Effect of Variable Selection Strategy on the Performance of Prognostic Models When Using Multiple Imputation

BACKGROUND: Variable selection is an important issue when developing prognostic models. Missing data occur frequently in clinical research. Multiple imputation is increasingly used to address the presence of missing data in clinical research. The effect of different variable selection strategies with multiply imputed data on the external performance of derived prognostic models has not been well examined. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used backward variable selection with 9 different ways to handle multiply imputed data in a derivation sample to develop logistic regression models for predicting death within 1 year of hospitalization with an acute myocardial infarction. We assessed the prognostic accuracy of each derived model in a temporally distinct validation sample. The derivation and validation samples consisted of 11524 patients hospitalized between 1999 and 2001 and 7889 patients hospitalized between 2004 and 2005, respectively. We considered 41 candidate predictor variables. Missing data occurred frequently, with only 13% of patients in the derivation sample and 31% of patients in the validation sample having complete data. Regardless of the significance level for variable selection, the prognostic model developed using only the complete cases in the derivation sample had substantially worse performance in the validation sample than did the models for which variables were selected using the multiply imputed versions of the derivation sample. The other 8 approaches to handling multiply imputed data resulted in prognostic models with performance similar to one another. CONCLUSIONS: Ignoring missing data and using only subjects with complete data can result in the derivation of prognostic models with poor performance. Multiple imputation should be used to account for missing data when developing prognostic models

Efficacy and effectiveness of the combination of sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine and a 3-day course of artesunate for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in a refugee settlement in Zambia.

In the Maheba Refugee Settlement, in the clinics supported by Medecins Sans Frontieres, all children aged up to 5 years with a confirmed diagnosis of uncomplicated falciparum malaria are treated with the combination of sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine (SP) and artesunate (AS). We compared the treatment's efficacy and effectiveness. Patients were randomized in order to receive the treatment supervised (efficacy) or unsupervised (effectiveness). Therapeutic response was determined after 28 days of follow up. The difference between recrudescence and re-infection was ascertained by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We also assessed genetic markers associated to SP resistance (dhfr and dhps). Eighty-five patients received treatment under supervision and 84 received it unsupervised. On day 28, and after PCR adjustment, efficacy was found to be 83.5% (95% CI: 74.1-90.5), and effectiveness 63.4% (95% CI: 52.6-73.3) (P < 0.01). Point mutations on dhfr (108) and dhps (437) were found for 92.0% and 44.2% respectively of the PCR samples analysed. The significant difference in therapeutic response after supervised and unsupervised treatment intake can only be explained by insufficient patient adherence. When implementing new malaria treatment policies, serious investment in ensuring patient adherence is essential to ascertain the effectiveness of the new treatment schedules

A High Deuterium Abundance at z=0.7

Of the light elements, the primordial abundance of deuterium, (D/H)_p, provides the most sensitive diagnostic for the cosmological mass density parameter Omega_B. Recent high redshift (D/H) measurements are highly discrepant, although this may reflect observational uncertainties. The larger (D/H) values, which imply a low Omega_B and require the Universe to be dominated by non-baryonic matter (dynamical studies indicate a higher total density parameter), cause problems for galactic chemical evolution models since they have difficulty in reproducing the large decline down to the lower present-day (D/H). Conversely, low (D/H) values imply an Omega_B greater than derived from ^7Li and ^4He abundance measurements, and may require a deuterium abundance evolution that is too low to easily explain. Here we report the first measurement at intermediate redshift, where the observational difficulties are smaller, of a gas cloud with ideal characteristics for this experiment. Our analysis of the z = 0.7010 absorber toward 1718+4807 indicates (D/H) = 2.0 +/- 0.5 x 10^{-4} which is in the high range. This and other independent observations suggests there may be a cosmological inhomogeneity in (D/H)_p of at least a factor of ten.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figur

