Development of scenarios for land cover, population density, impervious cover, and conservation in New Hampshire, 2010–2100

Future changes in ecosystem services will depend heavily on changes in land cover and land use, which, in turn, are shaped by human activities. Given the challenges of predicting long-term changes in human behaviors and activities, scenarios provide a framework for simulating the long-term consequences of land-cover change on ecosystem function. As input for process-based models of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem function, we developed scenarios for land cover, population density, and impervious cover for the state of New Hampshire for 2020–2100. Key drivers of change were identified through information gathered from six sources: historical trends, existing plans relating to New Hampshire’s land-cover future, surveys, existing population scenarios, key informant interviews with diverse stakeholders, and input from subject-matter experts. Scenarios were developed in parallel with information gathering, with details added iteratively as new questions emerged. The final scenarios span a continuum from spatially dispersed development with a low value placed on ecosystem services (Backyard Amenities) to concentrated development with a high value placed on ecosystem services (the Community Amenities family). The Community family includes two population scenarios (Large Community and Small Community), to be combined with two scenarios for land cover (Protection of Wildlands and Promotion of Local Food), producing combinations that bring the total number of scenarios to six. Between Backyard Amenities and Community Amenities is a scenario based on linear extrapolations of current trends (Linear Trends). Custom models were used to simulate decadal change in land cover, population density, and impervious cover. We present raster maps and proportion of impervious cover for HUC10 watersheds under each scenario and discuss the trade-offs of our translation and modeling approach within the context of contemporary scenario projects

The Wildlands Project Outside North America

The Wildlands Project seeks to create a connected system of protected areas across North America that will ensure the survival of all native species, including top predators and wideranging species, in the context of fully functioning ecosystems. Core protected areas are designated based on the biological needs of key species and the requirements of critical ecological processes. To work they must have, or will be restored to have, those attributes traditionally ascribed to wilderness. Some critics argue that The Wildlands Project model is inapplicable to other parts of the world, especially the developing world. The inapplicability is based on nonbiological considerations. The applicability of Wildlands type conservation outside of North America is examined in light of largescale conservation work in Latin America and Asia. In both regions, conservation efforts similar to those of The Wildlands Project are underway and show promise. There are important differences, but the similarities are significant enough to suggest the approach can be applied. The similarities between conservation work in North America, Latin America, and Asia is attributable in some cases to Wildlands Project influence. In other cases, similarities are due to similar strategies emerging from similar conditions leading to species loss

Fact sheet: Restoring the ecological and social integrity of western forests

Unnatural wildfires and unprecedented insect and disease outbreaks threaten the ecological and social sustainability of many western wildlands. Among the most endangered of these wildlands are forests dominated by ponderosa pine. There are 3.4 million acres of these forests in Arizona alone

Valuing wildlands

Includes bibliographical references.Valuing wildlands is complex. (1) In a philosophically oriented analysis, I distinguish seven meaning levels of value, individual preference, market price, individual good, social preference, social good, organismic, and ecosystemic, and itemize twelve types of value carried by wildlands, economic, life support, recreational, scientific, genetic diversity, aesthetic, cultural symbolization, historical, character building, therapeutic, religious, and intrinsic. (2) I criticize contingent valuation efforts to price these values. (3) I then propose an axiological model, which interrelates the multiple levels and types of value, and some principles for wildland management policy

A coupled terrestrial and aquatic biogeophysical model of the Upper Merrimack River watershed, New Hampshire, to inform ecosystem services evaluation and management under climate and land-cover change

