Element Abundance Determination in Hot Evolved Stars

The hydrogen-deficiency in extremely hot post-AGB stars of spectral class PG1159 is probably caused by a (very) late helium-shell flash or a AGB final thermal pulse that consumes the hydrogen envelope, exposing the usually-hidden intershell region. Thus, the photospheric element abundances of these stars allow us to draw conclusions about details of nuclear burning and mixing processes in the precursor AGB stars. We compare predicted element abundances to those determined by quantitative spectral analyses performed with advanced non-LTE model atmospheres. A good qualitative and quantitative agreement is found for many species (He, C, N, O, Ne, F, Si, Ar) but discrepancies for others (P, S, Fe) point at shortcomings in stellar evolution models for AGB stars. Almost all of the chemical trace elements in these hot stars can only be identified in the UV spectral range. The Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer and the Hubble Space Telescope played a crucial role for this research.Comment: To appear in: Recent Advances in Spectroscopy: Theoretical, Astrophysical, and Experimental Perspectives, Proceedings, Jan 28 - 31, 2009, Kodaikanal, India (Springer

Magnitude Uncertainties Impact Seismic Rate Estimates, Forecasts and Predictability Experiments

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aims to prospectively test time-dependent earthquake probability forecasts on their consistency with observations. To compete, time-dependent seismicity models are calibrated on earthquake catalog data. But catalogs contain much observational uncertainty. We study the impact of magnitude uncertainties on rate estimates in clustering models, on their forecasts and on their evaluation by CSEP's consistency tests. First, we quantify magnitude uncertainties. We find that magnitude uncertainty is more heavy-tailed than a Gaussian, such as a double-sided exponential distribution, with scale parameter nu_c=0.1 - 0.3. Second, we study the impact of such noise on the forecasts of a simple clustering model which captures the main ingredients of popular short term models. We prove that the deviations of noisy forecasts from an exact forecast are power law distributed in the tail with exponent alpha=1/(a*nu_c), where a is the exponent of the productivity law of aftershocks. We further prove that the typical scale of the fluctuations remains sensitively dependent on the specific catalog. Third, we study how noisy forecasts are evaluated in CSEP consistency tests. Noisy forecasts are rejected more frequently than expected for a given confidence limit. The Poisson assumption of the consistency tests is inadequate for short-term forecast evaluations. To capture the idiosyncrasies of each model together with any propagating uncertainties, the forecasts need to specify the entire likelihood distribution of seismic rates.Comment: 35 pages, including 15 figures, agu styl

Comment on "Analysis of the Spatial Distribution between Successive Earthquakes" by Davidsen and Paczuski

By analyzing a southern California earthquake catalog, Davidsen and Paczuski [Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 048501 (2005)] claim to have found evidence contradicting the theory of aftershock zone scaling in favor of scale-free statistics. We present four elements showing that Davidsen and Paczuski's results may be insensitive to the existence of physical length scales associated with aftershock zones or mainshock rupture lengths, so that their claim is unsubstantiated. (i) Their exponent smaller than 1 for a pdf implies that the power law statistics they report is at best an intermediate asymptotic; (ii) their power law is not robust to the removal of 6 months of data around Landers earthquake within a period of 17 years; (iii) the same analysis for Japan and northern California shows no evidence of robust power laws; (iv) a statistical model of earthquake triggering that explicitely obeys aftershock zone scaling can reproduce the observed histogram of Davidsen and Paczuski, demonstrating that their statistic may not be sensitive to the presence of characteristic scales associated with earthquake triggering

A deterministic model for the occurrence and dynamics of multiple mutations in hierarchically organized tissues

We model a general, hierarchically organized tissue by a multi compartment approach, allowing any number of mutations within a cell. We derive closed solutions for the deterministic clonal dynamics and the reproductive capacity of single clones. Our results hold for the average dynamics in a hierarchical tissue characterized by an arbitrary combination of proliferation parameters.Comment: 4 figures, to appear in Royal Society Interfac

Deposing the Cool Corona of KPD 0005+5106

The ROSAT PSPC pulse height spectrum of the peculiar He-rich hot white dwarf KPD 0005+5106 provided a great surprise when first analysed by Fleming, Werner & Barstow (1993). It defied the best non-LTE modelling attempts in terms of photospheric emission from He-dominated atmospheres including C, N and O and was instead interpreted as the first evidence for a coronal plasma around a white dwarf. We show here that a recent high resolution Chandra LETGS spectrum has more structure than expected from a thermal bremsstrahlung continuum and lacks the narrow lines of H-like and He-like C expected from a coronal plasma. Moreover, a coronal model requires a total luminosity more than two orders of magnitude larger than that of the star itself. Instead, the observed 20-80 AA flux is consistent with photospheric models containing trace amounts of heavier elements such as Fe. The soft X-ray flux is highly sensitive to the adopted metal abundance and provides a metal abundance diagnostic. The weak X-ray emission at 1 keV announced by O'Dwyer et al (2003) instead cannot arise from the photosphere and requires alternative explanations. We echo earlier speculation that such emission arises in a shocked wind. Despite the presence of UV-optical O VIII lines from transitions between levels n=7-10, no X-ray O VIII Ly alpha flux is detected. We show that O VIII Lyman photons can be trapped by resonant scattering within the emitting plasma and destroyed by photoelectric absorption.Comment: 15 Pages, 4 figures. Accepted for the Astrophysical Journa

A combination of soluble helper factors bypasses the requirement for stimulator cells and induces nonspecific cytotoxic T cell responses

The specificity of cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses generated in the presence of lymphokines was studied. Thymic responder cells were activated in the presence of stimulator cells that differed in their metabolic activity. After 5 days of culture, the cytotoxic response was estimated in a 4-h 51Cr-release test. Coculture of thymic responders with irradiated splenic stimulator cells in the presence of interleukin 2(IL 2) led to preferential cytolysis of target cells that expressed the same histocompatibility antigens as the cells used for sensitization. Addition of T cell cytotoxicity-inducing factor 1 (TCF1), however, to those cultures made the presence of stimulator cells unnecessary and induced cytotoxic responses against all target cells tested, including target cells syngeneic to the responder cells. This activation was neither due to contaminating mitogen nor to the effect of heterologous serum in the assay system. The conclusion of these findings was that either polyclonal activation of CTL was induced by TCF1 or that some specific CTL clones differentiated into unrestricted killer cells under the influence of TCF1