Broad-Scale Latitudinal Variation in Female Reproductive Success Contributes to the Maintenance of a Geographic Range Boundary in Bagworms (Lepidoptera: Psychidae)

Background: Geographic range limits and the factors structuring them are of great interest to biologists, in part because of concerns about how global change may shift range boundaries. However, scientists lack strong mechanistic understanding of the factors that set geographic range limits in empirical systems, especially in animals. Methodology/Principal Findings: Across dozens of populations spread over six degrees of latitude in the American Midwest, female mating success of the evergreen bagworm Thyridopteryx ephemeraeformis (Lepidoptera: Psychidae) declines from,100 % to,0 % near the edge of the species range. When coupled with additional latitudinal declines in fecundity and in egg and pupal survivorship, a spatial gradient of bagworm reproductive success emerges. This gradient is associated with a progressive decline in local abundance and an increased risk of local population extinction, up to a latitudinal threshold where extremely low female fitness meshes spatially with the species ’ geographic range boundary. Conclusions/Significance: The reduction in fitness of female bagworms near the geographic range limit, which concords with the abundant centre hypothesis from biogeography, provides a concrete, empirical example of how an Allee effect (increased pre-reproductive mortality of females in sparsely populated areas) may interact with other demographic factor

The role of omnivory in mediating metacommunity robustness to habitat destruction

Omnivores have long been known to play an important role in determining the stability of ecological communities. Recent theoretical studies have suggested that they may also increase the resilience of their communities to habitat destruction, one of the major drivers of species extinctions globally. However, these outcomes were obtained for minimal food webs consisting of only a single omnivore and its prey species, while much more complex communities can be anticipated in nature. In this study, we undertake a systematic comparative analysis of the robustness of metacommunities containing various omnivory structures to habitat loss and fragmentation using a mathematical model. We observe that, in general, omnivores are better able to survive facing habitat destruction than specialist predators of similar trophic level. However, the community as a whole does not always benefit from the presence of omnivores, as they may drive their intraguild prey to extinction. We also analyze the frequency with which these modules occur in a set of empirical food webs, and demonstrate that variation in their rate of occurrence is consistent with our model predictions. Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering the complete food web in which an omnivore is embedded, suggesting that future study should focus on more holistic community analysis

How Transient Patches Affect Population Dynamics: The Case of Hypoxia and Blue Crabs

Transient low-oxygen patches may have important consequences for the population dynamics of estuarine species. We investigated whether these transient hypoxic patches altered population dynamics of the commercially important blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) and assessed two alternative hypotheses for the causal mechanism. One hypothesis is that temporary reductions in habitat due to hypoxia increase cannibalism. The second hypothesis is that crab population dynamics result from food limitation caused by hypoxia-induced mortality of the benthos. We developed a spatially explicit individual-based model of blue crabs in a hierarchical framework to connect the autoecology of crabs with the spatial and temporal dynamics of their physical and biological environments. Three primary scenarios were run to examine the interactive effects of (1) hypoxic extent vs. static and transient patches, (2) hypoxic extent vs. prey abundance, and (3) hypoxic extent vs. cannibalism potential. Static patches resulted in populations limited by egg production and recruitment whereas transient patches led to populations limited by the effects of cannibalism and patch interactions. Crab survivorship was greatest for simulations with the largest hypoxic patches which also had the lowest prey abundance and lowest crab densities. In these simulations, nearly all crab mortality was accounted for by aggression, not starvation. In addition, increased prey abundance had little influence on crab abundance and dynamics, and massive reductions in prey abundance (\u3e 50%) were necessary to decrease crab abundance, survival, and egg production. Our analyses suggest that cannibalism coupled with decreased egg production determined key aspects of crab demography. Specifically, decreased cannibalism potential resulted in a food-limited crab population with long development times and high adult crab densities whereas increased cannibalism potential led to low adult crab densities with higher individual egg production rates. Our analyses identified several key knowledge gaps, including the nature of crab-crab cannibalism and the role of refuges from predation. Several experiments are suggested to test model predictions and to improve understanding of ecosystem-population linkages for this estuarine species

Transient windows for connectivity in a changing world

The primary focus of studies examining metapopulation processes in dynamic or disturbance-dependent landscapes has been related to spatiotemporal changes in the habitat patches themselves. However, like the habitat patches, opportunities for movement between patches can also exist intermittently in dynamic landscapes, creating transient connectivity windows – which we define as a period of time during which matrix conditions increase the probability of one or more individuals moving successfully between habitat patches. Far less is known about the implications of dynamic changes in connectivity per se, and, to our knowledge, there are no connectivity metrics or metapopulation models that explicitly consider intermittent changes to connectivity between habitat patches. Consequently, in this paper, we examined the peer-reviewed, published literature up to November 2013 to better understand the consequences of variability in connectivity and to highlight knowledge gaps on this topic. First, we describe how connectivity per se can vary along a temporal gradient, offering examples of ecological systems that fall along this gradient. Second, we examine how temporal variability in connectivity is important for metapopulation dynamics, particularly given likely alterations to disturbance regimes as a result of global change. We conclude our review by briefly discussing key avenues for future connectivity-related research, all of which hinge on the need to perceive connectivity as a transient feature.https://doi.org/10.1186/2051-3933-2-

Managing disease outbreaks: The importance of vector mobility and spatially heterogeneous control

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.Management strategies for control of vector-borne diseases, for example Zika or dengue, include using larvicide and/or adulticide, either through large-scale application by truck or plane or through door-to-door efforts that require obtaining permission to access private property and spray yards. The efficacy of the latter strategy is highly dependent on the compliance of local residents. Here we develop a model for vector-borne disease transmission between mosquitoes and humans in a neighborhood setting, considering a network of houses connected via nearest-neighbor mosquito movement. We incorporate large-scale application of adulticide via aerial spraying through a uniform increase in vector death rates in all sites, and door-to-door application of larval source reduction and adulticide through a decrease in vector emergence rates and an increase in vector death rates in compliant sites only, where control efficacies are directly connected to real-world experimentally measurable control parameters, application frequencies, and control costs. To develop mechanistic insight into the influence of vector motion and compliance clustering on disease controllability, we determine the basic reproduction number R0 for the system, provide analytic results for the extreme cases of no mosquito movement, infinite hopping rates, and utilize degenerate perturbation theory for the case of slow but non-zero hopping rates. We then determine the application frequencies required for each strategy (alone and combined) in order to reduce R0 to unity, along with the associated costs. Cost-optimal strategies are found to depend strongly on mosquito hopping rates, levels of door-to-door compliance, and spatial clustering of compliant houses, and can include aerial spray alone, door-to-door treatment alone, or a combination of both. The optimization scheme developed here provides a flexible tool for disease management planners which translates modeling results into actionable control advice adaptable to system-specific details.Simons Foundation (426126)University of Kansas General Research Grant (2301-2105075)Department of Defense SERDP contract (W912HQ-16-C-0054