Price Determination for Corn and Wheat: The Role of Market Factors and Government Programs

Annual models for U.S. farm prices for corn and wheat are developed based on market factors as well as government agricultural commodity programs. The pricing relationships utilize a stocks-to-use modeling framework to capture the effects of market supply and demand factors on price determination. This formulation is augmented by factors that represent the changing role of agricultural policies, particularly government price support and stockholding programs. For wheat, international market effects as well as wheat feed use and related crosscommodity pricing considerations also are included. Model properties and model performance measures are presented. Additionally, recent price-forecasting applications of the models are discussed. The relatively simple structure of the estimated price models and their small data requirements lend themselves to use in price-forecasting applications in conjunction with market analysis of supply and demand conditions. In particular, the models have been implemented into USDAís short-term market analysis and long-term baseline projections. In these applications, the models provide an analytical framework to forecast prices and a vehicle for making consistency checks among the Departmentís supply, demand, and price forecasts.corn, wheat, farm price, price determination, stocks-to-use ratio, price supports, commodity programs, forecasts, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis,

ANALYSIS OF THE U.S. COMMODITY LOAN PROGRAM WITH MARKETING LOAN PROVISIONS

Over the next several years, crop prices are projected to be below to slightly above commodity loan rates. As a result, marketing loan benefits to farmers, in the form of loan deficiency payments and marketing loan gains from the commodity loan program, are likely to continue to be sizeable. The level of realized per-unit revenues facilitated by marketing loans exceeds commodity loan rates, thereby raising expected net returns to farmers. Model simulations show that the loan program can raise total acreage planted to major field crops, generally increasing levels of domestic use and exports while lowering crop prices. Cross-commodity effects of supply response to relative returns (including marketing loan benefits), however, result in acreage shifts among competing crops, which can lead to reductions in plantings of some crops in some years. Most impacts occur in the years when there are marketing loan benefits, with little effect in subsequent years when prices rise high enough to eliminate marketing loan benefits. The livestock sector benefits from these outcomes because of generally lower feed costs.Commodity loans, marketing loans, nonrecourse loans, loan deficiency payments, price support, commodity programs, Agricultural Finance,

U.S. COTTON SUPPLY RESPONSE UNDER THE 2002 FARM ACT

Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007

This report provides baseline projections for international supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural commodities to 2007. It is a companion report to USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections, providing the foreign country details supporting those projections. Projections of strong global economic growth, particularly in developing countries, combined with more open foreign markets and the emergence of China as a major bulk commodity importer, support strong projected gains in U.S. farm exports. The value of total U.S. agricultural exports is projected to rise from a record $57.3 billion in FY 1997 to nearly$85 billion in 2007. The projections were completed based on information available as of December 1997, and reflect a composite of model results and analyst judgment.agriculture, commodities, international, projections, supply, use, trade, Production Economics,

Domestic Support for the U.S. Rice Sector and the WTO: Implications of the 2002 Farm Act

The U.S. rice sector is expected to receive some of the largest relative support under the 2002 Farm Act. USDA's rice baseline model is used to compute marketing loan benefits, while direct payments and counter-cyclical payments are estimated from endogenous prices and exogenous policy parameters. Alternative scenarios of reduced marketing loan benefits suggest that projected annual average sector revenue could decline by 4 to 27 percent.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Economic Analysis of Base Acre and Payment Yield Designations Under the 2002 U.S. Farm Act

The 2002 Farm Act provided farmland owners the opportunity to update commodity program base acres and payment yields used for calculating selected program benefits. Findings in this report suggest that farmland owners responded to economic incentives in these decisions, selecting those options for designating base acres that resulted in the greatest expected flow of program payments. Decisions of farmland owners in South Dakota, in upland cotton area, and in the Heartland region support the payment-maximization argument. In general, landowners favored maximizing payments over aligning base acres to current or recent plantings. Farmland owners with high-payment base acres, such as rice and cotton, held on to these base acres and, whenever possible, expanded them. Analogously, landowners with low-payment commodity base acres, such as oats and barley, switched to higher payment commodities whenever possible.base, 2002 Farm Act, direct payments, counter-cyclical payments, production flexibility contract payments, base acres, program yields, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management,

