Understanding pattern scaling errors across a range of emissions pathways

The regional climate impacts of hypothetical future emissions scenarios can be estimated by combining Earth system model simulations with a linear pattern scaling model such as MESMER (Modular Earth System Model Emulator with spatially Resolved output), which uses estimated patterns of the local response per degree of global temperature change. Here we use the mean trend component of MESMER to emulate the regional pattern of the surface temperature response based on historical single-forcer and future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) simulations. Errors in the emulations for selected target scenarios (SSP1–1.9, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5) are decomposed into two components, namely (1) the differences in scaling patterns between scenarios as a consequence of varying combinations of external forcings and (2) the intrinsic time series differences between the local and global responses in the target scenario. The time series error is relatively small for high-emissions scenarios, contributing around 20 % of the total error, but is similar in magnitude to the pattern error for lower-emissions scenarios. This irreducible time series error limits the efficacy of linear pattern scaling for emulating strong mitigation pathways and reduces the dependence on the predictor pattern used. The results help guide the choice of predictor scenarios for simple climate models and where to target for the introduction of other dependent variables beyond global surface temperature into pattern scaling models

Exponential distribution of long heart beat intervals during atrial fibrillation and their relevance for white noise behaviour in power spectrum

The statistical properties of heart beat intervals of 130 long-term surface electrocardiogram recordings during atrial fibrillation (AF) are investigated. We find that the distribution of interbeat intervals exhibits a characteristic exponential tail, which is absent during sinus rhythm, as tested in a corresponding control study with 72 healthy persons. The rate of the exponential decay lies in the range 3-12 Hz and shows diurnal variations. It equals, up to statistical uncertainties, the level of the previously uncovered white noise part in the power spectrum, which is also characteristic for AF. The overall statistical features can be described by decomposing the intervals into two statistically independent times, where the first one is associated with a correlated process with 1/f noise characteristics, while the second one belongs to an uncorrelated process and is responsible for the exponential tail. It is suggested to use the rate of the exponential decay as a further parameter for a better classification of AF and for the medical diagnosis. The relevance of the findings with respect to a general understanding of AF is pointed out

Interplay of structural and electronic phase separation in single crystalline La(2)CuO(4.05) studied by neutron and Raman scattering

We report a neutron and Raman scattering study of a single-crystal of La(2)CuO(4.05) prepared by high temperature electrochemical oxidation. Elastic neutron scattering measurements show the presence of two phases, corresponding to the two edges of the first miscibility gap, all the way up to 300 K. An additional oxygen redistribution, driven by electronic energies, is identified at 250 K in Raman scattering (RS) experiments by the simultaneous onset of two-phonon and two-magnon scattering, which are fingerprints of the insulating phase. Elastic neutron scattering measurements show directly an antiferromagnetic ordering below a N\'eel temperature of T_N =210K. The opening of the superconducting gap manifests itself as a redistribution of electronic Raman scattering below the superconducting transition temperature, T_c = 24K. A pronounced temperature-dependent suppression of the intensity of the (100) magnetic Bragg peak has been detected below T_c. We ascribe this phenomenon to a change of relative volume fraction of superconducting and antiferromagnetic phases with decreasing temperature caused by a form of a superconducting proximity effect.Comment: 9 pages, including 9 eps figures, submitted to PR

Higgs boson mass limits in perturbative unification theories

Motivated in part by recent demonstrations that electroweak unification into a simple group may occur at a low scale, we detail the requirements on the Higgs mass if the unification is to be perturbative. We do this for the Standard Model effective theory, minimal supersymmetry, and next-to-minimal supersymmetry with an additional singlet field. Within the Standard Model framework, we find that perturbative unification with sin2(thetaW)=1/4 occurs at Lambda=3.8 TeV and requires mh<460 GeV, whereas perturbative unification with sin2(thetaW)=3/8 requires mh<200 GeV. In supersymmetry, the presentation of the Higgs mass predictions can be significantly simplified, yet remain meaningful, by using a single supersymmetry breaking parameter Delta_S. We present Higgs mass limits in terms of Delta_S for the minimal supersymmetric model and the next-to-minimal supersymmetric model. We show that in next-to-minimal supersymmetry, the Higgs mass upper limit can be as large as 500 GeV even for moderate supersymmetry masses if the perturbative unification scale is low (e.g., Lambda=10 TeV).Comment: 20 pages, latex, 6 figures, references adde

