PreSEIS: A Neural Network-Based Approach to Earthquake Early Warning for Finite Faults

The major challenge in the development of earthquake early warning (EEW) systems is the achievement of a robust performance at largest possible warning time. We have developed a new method for EEW—called PreSEIS (Pre-SEISmic)—that is as quick as methods that are based on single station observations and, at the same time, shows a higher robustness than most other approaches. At regular timesteps after the triggering of the first EEW sensor, PreSEIS estimates the most likely source parameters of an earthquake using the available information on ground motions at different sensors in a seismic network. The approach is based on two-layer feed-forward neural networks to estimate the earthquake hypocenter location, its moment magnitude, and the expansion of the evolving seismic rupture. When applied to the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System (IERREWS), PreSEIS estimates the moment magnitudes of 280 simulated finite faults scenarios (4.5≤M≤7.5) with errors of less than ±0.8 units after 0.5 sec, ±0.5 units after 7.5 sec, and ±0.3 units after 15.0 sec. In the same time intervals, the mean location errors can be reduced from 10 km over 6 km to less than 5 km, respectively. Our analyses show that the uncertainties of the estimated parameters (and thus of the warnings) decrease with time. This reveals a trade-off between the reliability of the warning on the one hand, and the remaining warning time on the other hand. Moreover, the ongoing update of predictions with time allows PreSEIS to handle complex ruptures, in which the largest fault slips do not occur close to the point of rupture initiation. The estimated expansions of the seismic ruptures lead to a clear enhancement of alert maps, which visualize the level and distribution of likely ground shaking in the affected region seconds before seismic waves will arrive

Fluid-induced seismicity : Comparison of rate- and state- and critical pressure theory

nduced seismicity as generated by the injection of fluids in a homogeneous, permeable medium with faults with variable proximity to rupture conditions is simulated using the rate- and state-dependent frictional fault theory (RST) of Dieterich (J Geophys Res 99(B2):2601-2618, 1994) and the critical pressure theory (CPT) developed by Shapiro (Fluid-induced seismicity, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2015). In CPT, the induced local seismicity density is proportional to the pressure rate, limited by the Kaiser Effect, and apparently un-related to the tectonic background seismicity. There is no time delay between a change in pressure rate and seismicity density. As a more complex theory, RST includes a time delay between a pressure change and induced seismicity and it is proportional to the natural tectonic background seismicity. Comparing both modelling approaches at a fixed location, this delay can be significant, dependent on a ‘free’ parameter that represents the lower threshold for pressure below which seismicity is not triggered. This parameter can be tuned so that the results of CPT and RST become similar. Approximations of the RST allow a new interpretation of the parameter ‘tectonic potential’ that controls the level of induced seismicity in CPT

Empirical assessment of nonlinear seismic demand of mainshock-aftershock ground motion sequences for Japanese earthquakes

This study investigates the effects of earthquake types, magnitudes, and hysteretic behavior on the peak and residual ductility demands of inelastic single-degree-of-freedom systems and evaluates the effects of major aftershocks on the nonlinear structural responses. An extensive dataset of real mainshock-aftershock sequences for Japanese earthquakes is developed. The constructed dataset is large, compared with previous datasets of similar kinds, and includes numerous sequences from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, facilitating an investigation of spatial aspects of the aftershock effects. The empirical assessment of peak and residual ductility demands of numerous inelastic systems having different vibration periods, yield strengths, and hysteretic characteristics indicates that the increase in seismic demand measures due to aftershocks occurs rarely but can be significant. For a large mega-thrust subduction earthquake, a critical factor for major aftershock damage is the spatial occurrence process of aftershocks

Review article: Review of fragility analyses for major building types in China with new implications for intensity-PGA relation development

The evaluation of the seismic fragility of buildings is one key task of earthquake safety and loss assessment. Many research reports and papers have been published over the past 4 decades that deal with the vulnerability of buildings to ground motion caused by earthquakes in China. We first scrutinized 69 papers and theses studying building damage for earthquakes that occurred in densely populated areas. They represent observations where macroseismic intensities have been determined according to the official Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale. From these many studies we derived the median fragility functions (dependent on intensity) for four damage limit states of the two most widely distributed building types: masonry and reinforced concrete.We also inspected 18 publications that provide analytical fragility functions (dependent on PGA, peak ground acceleration) for the same damage classes and building categories. Thus, a solid fragility database based on both intensity and PGA is established for seismicity-prone areas in mainland China. A comprehensive view of the problems posed by the evaluation of fragility for different building types is given. Based on the newly collected fragility database, we propose a new approach in deriving intensity–PGA relations by using fragility as the bridge, and reasonable intensity–PGA relations are developed. This novel approach may shed light on new thought in decreasing the scatter in traditional intensity–PGA relation development, i.e., by further classifying observed macroseismic intensities and instrumental ground motions based on differences in building seismic resistance capability

Rapid Source Parameter Estimations of Southern California Earthquakes Using PreSEIS

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems provide real-time estimates of earthquake source and ground motion parameters to users before strong ground shaking occurs at sites of interest (Kanamori et al. 1997; Kanamori 2005). They make use of the fact that the most destructive ground shaking during an earthquake is caused by S- and surface waves, which travel much slower than P waves and also slower than electromagnetic signals carrying warnings to potential users. Real-time information systems can minimize loss of life and property damage and are therefore an important tool in short-term seismic hazard mitigation and disaster management (Wenzel et al. 2001). If an alarm can be issued seconds before the onset of the strong ground motions, automatic emergency actions can be initiated such as slowing down high speed trains or shutting down computers or gas distribution, for instance (Goltz 2002). EEW systems are of two main types, regional and on-site. The former uses a dense network of seismic stations to locate the earthquake, determine its magnitude, and estimate the ground motion at given sites of interest. The latter uses the observations at a single sensor to estimate the ensuing ground motion at the same site (Kanamori 2005). While regional systems work more accurately, they need more time to estimate earthquake source parameters

Losses Associated with Secondary Effects in Earthquakes

The number of earthquakes with high damage and high losses has been limited to around 100 events since 1900. Looking at historical losses from 1900 onward, we see that around 100 key earthquakes (or around 1% of damaging earthquakes) have caused around 93% of fatalities globally. What is indeed interesting about this statistic is that within these events, secondary effects have played a major role, causing around 40% of economic losses and fatalities as compared to shaking effects. Disaggregation of secondary effect economic losses and fatalities demonstrating the relative influence of historical losses from direct earthquake shaking in comparison to tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction, fault rupture, and other type losses is important if we are to understand the key causes post-earthquake. The trends and major event impacts of secondary effects are explored in terms of their historic impact as well as looking to improved ways to disaggregate them through two case studies of the Tohoku 2011 event for earthquake, tsunami, liquefaction, fire, and the nuclear impact; as well as the Chilean 1960 earthquake and tsunami event