is possible to examine environmental change and establish models which can narrow the actual choice of possible and probable change scenarios. This professional paper examines the potential to establish reference condition and measure change over large geographic areas; determine trends in environmental condition; and model and predict future landscape scenarios using advanced space-based technologies. Specifically, landscape pattern measurements were developed from satellite remote sensing, spatial statistics, and geographic information systems technology for a semi-arid watershed in southeast Arizona and northeast Sonora, Mexico and evaluated for their use in a decision-making framework

Reproductive Biology of Longfin Dace (Agosia chrysogaster) in a Sonoran Desert Stream, Arizona

original available only as paper hard copy from Arizona State University at time of publication here.The longfin dace, Agosia chrysogaster Girard, is the most abundant native minnow of low elevation (< 1,500 m) streams in Arizona, parts of southwestern New Mexico, and northern Mexico. Reproductive life history of longfin dace was examined over a 12-month period (1977-78) in Aravaipa Creek, Graham and Pinal counties, Arizona. Adult males and females are sexually dimorphic, clearly distinguishable by differences in size of fins. Gravid females and tuberculate males persisted throughout the year and spawned in shallow saucer-shaped depressions in sand-bottomed backwaters and runs. Although individual spawning activity was asynchronous, populations reached peak spawning condition at least twice within the year. Peak reproductive activity was during increased discharge in spring and late summer. Fecundity was primarily a function of size. Ovary weight was highly correlated with fecundity and was the most reliable indicator of total mature ova produced.Integrative Biolog

Scenario analysis for the San Pedro River, analyzing hydrological consequences of a future environment.

Abstract. Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology

Modeling Urban Hydrology and Green Infrastructure Using the AGWA Urban Tool and the KINEROS2 Model

Urban hydrology and green infrastructure (GI) can be modeled using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) Urban tool and the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion (KINEROS2) model. The KINEROS2 model provides an urban modeling element with nine overland flow components that can be used to represent various land cover types commonly found in the built environment while treating runoff-runon and infiltration processes in a physically based manner. The AGWA Urban tool utilizes a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework to prepare parameters required for KINEROS2, executes the model, and imports results for visualization in the GIS. The AGWA Urban tool was validated on a residential subdivision in Arizona, USA, using 47 rainfall events (June 2005 to September 2006) to compare observed runoff volumes and peak flow rates with simulated results. Comparison of simulated and observed runoff volumes resulted in a slope of 1.00 for the regression equation with an R2 value of 0.80. Comparison of observed and simulated peak flows had a slope of 1.12 with an R2 value of 0.83. A roof runoff analysis was simulated for 787 events, from January 2006 through December 2015, to analyze the water availability from roof runoff capture. Simulation results indicated a 15% capture of the average monthly rainfall volume on the watershed. Additionally, rainwater captured from roofs has the potential to provide for up to 70% of the domestic annual per capita water use in this region. Five different scenarios (S1 - base, S2 - with retention basins, S3 - with permeable driveways, S4 - with rainwater harvesting cisterns, and S5 - all GI practices from S2, S3, and S4) were simulated over the same period to compare the effectiveness of GI implementation at the parcel level on runoff and peak flows at the watershed outlet. Simulation results indicate a higher runoff volume reduction for S2 (53.41 m3 average capacity, average 30% reduction) as compared to S3 (average 14% reduction), or S4 (3.78 m3 capacity, average 6% reduction). Analysis of peak flows reveal larger peak flow reduction for S2. S3 showed more reduction of smaller peak flows as compared to S4

San Bernardino National Wildlife Refuge contaminant study

20 pages (PDF version). File size: 390.591 KB

Desertification in the Mediterranean Region. A security issue

Proceedings of the NATO Mediterranean Dialogue Workshop on Desertification in the Mediterranean Region. A Security Issue Valencia, Spain 2-5 December 2003Peer reviewe

Applying Biodiversity Metrics as Surrogates to a Habitat Conservation Plan

Unabated urbanization has led to environmental degradation and subsequent biodiversity loss across the globe. As an outcome of unmitigated land use, multi-jurisdictional agencies have developed land use plans that attempt to protect threatened or endangered species across selected areas by which some trade-offs between harm to species and additional conservation approaches are allowed among the partnering organizations. Typical conservation plans can be created to focus on single or multiple species, and although they may protect a species or groups of species, they may not account for biodiversity or its protection across the given area. We applied an approach that clustered deductive habitat models for terrestrial vertebrates into metrics that serve as surrogates for biodiversity and relate to ecosystem services. In order to evaluate this process, we collaborated with the partnering agencies who are creating a Multi-Species Habitat Conservation Plan in southern California and compared it to the entire Mojave Desert Ecoregion. We focused on total terrestrial vertebrate species richness and taxon groupings representing amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles, and two special status species using the Normalized Index of Biodiversity (NIB). The conservation planning area had a lower NIB and was less species rich than the Mojave Desert Ecoregion, but the Mojave River riparian corridor had a higher NIB and was more species-rich, and while taxon analysis varied across the geographies, this pattern generally held. Additionally, we analyzed desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) and desert kit fox (Vulpes macrotis arsipus) as umbrella species and determined that both species are associated with increased NIB and large numbers of species for the conservation area. Our process provided the ability to incorporate value-added surrogate information into a formal land use planning process and used a metric, NIB, which allowed comparison of the various planning areas and geographic units. Although this process has been applied to Apple Valley, CA, and other geographies within the U.S., the approach has practical application for other global biodiversity initiatives

