Modelling the U.S. Federal Spending Process: Overview and Implications

The purpose of this paper is to show how inflation is endemic to the budgetary process of the United States Federal Government. We relate models of government expenditure to models of the economy, thus joining in theory what has in practice always been together. The description given -- although presented in summary rather than detail -- is based on hard statistical and econometric evidence amassed over more than a decade. We attempt to show that, while they are complex, the relevant processes can be modeled reasonably simply. We conclude that the forces influencing U.S. Federal expenditures -- bureaucratic, political and economic -- are too entrenched and powerful to be easily deflected from their current course. Although expenditures decline during restrictive periods, they do not decline by nearly as much as they previously increased; thus each cycle of spending begins from a higher base. After brief descriptions of the process by which fiscal and budgetary policy are formed in the name of the President and of the evolution of the broad pattern of Federal expenditure post World War II, we present simple, empirically supported models of the formation and coordination of budget requests, Congressional appropriations and the timing of Federal expenditures. Next we outline, by means of the comparative static analysis of a simple macroeconomic model with an endogenous government sector, the short and medium term economic implications of a government reacting -- through its wage bill, "mandatory" transfer payments and attempted fiscal policy -- to output, the price level and unemployment. When government involves a sizable proportion of economic activity, its budget deficit -- rather than private consumer and investment credit alone -- represents a major intertemporal credit demand, fueling both growth and inflation. In these circumstances a tight fiscal and monetary policy, which reduces this credit in response to inflation, can have precisely the opposite effect to that desired, namely, simultaneous stagnation and accelerating inflation. Finally, we speculate on the long term effects of the resulting growth of the public sector necessitated by short term political and economic forces in light of the slowly adapting nature of bureaucratic processes captured in our models

Resilience in the face of uncertainty: early lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic

The transboundary dynamics of COVID-19 present an unprecedented test of organisational resilience. In the UK, the National Health Service (NHS), a talisman of collective fortitude against disease and illness, has struggled to cope with inadequate provision of virus tests, ventilators, and personal protective equipment needed to fight the pandemic. In this paper, we reflect on the historic dynamics and strategic priorities that have undermined the NHS's attempts to navigate these troubled times. We invoke the organisational resilience literature to address 'the good, the bad and the ugly' of preparedness in readiness and response to the current pandemic. In particular, we draw on Meyer's (1982) seminal work on 'adaptation to jolts', excavating current preparedness failings. We argue an overreliance on perceived efficiency benefits of 'lean production' and 'just in time' continuity planning superseded strategic redundancy and slack in the system. This strategic focus was not simply the result of a failure in foresight, but rather a failure to act adaptively on knowledge of the known threats and weaknesses spotlighted by earlier projections of an inevitable pandemic threat. In conclusion, we consider how the UK Government and NHS must now undergo a phase of 'readjustment' in Meyer's terms, in light of these failings. We suggest that independent responsibility for national future preparedness should be handed to the NHS free from political interference. This would operate under the umbrella of a national emergency preparedness, resilience and response public body, enshrined in law, and similar in governance to the current Bank of England. This will help ensure that foresight is accompanied by durability and fortitude in safeguarding the UK against future pandemic threats

Budget Processes: Theory and Experimental Evidence

This paper studies budget processes, both theoretically and experimentally. We compare the outcomes of bottom-up and top-down budget processes. It is often presumed that a top-down budget process leads to a smaller overall budget than a bottom-up budget process. Ferejohn and Krehbiel (1987) showed theoretically that this need not be the case. We test experimentally the theoretical predictions of their work. The evidence from these experiments lends strong support to their theory, both at the aggregate and the individual subject level

Ideologies and their points of view

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016. It is well known that different arguments appeal to different people. We all process information in ways that are adapted to be consistent with our underlying ideologies. These ideologies can sometimes be framed in terms of particular axes or dimensions, which makes it possible to represent some aspects of an ideology as a region in the kind of vector space that is typical of many generalised quantum models. Such models can then be used to explain and predict, in broad strokes, whether a particular argument or proposal is likely to appeal to an individual with a particular ideology. The choice of suitable arguments to bring about desired actions is traditionally part of the art or science of rhetoric, and today’s highly polarised society means that this skill is becoming more important than ever. This paper presents a basic model for understanding how different goals will appeal to people with different ideologies, and thus how different rhetorical positions can be adopted to promote the same desired outcome. As an example, we consider different narratives and hence actions with respect to the environment and climate change, an important but currently highly controversial topic

Integrating modes of policy analysis and strategic management practice : requisite elements and dilemmas

There is a need to bring methods to bear on public problems that are inclusive, analytic, and quick. This paper describes the efforts of three pairs of academics working from three different though complementary theoretical foundations and intervention backgrounds (i.e., ways of working) who set out together to meet this challenge. Each of the three pairs had conducted dozens of interventions that had been regarded as successful or very successful by the client groups in dealing with complex policy and strategic problems. One approach focused on leadership issues and stakeholders, another on negotiating competitive strategic intent with attention to stakeholder responses, and the third on analysis of feedback ramifications in developing policies. This paper describes the 10 year longitudinal research project designed to address the above challenge. The important outcomes are reported: the requisite elements of a general integrated approach and the enduring puzzles and tensions that arose from seeking to design a wide-ranging multi-method approach

Evaluation Research and Institutional Pressures: Challenges in Public-Nonprofit Contracting

This article examines the connection between program evaluation research and decision-making by public managers. Drawing on neo-institutional theory, a framework is presented for diagnosing the pressures and conditions that lead alternatively toward or away the rational use of evaluation research. Three cases of public-nonprofit contracting for the delivery of major programs are presented to clarify the way coercive, mimetic, and normative pressures interfere with a sound connection being made between research and implementation. The article concludes by considering how public managers can respond to the isomorphic pressures in their environment that make it hard to act on data relating to program performance.This publication is Hauser Center Working Paper No. 23. The Hauser Center Working Paper Series was launched during the summer of 2000. The Series enables the Hauser Center to share with a broad audience important works-in-progress written by Hauser Center scholars and researchers