The expected sample variance of uncorrelated random variables with a common mean and applications in unbalanced random effects models

There is a little-known but very simple generalization of the standard result that for uncorrelated variables with a common mean and variance, the expected sample variance is the marginal variance. The generalization justifies the use of the usual standard error of the sample mean in possibly heteroscedastic situations and motivates some simple estimators for unbalanced linear random effects models. The latter is illustrated for the simple one-way context. --

Calibration, error analysis, and ongoing measurement process monitoring for mass spectrometry

We consider problems of quantifying and monitoring accuracy and precision of measurement in mass spectrometry, particularly in contexts where there is unavoidable day-to-day/period-to-period changes in instrument sensitivity. First we consider the issue of estimating instrument sensitivity based on data from a typical calibration study. Simple method-of-moments methods, likelihood-based methods, and Bayes methods based on the one-way random effects model are illustrated. Then we consider subsequently assessing the precision of an estimate of a mole fraction of a gas of interest in an unknown. Finally, we turn to the problem of ongoing measurement process monitoring and illustrate appropriate set-up of Shewhart control charts in this application. --

Calibration, Error Analysis, and Ongoing Measurement Process Monitoring for Mass Spectrometry

We consider problems of quantifying and monitoring accuracy and precision of measurement in mass spectrometry, particularly in contexts where there is unavoidable day-to-day/period-to-period changes in instrument sensitivity. First we consider the issue of estimating instrument sensitivity based on data from a typical calibration study. Simple method-of-moments methods, likelihood-based methods, and Bayes methods based on the one-way random effects model are illustrated. Then we consider subsequently assessing the precision of an estimate of a mole fraction of a gas of interest in an unknown. Finally, we turn to the problem of ongoing measurement process monitoring and illustrate appropriate set-up of Shewhart control charts in this application

Adaptive multi-interventional trial platform to improve patient care for fibrotic interstitial lung diseases

BACKGROUND Fibrotic interstitial lung diseases (fILDs) are a heterogeneous group of lung diseases associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite a large increase in the number of clinical trials in the last 10 years, current regulatory-approved management approaches are limited to two therapies that prevent the progression of fibrosis. The drug development pipeline is long and there is an urgent need to accelerate this process. This manuscript introduces the concept and design of an innovative research approach to drug development in fILD: a global Randomised Embedded Multifactorial Adaptive Platform in fILD (REMAP-ILD). METHODS Description of the REMAP-ILD concept and design: the specific terminology, design characteristics (multifactorial, adaptive features, statistical approach), target population, interventions, outcomes, mission and values, and organisational structure. RESULTS The target population will be adult patients with fILD, and the primary outcome will be a disease progression model incorporating forced vital capacity and mortality over 12 months. Responsive adaptive randomisation, prespecified thresholds for success and futility will be used to assess the effectiveness and safety of interventions. REMAP-ILD embraces the core values of diversity, equity, and inclusion for patients and researchers, and prioritises an open-science approach to data sharing and dissemination of results. CONCLUSION By using an innovative and efficient adaptive multi-interventional trial platform design, we aim to accelerate and improve care for patients with fILD. Through worldwide collaboration, novel analytical methodology and pragmatic trial delivery, REMAP-ILD aims to overcome major limitations associated with conventional randomised controlled trial approaches to rapidly improve the care of people living with fILD

Disease progression models of familial frontotemporal lobar degeneration and the temporal ordering of biomarker changes in an international cohort