Aberrant behaviours of reaction diffusion self-organisation models on growing domains in the presence of gene expression time delays

Turing’s pattern formation mechanism exhibits sensitivity to the details of the initial conditions suggesting that, in isolation, it cannot robustly generate pattern within noisy biological environments. Nonetheless, secondary aspects of developmental self-organisation, such as a growing domain, have been shown to ameliorate this aberrant model behaviour. Furthermore, while in-situ hybridisation reveals the presence of gene expression in developmental processes, the influence of such dynamics on Turing’s model has received limited attention. Here, we novelly focus on the Gierer–Meinhardt reaction diffusion system considering delays due the time taken for gene expression, while incorporating a number of different domain growth profiles to further explore the influence and interplay of domain growth and gene expression on Turing’s mechanism. We find extensive pathological model behaviour, exhibiting one or more of the following: temporal oscillations with no spatial structure, a failure of the Turing instability and an extreme sensitivity to the initial conditions, the growth profile and the duration of gene expression. This deviant behaviour is even more severe than observed in previous studies of Schnakenberg kinetics on exponentially growing domains in the presence of gene expression (Gaffney and Monk in Bull. Math. Biol. 68:99–130, 2006). Our results emphasise that gene expression dynamics induce unrealistic behaviour in Turing’s model for multiple choices of kinetics and thus such aberrant modelling predictions are likely to be generic. They also highlight that domain growth can no longer ameliorate the excessive sensitivity of Turing’s mechanism in the presence of gene expression time delays. The above, extensive, pathologies suggest that, in the presence of gene expression, Turing’s mechanism would generally require a novel and extensive secondary mechanism to control reaction diffusion patterning

The position of graptolites within Lower Palaeozoic planktic ecosystems.

An integrated approach has been used to assess the palaeoecology of graptolites both as a discrete group and also as a part of the biota present within Ordovician and Silurian planktic realms. Study of the functional morphology of graptolites and comparisons with recent ecological analogues demonstrates that graptolites most probably filled a variety of niches as primary consumers, with modes of life related to the colony morphotype. Graptolite coloniality was extremely ordered, lacking any close morphological analogues in Recent faunas. To obtain maximum functional efficiency, graptolites would have needed varying degrees of coordinated automobility. A change in lifestyle related to ontogenetic changes was prevalent within many graptolite groups. Differing lifestyle was reflected by differing reproductive strategies, with synrhabdosomes most likely being a method for rapid asexual reproduction. Direct evidence in the form of graptolithophage 'coprolitic' bodies, as well as indirect evidence in the form of probable defensive adaptations, indicate that graptolites comprised a food item for a variety of predators. Graptolites were also hosts to a variety of parasitic organisms and provided an important nutrient source for scavenging organisms

Transverse Beam Spin Asymmetries in Forward-Angle Elastic Electron-Proton Scattering

We have measured the beam-normal single-spin asymmetry in elastic scattering of transversely-polarized 3 GeV electrons from unpolarized protons at Q^2 = 0.15, 0.25 (GeV/c)^2. The results are inconsistent with calculations solely using the elastic nucleon intermediate state, and generally agree with calculations with significant inelastic hadronic intermediate state contributions. A_n provides a direct probe of the imaginary component of the 2-gamma exchange amplitude, the complete description of which is important in the interpretation of data from precision electron-scattering experiments.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Physical Review Letters; shortened to meet PRL length limit, clarified some text after referee's comment

Strange Quark Contributions to Parity-Violating Asymmetries in the Forward G0 Electron-Proton Scattering Experiment

We have measured parity-violating asymmetries in elastic electron-proton scattering over the range of momentum transfers 0.12 < Q^2 < 1.0 GeV^2. These asymmetries, arising from interference of the electromagnetic and neutral weak interactions, are sensitive to strange quark contributions to the currents of the proton. The measurements were made at JLab using a toroidal spectrometer to detect the recoiling protons from a liquid hydrogen target. The results indicate non-zero, Q^2 dependent, strange quark contributions and provide new information beyond that obtained in previous experiments.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure