Defining model complexity: An ecological perspective

Models have become a key component of scientific hypothesis testing and climate and sustainability planning, as enabled by increased data availability and computing power. As a result, understanding how the perceived ‘complexity’ of a model corresponds to its accuracy and predictive power has become a prevalent research topic. However, a wide variety of definitions of model complexity have been proposed and used, leading to an imprecise understanding of what model complexity is and its consequences across research studies, study systems, and disciplines. Here, we propose a more explicit definition of model complexity, incorporating four facets—model class, model inputs, model parameters, and computational complexity—which are modulated by the complexity of the real-world process being modelled. We illustrate these facets with several examples drawn from ecological literature. Overall, we argue that precise terminology and metrics of model complexity (e.g., number of parameters, number of inputs) may be necessary to characterize the emergent outcomes of complexity, including model comparison, model performance, model transferability and decision support

Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on chlorophyll a in water bodies at global and regional scales

Prediction of primary production of lentic water bodies (i.e., lakes and reservoirs) is valuable to researchers and resource managers alike, but is very rarely done at the global scale.  With the development of remote sensing technologies, it is now feasible to gather large amounts of data across the world, including understudied and remote regions. To determine which factors were most important in explaining the variation of chlorophyll a (Chl-a), an indicator of primary production in water bodies, at global and regional scales, we first developed a geospatial database of 227 water bodies and watersheds with corresponding Chl-a, nutrient, hydrogeomorphic, and climate data. Then we used a generalized additive modeling approach and developed model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables for all 227 water bodies and for 51 lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region in the data set. Our best global model contained two hydrogeomorphic variables (water body surface area and the ratio of watershed to water body surface area) and a climate variable (average temperature in the warmest model selection criteria to select models that most parsimoniously related Chl-a to predictor variables quarter) and explained ~ 30% of variation in Chl-a. Our regional model contained one hydrogeomorphic variable (flow accumulation) and the same climate variable, but explained substantially more variation (58%). Our results indicate that a regional approach to watershed modeling may be more informative to predicting Chl-a, and that nearly a third of global variability in Chl-a may be explained using hydrogeomorphic and climate variables

REVIEW The social, economic, and environmental importance of inland fish and fisheries

Abstract: Though reported capture fisheries are dominated by marine production, inland fish and fisheries make substantial contributions to meeting the challenges faced by individuals, society, and the environment in a changing global landscape. Inland capture fisheries and aquaculture contribute over 40% to the world's reported finfish production from less than 0.01% of the total volume of water on earth. These fisheries provide food for billions and livelihoods for millions of people worldwide. Herein, using supporting evidence from the literature, we review 10 reasons why inland fish and fisheries are important to the individual (food security, economic security, empowerment), to society (cultural services, recreational services, human health and well-being, knowledge transfer and capacity building), and to the environment (ecosystem function and biodiversity, as aquatic "canaries", the "green food" movement). However, the current limitations to valuing the services provided by inland fish and fisheries make comparison with other water resource users extremely difficult. This list can serve to demonstrate the importance of inland fish and fisheries, a necessary first step to better incorporating them into agriculture, land-use, and water resource planning, where they are currently often underappreciated or ignored. Key words: food security, freshwater ecosystems, importance of fish, inland fisheries. Résumé : Bien que la capture de poissons rapportée par les pêcheries soit dominée par la production marine, les poissons et les pêcheries de l'intérieur des terres apportent des contributions substantielles pour rencontrer les défis rencontrés par les individus, les sociétés et l'environnement dans un paysage en changement global. Les captures des pêcheries de l'intérieur et l'aquaculture contribuent à la hauteur de 40 % à la production mondiale rapportée pour les poissons à nageoires, à partir de moins de 0,01 % du volume total de l'eau sur terre. Ces pêcheries fournissent de la nourriture pour des milliards et un moyen de subsistance pour des millions de gens, partout au monde. Dans cette revue, en utilisant des preuves venant de la littérature, les auteurs examinent 10 raisons pour lesquelles, les pêcheries et les poissons de l'intérieur sont importants pour les individus (sécurité alimentaire, sécurité économique, l'autonomisation), pour la société (services culturels, services récréatifs, santé humaine et bien-être, transfert de connaissances et capacité à construire) et pour l'environnement (fonction écosystémique et biodiversité, comme « canaris » aquatiques, pour le mouvement « aliments verts »). Cependant, les limitations actuelles pour évaluer les services fournis par les poissons et les pêcheries intérieures rendent les comparaisons avec les autres utilisateurs de la ressource en eau extrêmement difficile. Cette liste peut servir à démontrer l'importance des poissons et des pêcheries de l'intérieur, une première étape essentielle pour mieux les incorporer avec l'agriculture, l'utilisation du territoire et la planification des ressources en eau, où elles sont actuellement sous-estimées, voire totalement ignorées. [Traduit par la Rédaction] Mots-clés : sécurité alimentaire, écosystèmes d'eau douce, importance des poissons, pêcheries de l'intérieur

Predicting spring phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests: NEON phenology forecasting community challenge

480181-19C90 - Virginia Polytechinic Institute and State University; National Science FoundationPublished versio