Following basal stem rot in young oil palm plantings

The PCR primer GanET has previously been shown to be suitable for the specific amplification of DNA from Ganoderma boninense. A DNA extraction and PCR method has been developed that allows for the amplification of the G. boninense DNA from environmental samples of oil palm tissue. The GanET primer reaction was used in conjunction with a palm-sampling programme to investigate the possible infection of young palms through cut frond base surfaces. Ganoderma DNA was detected in frond base material at a greater frequency than would be expected by comparison with current infection levels. Comparisons are made between the height of the frond base infected, the number of frond bases infected, and subsequent development of basal stem rot. The preliminary results suggest that the development of basal stem rot may be more likely to occur when young lower frond bases are infected

Laparoendoscopic single-site (LESS) sacrocolpopexy: feasibility and efficacy of knotless procedure performed with conventional instruments

The aim of this paper was to report a case of a patient with stage IV vaginal vault prolapse treated by laparoendoscopic single-site (LESS) sacrocolpopexy using an Alexis retractor and a surgical glove attached to three trocars through a 3.5-cm umbilical incision. Only conventional laparoscopic instruments were used for intrabdominal dissection of vagina and peritoneum. The mesh was fixed to the vaginal fornix and to the sacral periosteum from the promontory using running sutures hold in the extremities by polymer clips. The posterior peritoneum was closed over the mesh. LESS sacrocolpopexy performed with conventional instruments is a difficult but feasible and efficient technique to treat vaginal vault prolapse that respects the principles of conventional laparoscopic or open repairs. Alexis retractor associated with knotless sutures are technical options that simplify LESS reconstructive surgical maneuvers

The self-dual classical double copy, and the Eguchi-Hanson instanton

The double copy is a map from non-abelian gauge theories to gravity, that has been demonstrated both for scattering amplitudes and exact classical solutions. In this study, we reconsider the double copy for exact solutions that are self-dual in either the gauge or gravity theory. In this case, one may formulate a general double copy in terms of a certain differential operator, which generates the gauge and gravity solutions from a harmonic function residing in a biadjoint scalar theory. As an illustration, we examine the single copy of the well-known Eguchi-Hanson instanton in gravity. The gauge field thus obtained represents an abelian-like object whose field is dipole-like at large distances, and which has no magnetic or electric charge.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures. Version 2 has additional references adde

Study protocol: evaluation of a parenting and stress management programme: a randomised controlled trial of Triple P discussion groups and stress control

&lt;br&gt;Background: Children displaying psychosocial problems are at an increased risk of negative developmental outcomes. Parenting practices are closely linked with child development and behaviour, and parenting programmes have been recommended in the treatment of child psychosocial problems. However, parental mental health also needs to be addressed when delivering parenting programmes as it is linked with parenting practices, child outcomes, and treatment outcomes of parenting programmes. This paper describes the protocol of a study examining the effects of a combined intervention of a parenting programme and a cognitive behavioural intervention for mental health problems.&lt;/br&gt; &lt;br&gt;Methods: The effects of a combined intervention of Triple P Discussion Groups and Stress Control will be examined using a randomised controlled trial design. Parents with a child aged 3?8?years will be recruited to take part in the study. After obtaining informed consent and pre-intervention measures, participants will be randomly assigned to either an intervention or a waitlist condition. The two primary outcomes for this study are change in dysfunctional/ineffective parenting practices and change in symptoms of depression, anxiety, and stress. Secondary outcomes are child behaviour problems, parenting experiences, parental self-efficacy, family relationships, and positive parental mental health. Demographic information, participant satisfaction with the intervention, and treatment fidelity data will also be collected. Data will be collected at pre-intervention, mid-intervention, post-intervention, and 3-month follow-up.&lt;/br&gt; &lt;br&gt;Discussion: The aim of this paper is to describe the study protocol of a randomised controlled trial evaluating the effects of a combined intervention of Triple P Discussion Groups and Stress Control in comparison to a waitlist condition. This study is important because it will provide evidence about the effects of this combined intervention for parents with 3?8?year old children. The results of the study could be used to inform policy about parenting support and support for parents with mental health problems. Trial registration ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT01777724, UTN: U1111-1137-1053.&lt;/br&gt

A MIQE-Compliant Real-Time PCR Assay for Aspergillus Detection

PMCID: PMC3393739This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited