Can public employment subsidies render the German construction sector weather proof?

In order to confine excessive levels of temporary layoffs, US firms are taxed - albeit incompletely - according to the unemployment insurance benefits claimed by their laid off workers. In contrast, German construction firms are not charged according to their layoff history and should thus have much higher layoff incentives. However, in case of a weather-induced shortfall of work, a firm's workforce is eligible for a partial subsidy to their employment costs. The level of this subsidy was subject to several reforms throughout the 1990s which provides a unique opportunity for examining the empirical link between layoff incentives and layoff rates. Our analysis is based on large individual administrative data merged with information about local weather conditions and the business cycle. We observe economically plausible effects: the higher the subsidy to employment costs, the less layoffs occur and the less weather-dependent is employment.panel data, temporary layoffs, employment stability

Map Intersection Based Merging Schemes for Administrative Data Sources and an Application to Germany

In many situations the applied researcher wants to combine different data sources without knowing the exact link and merging rule. This paper introduces a theoretical framework how two different regional administrative data sources can be merged. It presents different merging schemes based on the area size of intersections between both regional entities. Estimates of intersection areas are derived from a digital map intersection. The theoretical framework derives conditions for the unbiasedness of estimated intersections and merging rules. The paper also presents conditions under which the choice of merging rule does not matter and illustrates the theoretical results with a simulation study. An application to German counties and federal employment office districts illustrates the applicability of the approach. It delivers merging schemes for regional data sources of the federal German statistical office and of the federal German employment office. --map intersection,administrative data,merging schemes,estimation

Unemployment duration in Germany: individual and regional determinants of local job finding, migration and subsidized employment

Recent labor market reforms in Germany aim, among other things, at reducing unemployment by restricting passive unemployment measures, emphasizing local labor market policies and re-structuring public employment services. This paper uses extensive individual administrative and regional aggregate data to explore the extent to which these factors are likely to contribute to the shortening of unemployment duration. For this purpose, we estimate a semi-parametric duration model with three competing exit states. Our results suggest that changes in the unemployment compensation system rather than local employment policies and administrative restructuring efforts meet expected labor market outcomes. In addition, determinants of the length of unemployment vary across exit states. --competing-risk,labor market policy,individual and regional data

How Weather-Proof is the Construction Sector? Empirical Evidence from Germany

With the purpose to reduce winter unemployment and to promote all-season employment in the constructions sector, Germany maintains an extensive bad weather allowance system. Since the mid 1990s, these regulations have been subject to several reforms that resemble the range of approaches for employment promotion which can be found in other European countries. We analyse the effect of these reforms on individual unemployment risks using large individual administrative data merged with information about local weather conditions and the business cycle. We find a weaker direct link between seasonal layoffs and actual weather than broadly assumed, since most of the layoffs take place at fixed dates. The reforms under consideration have economically plausible effects; Regulations that limit an employer's financial burden reduce transitions to unemployment and render it less weather-dependent. --panel data,temporary layoffs,employment stability

Area interpolation in presence of measurement error and an application to German administrative data

"In many situations the applied researcher wants to combine different data sources without knowing the exact link and merging rule. This paper considers different interpolation methods for interpolating attributes from German labor office districts to German counties and vice versa. In particular, we apply dasymetric weighting as an alternative to simple area weighting both of which are based on estimated intersection areas. Since these estimates can be spurious, our theoretical framework extends the well-known Goodchild and Lam (1980) approach to the presence of measurement error in the underlying maps. We also present conditions under which the choice of interpolation method does not matter and confirm the theoretical results with a simulation study. Our application to German administrative data suggests robustness of estimation results of interpolated attributes with respect to the choice of interpolation method. We deliver weighting matrices for regional data sources of the two largest German data producers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Additional Information Anlage zum FDZ-Methodenreport Nr. 01/2006: Stata-Dateien mit den Gewichten: Gewichte.zipprozessproduzierte Daten, Statistisches Bundesamt, Landkreis, Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Arbeitsagenturbezirke, Datenqualität, Datenverarbeitung, Regionalgliederung, Kartierung, regionaler Vergleich, IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe, Wirtschaftsforschung, Arbeitsmarktforschung

Neural activity in the visual thalamus reflects perceptual suppression

To examine the role of the visual thalamus in perception, we recorded neural activity in the lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) and pulvinar of 2 macaque monkeys during a visual illusion that induced the intermittent perceptual suppression of a bright luminance patch. Neural responses were sorted on the basis of the trial-to-trial visibility of the stimulus, as reported by the animals. We found that neurons in the dorsal and ventral pulvinar, but not the LGN, showed changes in spiking rate according to stimulus visibility. Passive viewing control sessions showed such modulation to be independent of the monkeys' active report. Perceptual suppression was also accompanied by a marked drop in low-frequency power (9–30 Hz) of the local field potential (LFP) throughout the visual thalamus, but this modulation was not observed during passive viewing. Our findings demonstrate that visual responses of pulvinar neurons reflect the perceptual awareness of a stimulus, while those of LGN neurons do not

Bounds analysis of competing risks : a nonparametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration in Germany

"In this paper we derive nonparametric bounds for the cumulative incidence curve within a competing risks model with partly identified interval data. As an advantage over earlier attempts our approach also gives valid results in case of dependent competing risks. We apply our framework to empirically evaluate the effect of unemployment benefits on observed migration of unemployed workers in Germany. Our findings weakly indicate that reducing the entitlement length for unemployment benefits increases migration among high-skilled individuals." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Arbeitslosenunterstützung, Leistungsanspruch - Dauer, Binnenwanderung, regionale Mobilität, Wanderungsmotivation, Mobilitätsbereitschaft, Arbeitslose, Hochqualifizierte, IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe

Unemployment Duration in Germany: Individual and Regional Determinants of Local Job Finding, Migration and Subsidized Employment

Recent labor market reforms in Germany aim, among other things, at reducing unemployment by restricting passive unemployment measures, emphasizing local labor market policies and re-structuring public employment services. This paper uses extensive individual administrative and regional aggregate data to explore the extent to which these factors are likely to contribute to the shortening of unemployment duration. For this purpose, we estimate a semi-parametric duration model with three competing exit states. Our results suggest that changes in the unemployment compensation system rather than local employment policies and administrative restructuring efforts meet expected labor market outcomes. In addition, determinants of the length of unemployment vary across exit states

Map Intersection Based Merging Schemes for Administrative Data Sources and an Application to Germany

In many situations the applied researcher wants to combine different data sources without knowing the exact link and merging rule. This paper introduces a theoretical framework how two different regional administrative data sources can be merged. It presents different merging schemes based on the area size of intersections between both regional entities. Estimates of intersection areas are derived from a digital map intersection. The theoretical framework derives conditions for the unbiasedness of estimated intersections and merging rules. The paper also presents conditions under which the choice of merging rule does not matter and illustrates the theoretical results with a simulation study. An application to German counties and federal employment office districts illustrates the applicability of the approach. It delivers merging schemes for regional data sources of the federal German statistical office and of the federal German employment office

Bounds Analysis of Competing Risks: A Nonparametric Evaluation of the Effect of Unemployment Benefits on Imigration in Germany

In this paper we derive nonparametric bounds for the cumulative incidence curve within a competing risks model with partly identified interval data. As an advantage over earlier attempts our approach also gives valid results in case of dependent competing risks. We apply our framework to empirically evaluate the effect of unemployment benefits on observed migration of unemployed workers in Germany. Our findings weakly indicate that reducing the entitlement length for unemployment benefits increases migration among high-skilled individuals. --cumulative incidence curve,partially missing data,bounds analysis,difference-in-differences