Price Determination for Corn and Wheat: The Role of Market Factors and Government Programs

Annual models for U.S. farm prices for corn and wheat are developed based on market factors as well as government agricultural commodity programs. The pricing relationships utilize a stocks-to-use modeling framework to capture the effects of market supply and demand factors on price determination. This formulation is augmented by factors that represent the changing role of agricultural policies, particularly government price support and stockholding programs. For wheat, international market effects as well as wheat feed use and related crosscommodity pricing considerations also are included. Model properties and model performance measures are presented. Additionally, recent price-forecasting applications of the models are discussed. The relatively simple structure of the estimated price models and their small data requirements lend themselves to use in price-forecasting applications in conjunction with market analysis of supply and demand conditions. In particular, the models have been implemented into USDAís short-term market analysis and long-term baseline projections. In these applications, the models provide an analytical framework to forecast prices and a vehicle for making consistency checks among the Departmentís supply, demand, and price forecasts.corn, wheat, farm price, price determination, stocks-to-use ratio, price supports, commodity programs, forecasts, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis,

ANALYSIS OF THE U.S. COMMODITY LOAN PROGRAM WITH MARKETING LOAN PROVISIONS

Over the next several years, crop prices are projected to be below to slightly above commodity loan rates. As a result, marketing loan benefits to farmers, in the form of loan deficiency payments and marketing loan gains from the commodity loan program, are likely to continue to be sizeable. The level of realized per-unit revenues facilitated by marketing loans exceeds commodity loan rates, thereby raising expected net returns to farmers. Model simulations show that the loan program can raise total acreage planted to major field crops, generally increasing levels of domestic use and exports while lowering crop prices. Cross-commodity effects of supply response to relative returns (including marketing loan benefits), however, result in acreage shifts among competing crops, which can lead to reductions in plantings of some crops in some years. Most impacts occur in the years when there are marketing loan benefits, with little effect in subsequent years when prices rise high enough to eliminate marketing loan benefits. The livestock sector benefits from these outcomes because of generally lower feed costs.Commodity loans, marketing loans, nonrecourse loans, loan deficiency payments, price support, commodity programs, Agricultural Finance,

U.S. COTTON SUPPLY RESPONSE UNDER THE 2002 FARM ACT

Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

International Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007

This report provides baseline projections for international supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural commodities to 2007. It is a companion report to USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections, providing the foreign country details supporting those projections. Projections of strong global economic growth, particularly in developing countries, combined with more open foreign markets and the emergence of China as a major bulk commodity importer, support strong projected gains in U.S. farm exports. The value of total U.S. agricultural exports is projected to rise from a record $57.3 billion in FY 1997 to nearly$85 billion in 2007. The projections were completed based on information available as of December 1997, and reflect a composite of model results and analyst judgment.agriculture, commodities, international, projections, supply, use, trade, Production Economics,

Domestic Support for the U.S. Rice Sector and the WTO: Implications of the 2002 Farm Act

The U.S. rice sector is expected to receive some of the largest relative support under the 2002 Farm Act. USDA's rice baseline model is used to compute marketing loan benefits, while direct payments and counter-cyclical payments are estimated from endogenous prices and exogenous policy parameters. Alternative scenarios of reduced marketing loan benefits suggest that projected annual average sector revenue could decline by 4 to 27 percent.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Economic Analysis of Base Acre and Payment Yield Designations Under the 2002 U.S. Farm Act

The 2002 Farm Act provided farmland owners the opportunity to update commodity program base acres and payment yields used for calculating selected program benefits. Findings in this report suggest that farmland owners responded to economic incentives in these decisions, selecting those options for designating base acres that resulted in the greatest expected flow of program payments. Decisions of farmland owners in South Dakota, in upland cotton area, and in the Heartland region support the payment-maximization argument. In general, landowners favored maximizing payments over aligning base acres to current or recent plantings. Farmland owners with high-payment base acres, such as rice and cotton, held on to these base acres and, whenever possible, expanded them. Analogously, landowners with low-payment commodity base acres, such as oats and barley, switched to higher payment commodities whenever possible.base, 2002 Farm Act, direct payments, counter-cyclical payments, production flexibility contract payments, base acres, program yields, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management,

Investigation of the fundamental constants stability based on the reactor Oklo burn-up analysis

The burn-up for SC56-1472 sample of the natural Oklo reactor zone 3 was calculated using the modern Monte Carlo codes. We reconstructed the neutron spectrum in the core by means of the isotope ratios: $^{147}$Sm/$^{148}$Sm and $^{176}$Lu/$^{175}$Lu. These ratios unambiguously determine the spectrum index and core temperature. The effective neutron absorption cross section of $^{149}$Sm calculated using this spectrum was compared with experimental one. The disagreement between these two values allows to limit a possible shift of the low laying resonance of $^{149}$Sm even more . Then, these limits were converted to the limits for the change of the fine structure constant $\alpha$. We found that for the rate of $\alpha$ change the inequality $|\delta \dot{\alpha}/\alpha| \le 5\cdot 10^{-18}$ is fulfilled, which is of the next higher order than our previous limit.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figure