Linkages among Landscape Assessment, Quality of Life and Environmental SecurityHotel Tiziano, Centro Congressi, Lecce

The NATO Committee on the Challenges of Modern Society (CCMS) was established in 1969 in order to give new "social dimension" and peaceful use to the defence Alliance. Its focus was to address practical problems already under study at the national level and, by combining the expertise and technology available in member countries, arrive fairly rapidly at valid conclusions and to make recommendations for action to benefit all. One of the most important advantages of CCMS is the fact that it represents a unique forum for discussion of environmental problems and the exchange of information, on both civilian and military environmental matters. CCMS carries its research activities out on a decentralised basis through its pilot studies. Subjects for pilot studies cover a large spectrum dealing with many aspects of environmental protection and the quality of life, including defence-related environmental problems. Since the start of CCMS activities more than 65 pilot studies have been completed (see http://www.nato.int/ccms/). Each pilot country is responsible for developing, conducting, and disseminating the results of a pilot study. Co-pilot countries and other participating countries share the workload according to their interest. The participation of the 19 NATO members and of the 27 Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC) countries in the pilot studies is always on a voluntary basis. As a part of the activities of the pilot study, workshops, seminars or international conferences may be held. Reports on the progress of studies are submitted to the CCMS by pilot countries at regular intervals. On completion of a study a summary report is submitted to the CCMS members and then forwarded to the North Atlantic Council. A technical report is usually also published by the pilot group and made available on a worldwide basis to anyone expressing interest. NATO countries: Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States. EAPC countries: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Ireland, Kazakhstan, Kyrghyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan. Further information on CCMS can be obtained from: CCMS Secretariat NATO - Scientific Affairs Division B-1110 Brussels, Belgium Tel: (32-2) 707.48.46 or 707.48.50 Fax: (32-2) 707.42.32 http://www.nato.int/ccms/ Pilot Study on the Use of Landscape Sciences for Environmental Assessment The assessment of land use and land cover is an extremely important activity for contemporary land management. Human land-use practices (including type, magnitude, and distribution) are the most important factor influencing natural resource management at local, regional, national, and global scales. Through much of the past century, forests and rangelands have been managed to assure production of timber, livestock, water, minerals, and recreational opportunities, with the primary focus on outputs rather than on the environmental condition left behind. Today’s environmental managers, urban planners, and decision-makers are increasingly expected to examine environmental and economic problems in a larger geographic context relative to 1) understanding the scales at which specific management actions are needed; 2) conceptualizing environmental management strategies; 3) formulating sets of alternatives to reduce environmental and/or economic vulnerability and uncertainty in their evaluation analyses; and 4) prioritizing, conserving, or restoring valued natural resources, especially those which provide important economic goods and services. On 22-23 March 2001 the NATO/CCMS Plenary Meeting in Brussels, Belgium accepted a proposal for the use of landscape sciences in environmental assessment developed by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The proposal was to establish a working group representative of member and partner Nations to exchange information about landscape science approaches useful for environmental assessment and to transfer landscape assessment technologies among the study group participants for use in environmental protection and preservation programs. It is anticipated that multiple geographic areas in the continental United States and Europe will be selected for demonstration study. The pilot study will explore the possibility of quantifying and assessing environmental condition, processes of land degradation, and subsequent impacts on natural and human resources by combining the advanced technologies of remote sensing, geographic information systems, spatial statistics, and process models with landscape ecology theory. It is expected that the Pilot Study will be accomplished within four years. The anticipated final product may include a book that incorporates each of the separate landscape assessments for the selected geographic areas of the NATO member and partner nations. Additionally, landscape characterization, landscape indicators, assessment software tools, and databases will be developed. The pilot project convened its first organizational meeting in Las Vegas, Nevada USA during the week of 3-5 April 2002 and later met at the Schleswig-Holstein Cultural Center near Kiel, Germany on 19-21 November 2002, and Debe, Poland, 1-3 September 2003. Currently, 20 countries have committed to the project, i.e. Austria, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Georgia, Italy, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine, United States, and Australia (a non-member). The next project meeting is scheduled in Lecce, Italy, 5-9 September 2004

Evaluating Biodiversity Metric Response to Forecasted Land Use Change in the Northern Rio Grande Basin

The effects of future land use change on arid and semi-arid watersheds in the American Southwest have important management implications. Seamless, national-scale land-use-change scenarios for developed land were acquired from the US Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (lCLUS) project and extracted to fit the Northern Rio Grande River Basin, New Mexico relative to projections of housing density for the period from 2000 through 2100. Habitat models developed from the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project were invoked to examine changes in wildlife habitat and biodiversity metrics using five ICLUS scenarios. The scenarios represent a US Census base-case and four modifications that were consistent with the different assumptions underlying the A1, A2, B1, and B2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global greenhouse gas emission storylines. Habitat models for terrestrial vertebrate species were used to derive metrics reflecting ecosystem services or biodiversity aspects valued by humans that could be quantified and mapped. Example metrics included total terrestrial vertebrate species richness, bird species richness, threatened and endangered species, and harvestable species (e.g., waterfowl, big game). Overall, the defined scenarios indicated that the housing density and extent of developed lands will increase throughout the century with a resultant decrease in area for all species richness categories. The A2 Scenario, in general, showed greatest effect on area by species richness category. The integration of the land use scenarios with biodiversity metrics derived from deductive habitat models may prove to be an important tool for decision makers involved in impact assessments and adaptive planning processes