A Stochastic Analysis of Proposals for the New US Farm Bill

Most of the large scale modeling systems used in the analysis of agricultural policies produce deterministic projections. In reality, however, the agricultural sector is subject to a high degree of uncertainty as a result of fluctuations in exogenous factors such as the weather or macroeconomic variation. A stochastic approach can provide additional information to policy makers regarding the implications of this uncertainty, through the use of stochastically generated projections. This paper also shows how deterministic analysis may result in systematic errors in the projection of some variables. As an applied example, the FAPRI model of the US agricultural sector is simulated stochastically to analyse the impact of proposals for the new US farm bill.Stochastic simulation, US Farm Bill, policy analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy,

I\u27ll Take It for What It Is Worth -- The Use of Hearsay Evidence by Labor Arbitrators: A Primer and Modest Proposal

This article considers these and other selected problems dealing with hearsay evidence that are likely to be encountered in the arbitral forum. It is our thesis that arbitrators do and should credit some (but not all) forms of hearsay evidence, but that the arbitral process is not served by admitting all evidence and taking it for what it is worth. Further, we believe when an advocate\u27s case against a grievant consists entirely of hearsay evidence, and there is no reliable substitute for cross examination or equivalent circumstantial guarantees of trustworthiness, the grievant should prevail. Only in the rarest of cases will management prevail when its evidence consists entirely of hearsay evidence

The Influence of Oral Contraceptive Knowledge on Oral Contraceptive Continuation Among Young Women

Background: Using a multidimensional approach, we assessed young women's knowledge of oral contraceptives (OC) and its influence on OC continuation rates. Methods: We used data from 659 women aged 13?25 years participating in a randomized controlled trial of an educational text message OC continuation intervention. Women received 6 months of daily text messages or routine care. At baseline and 6 months, we administered a comprehensive 41-item questionnaire measuring knowledge of OC's mechanism, effectiveness, use, side effects, risks, and benefits. We ascertained OC continuation status and reasons for discontinuation at 6 months. We analyzed relationships between OC knowledge and continuation with multivariable logistic regression. Results: Young women scored, on average, 22.8 out of 41 points on the OC knowledge assessment at baseline and 24.7 points at 6 months. The 6-month OC continuation rate was 59%. OC continuers had >2-points-higher OC knowledge scores at 6 months than discontinuers (p2 points lower than women who discontinued for other reasons (p-values<0.001). In multivariable regression models, each correct response on the baseline and 6-month knowledge assessments was associated with a 4% and 6% increased odds of OC continuation, respectively. Six-month OC knowledge scores were negatively associated with OC discontinuation due to side effects (odds ratio [OR] 0.94) and forgetfulness (OR 0.88). Conclusions: OC knowledge, which was low among young women in our study, was associated with OC continuation and common reasons for discontinuation. Continued efforts to characterize relationships between OC knowledge and behavior and to test the effectiveness of different components of interventions aimed at increasing knowledge, addressing side effects, and improving use of OCs are warranted.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/140126/1/jwh.2013.4574.pd

A State-Level Agricultural Sector Policy Model: Baseline and Implications of the Dunkel Text on Agriculture for Iowa

A better understanding of the relationship between a state\u27s agricultural sector and the national agricultural economy increases the ability of agricultural interest groups to anticipate and understand policy developments. This paper develops and documents a state-level model of the Iowa agricultural sector. The model is used to evaluate the future performance of the Iowa agricultural economy, given a specific set of assumptions about the general economy, agricultural policies, the weather, and technology change. When the model is used to analyze the implications of the Dunkel text on agriculture, the increase in Iowa net farm income is found to be proportionally higher then the increase in U.S. net farm income, because Iowa\u27s agricultural economy is concentrated in commodities that benefit from the Dunkel text

Игровые технологии на английском языке в курсе "Микроэкономика"

В современных условиях профессиональная подготовка специалиста требует знание иностранного языка на уровне, позволяющем свободно общаться, читать, находить необходимую информацию. В статье анализируется игра как активный метод обучения, позволяющая реализовать иноязычную коммуникативную компетенцию в курсе"Микроэкономика"

Representational similarity analysis offers a preview of the noradrenergic modulation of long-term fear memory at the time of encoding

Neuroimaging research on emotional memory has greatly advanced our understanding of the pathogenesis of anxiety disorders. While the behavioral expression of fear at the time of encoding does not predict whether an aversive experience will evolve into long-term fear memory, the application of multi-voxel pattern analysis (MVPA) for the analysis of BOLD-MRI data has recently provided a unique marker for memory formation. Here, we aimed to further investigate the utility of this marker by modulating the strength of fear memory with an α2-adrenoceptor antagonist (yohimbine HCl). Fifty-two healthy participants were randomly assigned to two conditions - either receiving 20 mg yohimbine or a placebo pill (double-blind) - prior to differential fear conditioning and MRI-scanning. We examined the strength of fear associations during acquisition and retention of fear (48 h later) by assessing the similarity of BOLD-MRI patterns and pupil dilation responses. Additionally, participants returned for a follow-up test outside the scanner (2-4 weeks), during which we assessed fear-potentiated startle responses. Replicating our previous findings, neural pattern similarity reflected the development of fear associations over time, and unlike average activation or pupil dilation, predicted the later expression of fear memory (pupil dilation 48 h later). While no effect of yohimbine was observed on markers of autonomic arousal, including salivary α-amylase (sAA), we obtained indirect evidence for the noradrenergic enhancement of fear memory consolidation: sAA levels showed a strong increase prior to fMRI scanning, irrespective of whether participants had received yohimbine, and this increase correlated with the subsequent expression of fear (48 h later). Remarkably, this noradrenergic enhancement of fear was associated with changes in neural response patterns at the time of learning. These findings provide further evidence that representational similarity analysis is a sensitive tool for studying (enhanced) memory formation

Lactose and benign ovarian tumours in a case–control study

We investigated the relation between benign ovarian tumours and lactose among 746 case women identified at seven New York metropolitan hospitals and 404 community controls, age and hospital frequency matched to the expected case distribution. No increase in risk was found for lactose (highest quartile versus lowest: adjusted odds ratio = 0.82 (95% CI 0.57–1.20) or for any other lactose foods. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co