Accurate quantification of ecosystem services (ES) at regional scales is increasingly important for making informed decisions in the face of environmental change. We linked terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem process models to simulate the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrological and water quality characteristics related to ecosystem services. The linked model integrates two existing models (a forest ecosystem model and a river network model) to establish consistent responses to changing drivers across climate, terrestrial, and aquatic domains. The linked model is spatially distributed, accounts for terrestrial–aquatic and upstream–downstream linkages, and operates on a daily time-step, all characteristics needed to understand regional responses. The model was applied to the diverse landscapes of the Upper Merrimack River watershed, New Hampshire, USA. Potential changes in future environmental functions were evaluated using statistically downscaled global climate model simulations (both a high and low emission scenario) coupled with scenarios of changing land cover (centralized vs. dispersed land development) for the time period of 1980–2099. Projections of climate, land cover, and water quality were translated into a suite of environmental indicators that represent conditions relevant to important ecosystem services and were designed to be readily understood by the public. Model projections show that climate will have a greater influence on future aquatic ecosystem services (flooding, drinking water, fish habitat, and nitrogen export) than plausible changes in land cover. Minimal changes in aquatic environmental indicators are predicted through 2050, after which the high emissions scenarios show intensifying impacts. The spatially distributed modeling approach indicates that heavily populated portions of the watershed will show the strongest responses. Management of land cover could attenuate some of the changes associated with climate change and should be considered in future planning for the region

The Necessity of Changing What is Possible: Implementing Large-Scale Wildlands Protection

Presentation on the Wildlands Project approach to conservatio

Representative Rivers: An Experimental Research Program in River Recreation Management

Earlier attempts at synthesizing research needs and priorities were not fruitful. It became an exercise in which I subconsciously tried to produce a document that was acceptable through peer review. I styled my writing and format after other analyses that I had read. It seemed the natural thing to do - to look just like the others so mine would be accepted. At the same time, I tried to be different. It became a matter of shifting chairs around the table, but somehow the dinner still looked the same. I did not really realize what I was doing until Drs. Workman and Becker, in separate reviews, pointed out the problem. They simply said I was not covering new ground or even looking critically at river-recreation management. The second attempt was more progressive in terms of reviewing previous research and management theory, and proposing a new approach to river recreation management research; but it was too disjointed to be effective in communicating the problems of present research and means of overcoming those problems. At least one thing became clear - most of the research done in recreation, particularly river recreation, was based on survey research designs which required a lot of data-crunching and liberal interpretation. As reproved by W. G. Workman, "Torture the data until nature confesses." In fact, much of the belief in the process of survey research appears to be related to the apparent ability to overcome inadequacies of research design by simply increasing sample size and then manipulating that data until some significant relationship is noted .First I wish to say "thanks" to Dr. Ted Dyrness who had faith in me and pushed for the original cooperative agreement with the U. S. Forest Service, and who also offered two extensions of the agreement so the final report might move in a different direction than earlier versions. Dr. Roger Clark, who acted as the technical advisor and reviewer for the agreement, helped immensely in the molding of the direction of the project. Drs. Robert H. Becker and William G. Workman diagnosed my problem in trying to prepare an acceptable program. And Drs. Steve McCool, University of Montana, and Mike Manfredo, Oregon State University, pointed to the need for reorganization and a more comprehensive research program. Within my own bailiwick, Steve Cook's help in the development of the original manuscript is recognized and appreciated. And thanks to my wife, J o, who at least pretended to understand when I brought home the manuscript, spread it out on the supper table, and mumbled something about reviewers. This project was funded jointly by the Pacific Northwest Forest Experiment Station through the Institute of Northern Forestry and W -13 3 Regional Hatch Project here at the Agriculture Experiment Station, University of Alaska, Fairbanks

Colorado College State of the Rockies Report Card

The critical research topics for the 2008 Report Card include immigration, affordable housing, renewable energy resources, river restoration and restoration economies, and wildlands

Cascadia Wildlands v. Woodruff

Predator management has long been a source of contention among the general public, and few predators have had a more polarizing effect on the public than wolves. Cascadia Wildlands v. Woodruff is yet another example of the tension between conservationists and private interests. In this case, Wildlands opposed the federal government’s FONSI and EA regarding Wildlife Services’s involvement in assisting the WDFW to implement its Wolf Conservation and Management Plan. The district court determined that Wildlife Services had acted arbitrarily and vacated Wildlife Services’s FONSI and EA