Integrating Ecological Forecasting into Undergraduate Ecology Curricula with an R Shiny Application-Based Teaching Module

Ecological forecasting is an emerging approach to estimate the future state of an ecological system with uncertainty, allowing society to better manage ecosystem services. Ecological forecasting is a core mission of the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) and several federal agencies, yet, to date, forecasting training has focused on graduate students, representing a gap in undergraduate ecology curricula. In response, we developed a teaching module for the Macrosystems EDDIE (Environmental Data-Driven Inquiry and Exploration; MacrosystemsEDDIE.org) educational program to introduce ecological forecasting to undergraduate students through an interactive online tool built with R Shiny. To date, we have assessed this module, “Introduction to Ecological Forecasting,” at ten universities and two conference workshops with both undergraduate and graduate students (N = 136 total) and found that the module significantly increased undergraduate students’ ability to correctly define ecological forecasting terms and identify steps in the ecological forecasting cycle. Undergraduate and graduate students who completed the module showed increased familiarity with ecological forecasts and forecast uncertainty. These results suggest that integrating ecological forecasting into undergraduate ecology curricula will enhance students’ abilities to engage and understand complex ecological concepts

hlwander/bvr_zoops_code: Zooplankton exhibit multiple diel migration strategies and substantial interannual changes in community structure in a eutrophic reservoir: Code

<p>This code reproduces figures from the Beaverdam Reservoir multivariate zooplankton analysis in the manuscript by Wander et al. titled "Zooplankton community structure and diel migration patterns vary over hours, days, and years in the pelagic and littoral zone of a eutrophic reservoir".</p&gt

A new method to generate a high-resolution global distribution map of lake chlorophyll

A new method was developed, evaluated, and applied to generate a global dataset of growing-season chlorophyll-a (chl) concentrations in 2011 for freshwater lakes. Chl observations from freshwater lakes are valuable for estimating lake productivity as well as assessing the role that these lakes play in carbon budgets. The standard 4 km NASA OceanColor L3 chlorophyll concentration products generated from MODIS and MERIS sensor data are not sufficiently representative of global chl values because these can only resolve larger lakes, which generally have lower chl concentrations than lakes of smaller surface area. Our new methodology utilizes the 300 m-resolution MERIS full-resolution full-swath (FRS) global dataset as input and does not rely on the land mask used to generate standard NASA products, which masks many lakes that are otherwise resolvable in MERIS imagery. The new method produced chl concentration values for 78,938 and 1,074 lakes in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The mean chl for lakes visible in the MERIS composite was 19.2 ± 19.2, the median was 13.3, and the interquartile range was 3.90–28.6 mg m−3. The accuracy of the MERIS-derived values was assessed by comparison with temporally near-coincident and globally distributed in situmeasurements from the literature (n = 185, RMSE = 9.39, R2 = 0.72). This represents the first global-scale dataset of satellite-derived chl estimates for medium to large lakes

The social, economic, and environmental importance of inland fish and fisheries

Though reported capture fisheries are dominated by marine production, inland fish and fisheries make substantial contributions to meeting the challenges faced by individuals, society, and the environment in a changing global landscape. Inland capture fisheries and aquaculture contribute over 40% to the world’s reported finfish production from less than 0.01% of the total volume of water on earth. These fisheries provide food for billions and livelihoods for millions of people worldwide. Herein, using supporting evidence from the literature, we review ten reasons why inland fish and fisheries are important to the individual (food security; economic security; empowerment), to society (cultural services; recreational services; human health and well-being; knowledge transfer and capacity building) and to the environment (ecosystem function and biodiversity; as aquatic “canaries”; the “green food” movement). However, the current limitations to valuing the services provided by inland fish and fisheries make comparison with other water resource users extremely difficult. This list can serve to demonstrate the importance of inland fish and fisheries, a necessary first step to better incorporating them into agriculture, land-use, and water resource planning, where they are currently often underappreciated or ignored.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

A new method to generate a high-resolution global distribution map of lake chlorophyll

A new method was developed, evaluated, and applied to generate a global dataset of growing-season chlorophyll-a (chl) concentrations in 2011 for freshwater lakes. Chl observations from freshwater lakes are valuable for estimating lake productivity as well as assessing the role that these lakes play in carbon budgets. The standard 4 km NASA OceanColor L3 chlorophyll concentration products generated from MODIS and MERIS sensor data are not sufficiently representative of global chl values because these can only resolve larger lakes, which generally have lower chl concentrations than lakes of smaller surface area. Our new methodology utilizes the 300 m-resolution MERIS full-resolution full-swath (FRS) global dataset as input and does not rely on the land mask used to generate standard NASA products, which masks many lakes that are otherwise resolvable in MERIS imagery. The new method produced chl concentration values for 78,938 and 1,074 lakes in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The mean chl for lakes visible in the MERIS composite was 19.2 ± 19.2, the median was 13.3, and the interquartile range was 3.90–28.6 mg m−3. The accuracy of the MERIS-derived values was assessed by comparison with temporally near-coincident and globally distributed in situmeasurements from the literature (n = 185, RMSE = 9.39, R2 = 0.72). This represents the first global-scale dataset of satellite-derived chl estimates for medium to large lakes