Background: Clinical trials are underway to treat familial frontotemporal lobar degeneration (f-FTLD). This is a rare disease, and a limited number of mutation carriers have been identified; thus, efficient trial design is critical. Multimodal, latent disease progression models (DPM) can estimate time to symptom onset and define the temporal ordering of biomarker changes. DPMs can also be leveraged to select endpoints and potentially supplement analyses by integrating historical data. Recent draft FDA guidance for gene therapy trials in neurological disease supports these novel approaches to clinical trials. Method: Participants included 1,049 members of families affected by f-FTLD, due to mutations in GRN, MAPT, or C9orf72 genes, who were enrolled in ALLFTD or GENFI. A Bayesian repeated measures model incorporated multimodal data to estimate disease progression, conditional on latent disease age (proximity to symptom onset), in 677 mutations carriers (GRN (n=233), MAPT (n=151) and C9orf72 (n=293)). Family members without pathogenic mutations were used as the reference group. Mean follow-up was 1.1 (SD=1.1) years. Jointly modeled longitudinal variables included neuropsychological scores, CDR®+NACC-FTLD Box Score, MRI volumes of brain regions affected by f-FTLD, and plasma levels of neurofilament light chain (NfL). Result: Disease progression curves were similar across ALLFTD and GENFI cohorts. Plasma NfL elevations occurred earliest, up to 10 years before symptom onset, and NfL was the most powerful endpoint in the asymptomatic stage. MRI abnormalities occurred next, closer to symptom onset. The earliest MRI changes relative to symptom onset were observed in C9orf72+. GRN mutation carriers showed the most rapid acceleration in all biomarkers, and this acceleration occurred in close proximity to symptom onset. Neuropsychological measures and CDR®+NACC-FTLD Box Score were among the most promising endpoints in the symptomatic stage. Trial simulations indicated that using latent disease age as an enrollment criterion would allow some asymptomatic mutation carriers to be enrolled without sacrificing power. Conclusion: Similarity in disease progression across ALLFTD and GENFI participants suggests these models will apply to international trials. Model-derived estimates of disease progression curves indicate that endpoint selection should be specific to disease stage and mutation, and DPMs would facilitate greater participant enrollment

Temporal order of clinical and biomarker changes in familial frontotemporal dementia

Data availability: The datasets analyzed for the current study reflect collaborative efforts of two research consortia: ALLFTD and GENFI. Each consortium provides clinical data access based on established policies for data use: processes for request are available for review at allftd.org/data for ALLFTD data and by emailing [email protected]. Certain data elements from both consortia (for example raw MRI images) may be restricted due to the potential for identifiability in the context of the sensitive nature of the genetic data. The deidentified combined dataset will be available for request through the FTD Prevention Initiative in 2023 (https://www.thefpi.org/).Code availability: Custom R code is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6687486.Copyright © The Author(s). Unlike familial Alzheimer’s disease, we have been unable to accurately predict symptom onset in presymptomatic familial frontotemporal dementia (f-FTD) mutation carriers, which is a major hurdle to designing disease prevention trials. We developed multimodal models for f-FTD disease progression and estimated clinical trial sample sizes in C9orf72, GRN and MAPT mutation carriers. Models included longitudinal clinical and neuropsychological scores, regional brain volumes and plasma neurofilament light chain (NfL) in 796 carriers and 412 noncarrier controls. We found that the temporal ordering of clinical and biomarker progression differed by genotype. In prevention-trial simulations using model-based patient selection, atrophy and NfL were the best endpoints, whereas clinical measures were potential endpoints in early symptomatic trials. f-FTD prevention trials are feasible but will likely require global recruitment efforts. These disease progression models will facilitate the planning of f-FTD clinical trials, including the selection of optimal endpoints and enrollment criteria to maximize power to detect treatment effects.Data collection and dissemination of the data presented in this paper were supported by the ALLFTD Consortium (U19: AG063911, funded by the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke) and the former ARTFL and LEFFTDS Consortia (ARTFL: U54 NS092089, funded by the National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke and National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences; LEFFTDS: U01 AG045390, funded by the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke). The manuscript was reviewed by the ALLFTD Executive Committee for scientific content. The authors acknowledge the invaluable contributions of the study participants and families as well as the assistance of the support staffs at each of the participating sites. This work is also supported by the Association for Frontotemporal Degeneration (including the FTD Biomarkers Initiative), the Bluefield Project to Cure FTD, Larry L. Hillblom Foundation (2018-A-025-FEL (A.M.S.)), the National Institutes of Health (AG038791 (A.L.B.), AG032306 (H.J.R.), AG016976 (W.K.), AG062677 (Ron C. Peterson), AG019724 (B.L.M.), AG058233 (Suzee E. Lee), AG072122 (Walter Kukull), P30 AG062422 (B.L.M.), K12 HD001459 (N.G.), K23AG061253 (A.M.S.), AG062422 (RCP), K24AG045333 (H.J.R.)) and the Rainwater Charitable Foundation. Samples from the National Centralized Repository for Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias (NCRAD), which receives government support under a cooperative agreement grant (U24 AG021886 (T.F.)) awarded by the National Institute on Aging (NIA), were used in this study. This work was also supported by Medical Research Council UK GENFI grant MR/M023664/1 (J.D.R.), the Bluefield Project, the National Institute for Health Research including awards to Cambridge and UCL Biomedical Research Centres and a JPND GENFI-PROX grant (2019–02248). Several authors of this publication are members of the European Reference Network for Rare Neurologic Diseases, project 739510. J.D.R. and L.L.R. are also supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) UCL/H Biomedical Research Centre, the Leonard Wolfson Experimental Neurology Centre Clinical Research Facility and the UK Dementia Research Institute, which receives its funding from UK DRI Ltd, funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Alzheimer’s Society and Alzheimer’s Research UK. J.D.R. is also supported by the Miriam Marks Brain Research UK Senior Fellowship and has received funding from an MRC Clinician Scientist Fellowship (MR/M008525/1) and the NIHR Rare Disease Translational Research Collaboration (BRC149/NS/MH). M.B. is supported by a Fellowship award from the Alzheimer’s Society, UK (AS-JF-19a-004-517). RC and C.G. are supported by a Frontotemporal Dementia Research Studentships in Memory of David Blechner funded through The National Brain Appeal (RCN 290173). J.B.R. is supported by NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (BRC-1215-20014; the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care), the Wellcome Trust (220258), the Cambridge Centre for Parkinson-plus and the Medical Research Council (SUAG/092 G116768); I.L.B. is supported by ANR-PRTS PREV-DemAls, PHRC PREDICT-PGRN, and several authors of this publication are members of the European Reference Network for Rare Neurological Diseases (project 739510). J.L. is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation) under Germany’s Excellence Strategy within the framework of the Munich Cluster for Systems Neurology (EXC 2145 SyNergy – ID 390857198). R.S.-V. was funded at the Hospital Clinic de Barcelona by Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain (grant code PI20/00448 to RSV) and Fundació Marató TV3, Spain (grant code 20143810 to R.S.-V.). M.M. was, in part, funded by the UK Medical Research Council, the Italian Ministry of Health and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research as part of a Centres of Excellence in Neurodegeneration grant, by Canadian Institutes of Health Research operating grants (MOP- 371851 and PJT-175242) and by funding from the Weston Brain Institute. R.L. is supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Chaire de Recherche sur les Aphasies Primaires Progressives Fondation Famille Lemaire. C.G. is supported by the Swedish Frontotemporal Dementia Initiative Schörling Foundation, Swedish Research Council, JPND Prefrontals, 2015–02926,2018–02754, Swedish Alzheimer Foundation, Swedish Brain Foundation, Karolinska Institutet Doctoral Funding, KI Strat-Neuro, Swedish Dementia Foundation, and Stockholm County Council ALF/Region Stockholm. J.L. is supported by Germany’s Excellence Strategy within the framework of the Munich Cluster for Systems Neurology (German Research Foundation, EXC 2145 Synergy 390857198). The Dementia Research Centre is supported by Alzheimer’s Research UK, Alzheimer’s Society, Brain Research UK, and The Wolfson Foundation. This work was supported by the National Institute for Health Research UCL/H Biomedical Research Centre, the Leonard Wolfson Experimental Neurology Centre Clinical Research Facility and the UK Dementia Research Institute, which receives its funding from UK DRI Ltd, funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Alzheimer’s Society, and Alzheimer’s Research UK

The Expected Sample Variance of Uncorrelated Random Variables With a Common Mean and Applications in Unbalanced Random Effects Models (revised Version)

There is a little-known but very simple generalization of the standard result that for uncorrelated variables with a common mean and variance, the expected sample variance is the marginal variance. The generalization justifies the use of the usual standard error of the sample mean in possibly heteroscedastic situations and motivates some simple estimators for unbalanced linear random effects models. The latter is illustrated for the simple one-way context