A test of adverse selection in the market for experienced workers

We show that in labor market models with adverse selection, otherwise observationally equivalent workers will experience less wage growth following a period in which they change jobs than following a period in which they do not. We find little or no evidence to support this prediction. In most specifications the coefficient has the opposite sign, sometimes statistically significantly so. When consistent with the prediction, the estimated effects are small and statistically insignificant. We consistently reject large effects in the predicted direction. We argue informally that our results are also problematic for a broader class of models of competitive labor markets.Othe

Geometric Analysis of Bifurcation and Symmetry Breaking in a Gross-Pitaevskii equation

Gross-Pitaevskii and nonlinear Hartree equations are equations of nonlinear Schroedinger type, which play an important role in the theory of Bose-Einstein condensation. Recent results of Aschenbacher et. al. [AFGST] demonstrate, for a class of 3- dimensional models, that for large boson number (squared L^2 norm), N, the ground state does not have the symmetry properties as the ground state at small N. We present a detailed global study of the symmetry breaking bifurcation for a 1-dimensional model Gross-Pitaevskii equation, in which the external potential (boson trap) is an attractive double-well, consisting of two attractive Dirac delta functions concentrated at distinct points. Using dynamical systems methods, we present a geometric analysis of the symmetry breaking bifurcation of an asymmetric ground state and the exchange of dynamical stability from the symmetric branch to the asymmetric branch at the bifurcation point.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figure

Bayesian value-of-infomation analysis: an application to a policy model of Alzheimer's disease

A framework is presented that distinguishes the conceptually separate decisions of which treatment strategy is optimal from the question of whether more information is required to inform this choice in the future. The authors argue that the choice of treatment strategy should be based on expected utility, and the only valid reason to characterize the uncertainty surrounding outcomes of interest is to establish the value of acquiring additional information. A Bayesian decision theoretic approach is demonstrated through a probabilistic analysis of a published policy model of Alzheimer’s disease. The expected value of perfect information is estimated for the decision to adopt a new pharmaceutical for the population of patients with Alzheimer’s disease in the United States. This provides an upper bound on the value of additional research. The value of information is also estimated for each of the model inputs. This analysis can focus future research by identifying those parameters where more precise estimates would be most valuable and indicating whether an experimental design would be required. We also discuss how this type of analysis can also be used to design experimental research efficiently (identifying optimal sample size and optimal sample allocation) based on the marginal cost and marginal benefit of sample information. Value-of-information analysis can provide a measure of the expected payoff from proposed research, which can be used to set priorities in research and development. It can also inform an efficient regulatory framework for new healthcare technologies: an analysis of the value of information would define when a claim for a new technology should be deemed substantiated and when evidence should be considered competent and reliable when it is not cost-effective to gather any more information

Demonstration of ultra-high-Q small mode volume toroid microcavities on a chip

Optical microcavities confine light spatially and temporally and find application in a wide range of fundamental and applied studies. In many areas, the microcavity figure of merit is not only determined by photon lifetime (or the equivalent quality-factor, Q), but also by simultaneous achievement of small mode volume V . Here we demonstrate ultra-high Q-factor small mode volume toroid microcavities on-a-chip, which exhibit a Q/V factor of more than $10^{6}(\lambda/n)^{-3}$. These values are the highest reported to date for any chip-based microcavity. A corresponding Purcell factor in excess of 200 000 and a cavity finesse of $2.8\times10^{6}$ is achieved, demonstrating that toroid microcavities are promising candidates for studies of the Purcell effect, cavity QED or biochemical sensingComment: 4 pages, 3 figures, Submitted to Applied Physics Letter

Template-based Gravitational-Wave Echoes Search Using Bayesian Model Selection

The ringdown of the gravitational-wave signal from a merger of two black holes has been suggested as a probe of the structure of the remnant compact object, which may be more exotic than a black hole. It has been pointed out that there will be a train of echoes in the late-time ringdown stage for different types of exotic compact objects. In this paper, we present a template-based search methodology using Bayesian statistics to search for echoes of gravitational waves. Evidence for the presence or absence of echoes in gravitational-wave events can be established by performing Bayesian model selection. The Occam factor in Bayesian model selection will automatically penalize the more complicated model that echoes are present in gravitational-wave strain data because of its higher degree of freedom to fit the data. We find that the search methodology was able to identify gravitational-wave echoes with Abedi et al.'s echoes waveform model about 82.3% of the time in simulated Gaussian noise in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo network and about 61.1% of the time in real noise in the first observing run of Advanced LIGO with $\geq 5\sigma$ significance. Analyses using this method are performed on the data of Advanced LIGO's first observing run, and we find no statistical significant evidence for the detection of gravitational-wave echoes. In particular, we find $<1\sigma$ combined evidence of the three events in Advanced LIGO's first observing run. The analysis technique developed in this paper is independent of the waveform model used, and can be used with different parametrized echoes waveform models to provide more realistic evidence of the existence of echoes from exotic compact objects.Comment: 16 pages, 6 figure

On Deusons or Deuteronlike Meson-Meson Bound States

The systematics of deuteronlike two-meson bound states, {\it deusons}, is discussed. Previous arguments that many of the present non-$q\bar q$ states are such states are elaborated including, in particular, the tensor potential. For pseudoscalar states the important observation is made that the centrifugal barrier from the P-wave can be overcome by the $1/r^2$ and $1/r^3$ terms of the tensor potential. In the heavy meson sector one-pion exchange alone is strong enough to form at least deuteron-like $B\bar B^*$ and $B^*\bar B^*$ composites bound by approximately 50 MeV, while $D\bar D^*$ and $D^*\bar D^*$ states are expected near the threshold.Comment: Invited talk at the Hadron93 International Conf. on Hadron Spectroscopy, Como, Italy 22.-25.6. 1993. 5 pages in LATEX HU-SEFT R 1993-13