Evaluating Geographically Weighted Regression Models for Environmental Chemical Risk Analysis

In the evaluation of cancer risk related to environmental chemical exposures, the effect of many correlated chemicals on disease is often of interest. The relationship between correlated environmental chemicals and health effects is not always constant across a study area, as exposure levels may change spatially due to various environmental factors. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been proposed to model spatially varying effects. However, concerns about collinearity effects, including regression coefficient sign reversal (ie, reversal paradox), may limit the applicability of GWR for environmental chemical risk analysis. A penalized version of GWR, the geographically weighted lasso, has been proposed to remediate the collinearity effects in GWR models. Our focus in this study was on assessing through a simulation study the ability of GWR and GWL to correctly identify spatially varying chemical effects for a mixture of correlated chemicals within a study area. Our results showed that GWR suffered from the reversal paradox, while GWL overpenalized the effects for the chemical most strongly related to the outcome

Assessment of Weighted Quantile Sum Regression for Modeling Chemical Mixtures and Cancer Risk

In evaluation of cancer risk related to environmental chemical exposures, the effect of many chemicals on disease is ultimately of interest. However, because of potentially strong correlations among chemicals that occur together, traditional regression methods suffer from collinearity effects, including regression coefficient sign reversal and variance inflation. In addition, penalized regression methods designed to remediate collinearity may have limitations in selecting the truly bad actors among many correlated components. The recently proposed method of weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression attempts to overcome these problems by estimating a body burden index, which identifies important chemicals in a mixture of correlated environmental chemicals. Our focus was on assessing through simulation studies the accuracy of WQS regression in detecting subsets of chemicals associated with health outcomes (binary and continuous) in site-specific analyses and in non-site-specific analyses. We also evaluated the performance of the penalized regres-sion methods of lasso, adaptive lasso, and elastic net in correctly classifying chemicals as bad actors or unrelated to the outcome. We based the simulation study on data from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Program (NCI-SEER) case–control study of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) to achieve realistic exposure situations. Our results showed that WQS regression had good sensitivity and specificity across a variety of conditions considered in this study. The shrinkage methods had a tendency to incorrectly identify a large number of components, especially in the case of strong association with the outcome

Toric and tropical Bertini theorems in positive characteristic

We generalize the toric Bertini theorem of Fuchs, Mantova, and Zannier to positive characteristic. A key part of the proof is a new algebraically closed field containing the field \kk(t_1,\dots,t_d) of rational functions over an algebraically closed field \kk of prime characteristic. As a corollary, we extend the tropical Bertini theorem of Maclagan and Yu to arbitrary characteristic, which removes the characteristic dependence from the d-connectivity result for tropical varieties from that paper

Star formation histories of dwarf galaxies in the FIRE simulations: dependence on mass and Local Group environment

We study star formation histories (SFHs) of $\simeq500$ dwarf galaxies (stellar mass $M_\ast = 10^5 - 10^9\,M_\odot$) from FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations. We compare dwarfs around individual Milky Way (MW)-mass galaxies, dwarfs in Local Group (LG)-like environments, and true field (i.e. isolated) dwarf galaxies. We reproduce observed trends wherein higher-mass dwarfs quench later (if at all), regardless of environment. We also identify differences between the environments, both in terms of "satellite vs. central" and "LG vs. individual MWvs. isolated dwarf central." Around the individual MW-mass hosts, we recover the result expected from environmental quenching: central galaxies in the "near field" have more extended SFHs than their satellite counterparts, with the former more closely resemble isolated ("true field") dwarfs (though near-field centrals are still somewhat earlier forming). However, this difference is muted in the LG-like environments, where both near-field centrals and satellites have similar SFHs, which resemble satellites of single MW-mass hosts. This distinction is strongest for $M_\ast = 10^6 - 10^7\,M_\odot$ but exists at other masses. Our results suggest that the paired halo nature of the LG may regulate star formation in dwarf galaxies even beyond the virial radii of the MW and Andromeda. Caution is needed when comparing zoom-in simulations targeting isolated dwarf galaxies against observed dwarf galaxies in the LG.Comment: Main text: 11 pages, 8 figures; appendices: 4 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to MNRAS; comments welcom

Concert recording 2021-11-08

[Track 1]. Six metamorphoses after Ovid. I. Pan ; IV. Bacchus ; V. Narcissus / Benjamin Britten -- [Track 2]. Wind quintet, op. 79. I. Allegro non troppo / August Klughardt -- [Track 3]. Shepherds of provence. I. Pastorale provencale ; II. Chant des berges provencaux (Call at dawn) ; III. Sous les etoiles (Beneath the stars) ; IV. Fete villageoise / Eugene Bozza -- [Track 4]. Trio, op. 87. I. Allegro / Ludwig van Beethoven -- [Track 5]. Brushstrokes. I. Monet / Alyssa Morris -- [Track 6]. The dark-eyed sailor / Ralph Vaughan Williams ; arranged by Bussick

Concert recording 2021-12-04

[Track 1]. Scherzo concertante / Vaclav Nehlybel -- [Track 2]. Sonata no. 3 for horn and piano. I. Moderately fast ; [Track 3]. II. Slow / Alec Wilder -- [Track 4]. Rondo in B♭ major / Arnold Cooke -- [Track 5]. Sonata for horn and piano. I. Hymn ; II. Riding to higher clouds / Margaret Brouwer -- [Track 6]. Horn concerto no. 3 in E♭ major, K. 447. I. Allegro ; II. Larghetto ; III. Allegro / W.A. Mozart -- [Track 7]. Reflections on a Southern hymn. I. Intonation ; IV. Wondrous love / Stephen Gryc -- [Track 8]. Umoja / Valerie Coleman -- [Track 9]. Amazing grace / arranged by Luther Henderson

Star formation histories of dwarf galaxies in the FIRE simulations: dependence on mass and Local Group environment

We study star formation histories (SFHs) of 500 dwarf galaxies (stellar mass M∗=10⁵−10⁹M⊙⁠) from FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations. We compare dwarfs around individual Milky Way (MW)-mass galaxies, dwarfs in Local Group (LG)-like environments, and true field (i.e. isolated) dwarf galaxies. We reproduce observed trends wherein higher mass dwarfs quench later (if at all), regardless of environment. We also identify differences between the environments, both in terms of ‘satellite versus central’ and ‘LG versus individual MW versus isolated dwarf central.’ Around the individual MW-mass hosts, we recover the result expected from environmental quenching: central galaxies in the ‘near field’ have more extended SFHs than their satellite counterparts, with the former more closely resemble isolated (true field) dwarfs (though near-field centrals are still somewhat earlier forming). However, this difference is muted in the LG-like environments, where both near-field centrals and satellites have similar SFHs, which resemble satellites of single MW-mass hosts. This distinction is strongest for M* = 10⁶–10⁷M⊙ but exists at other masses. Our results suggest that the paired halo nature of the LG may regulate star formation in dwarf galaxies even beyond the virial radii of the MW and Andromeda. Caution is needed when comparing zoom-in simulations targeting isolated dwarf galaxies against observed dwarf galaxies in the LG

Analysis of Environmental Chemical Mixtures and Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma Risk in the NCI-SEER NHL Study

Background: There are several suspected environmental risk factors for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). The associations between NHL and environmental chemical exposures have typically been evaluated for individual chemicals (i.e., one-by-one). Objectives: We determined the association between a mixture of 27 correlated chemicals measured in house dust and NHL risk. Methods: We conducted a population-based case–control study of NHL in four National Cancer Institute–Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results centers—Detroit, Michigan; Iowa; Los Angeles County, California; and Seattle, Washington—from 1998 to 2000. We used weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression to model the association of a mixture of chemicals and risk of NHL. The WQS index was a sum of weighted quartiles for 5 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), 7 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and 15 pesticides. We estimated chemical mixture weights and effects for study sites combined and for each site individually, and also for histologic subtypes of NHL. Results: The WQS index was statistically significantly associated with NHL overall [odds ratio (OR) = 1.30; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.56; p = 0.006; for one quartile increase] and in the study sites of Detroit (OR = 1.71; 95% CI: 1.02, 2.92; p = 0.045), Los Angeles (OR = 1.44; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.08; p = 0.049), and Iowa (OR = 1.76; 95% CI: 1.23, 2.53; p = 0.002). The index was marginally statistically significant in Seattle (OR = 1.39; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.99; p = 0.071). The most highly weighted chemicals for predicting risk overall were PCB congener 180 and propoxur. Highly weighted chemicals varied by study site; PCBs were more highly weighted in Detroit, and pesticides were more highly weighted in Iowa. Conclusions: An index of chemical mixtures was significantly associated with NHL. Our results show the importance of evaluating chemical mixtures when studying cancer risk

Realist Process Evaluation of the implementation and impact of an organisational cultural transformation programme in the Children and Young People's Secure Estate (CYPSE) in England : study protocol

Introduction Young people in contact with the youth justice system are more likely to present with complex ongoing needs than young people in the general population. To address this, the Framework for Integrated Care (SECURE STAIRS) is being implemented in the Children and Young People's Secure Estate: a 'whole systems' approach to support secure settings to develop trauma-informed and relationally based environments, supporting staff to provide consistent, therapeutic care. This paper aims to present the protocol for a national cohort study examining the impact and implementation of this cultural transformation programme. Methods and analysis A mixed-methods realist evaluation will be conducted. Data collection will take place between August 2018 and December 2020. Eighteen sites will collect routine service activity data and questionnaires completed by young people, parents/guardians and staff. Semi-structured interviews and non-participant observations will be conducted across five qualitative focus sites with young people and staff. An economic evaluation will examine value for money. The results will be triangulated at the analysis stage to gain an in-depth understanding of experiences. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval was granted by the Health Research Authority, Her Majesty's Prison and Probation Service and UCL Ethics Committee. Findings will be disseminated via project reports, site feedback, peer-reviewed journal publications and conference presentations