SUPPLY RESPONSE UNDER THE 1996 FARM ACT AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE U.S. FIELD CROPS SECTOR

The 1996 Farm Act gives farmers almost complete planting flexibility, allowing producers to respond to price changes to a greater extent than they had under previous legislation. This study measures supply responsiveness for major field crops to changes in their own prices and in prices for competing crops and indicates significant increases in responsiveness. Relative to 1986-90, the percentage increases in the responsiveness of U.S. plantings of major field crops to a 1-percent change in their own prices are wheat (1.2 percent), corn (41.6 percent), soybeans (13.5 percent), and cotton (7.9 percent). In percentage terms, the increases in the responsiveness generally become greater with respect to competing crops' price changes. The 1996 legislation has the least effect on U.S. wheat acreage, whereas the law may lead to an average increase of 2 million acres during 1996-2005 in soybean acreage, a decline of 1-2 million acres in corn acreage, and an increase of 0.7 million acres in cotton acreage. Overall, the effect of the farm legislation on regional production patterns of major field crops appears to be modest. Corn acreage expansion in the Central and Northern Plains, a long-term trend in this important wheat production region, will slow under the 1996 legislation, while soybean acreage expansion in this region will accelerate. The authors used the Policy Analysis System-Economic Research Service (POLYSYS-ERS) model that was jointly developed by USDA's Economic Research Service and the University of Tennessee's Agricultural Policy Analysis Center to estimate the effects of the 1996 legislation.Supply response, major field crops, acreage price elasticities, normal flex acreage (NFA), 1996 farm legislation., Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

DECOUPLED PAYMENTS IN A CHANGING POLICY SETTING

The studies in this report analyze the effects of decoupled payments in the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act on recipient households, and assess land, labor, risk management, and capital market conditions that can lead to links between decoupled payments and production choices. Each study contributes a different perspective to understanding the response of U.S. farm households and production to decoupled income transfers. Some use new microdata on farm households collected through USDA's Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), initiated in 1996, and its predecessor survey. These data are used to compare household and producer behavior and outcomes before and after the FAIR Act. Other studies use applied or conceptual models to characterize the impact of introducing decoupled payments. Collectively, the chapters represent an early stage in the empirical analysis of decoupled payments. The studies address many aspects of the payments' household impacts but remaining issues call for additional analysis. As the analytical paradigm changes with the evolution of farm programs, the development of appropriate data and models will improve our understanding of farm program impacts on the behavior and well-being of U.S. farm households, and the agricultural sector.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Tele-branding in TVIII: the network as brand and the programme as brand

In the era of TVIII, characterized by deregulation, multimedia conglomeration, expansion and increased competition, branding has emerged as a central industrial practice. Focusing on the case of HBO, a particularly successful brand in TVIII, this article argues that branding can be understood not simply as a feature of television networks, but also as a characteristic of television programmes. It begins by examining how the network as brand is constructed and conveyed to the consumer through the use of logos, slogans and programmes. The role of programmes in the construction of brand identity is then complicated by examining the sale of programmes abroad, where programmes can be seen to contribute to the brand identity of more than one network. The article then goes on to examine programme merchandising, an increasingly central strategy in TVIII. Through an analysis of different merchandising strategies the article argues that programmes have come to act as brands in their own right, and demonstrates that the academic study of branding not only reveals the development of new industrial practices, but also offers a way of understanding the television programme and its consumption by viewers in a period when the texts of television are increasingly extended across a range of media platforms

International consensus guidelines for the diagnosis and management of food protein–induced enterocolitis syndrome: Executive summary—Workgroup Report of the Adverse Reactions to Foods Committee, American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology

Food protein-induced enterocolitis (FPIES) is a non-IgE cell- mediated food allergy that can be severe and lead to shock. Despite the potential seriousness of reactions, awareness of FPIES is low; high-quality studies providing insight into the pathophysiology, diagnosis, and management are lacking; and clinical outcomes are poorly established. This consensus document is the result of work done by an international workgroup convened through the Adverse Reactions to Foods Committee of the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology and the International FPIES Association advocacy group. These are the first international evidence-based guidelines to improve the diagnosis and management of patients with FPIES. Research on prevalence, pathophysiology, diagnostic markers, and future treatments is necessary to improve the care of patients with FPIES. These guidelines will be updated periodically as more evidence becomes available