A comparison of Child-Pugh, APACHE II and APACHE III scoring systems in predicting hospital mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic accuracy of Child-Pugh and APACHE II and III scoring systems in predicting short-term, hospital mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis. METHODS: 200 admissions of 147 cirrhotic patients (44% viral-associated liver cirrhosis, 33% alcoholic, 18.5% cryptogenic, 4.5% both viral and alcoholic) were studied prospectively. Clinical and laboratory data conforming to the Child-Pugh, APACHE II and III scores were recorded on day 1 for all patients. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under a ROC curve (AUC). Calibration was estimated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. RESULTS: Overall mortality was 11.5%. The mean Child-Pugh, APACHE II and III scores for survivors were found to be significantly lower than those of nonsurvivors. Discrimination was excellent for Child-Pugh (ROC AUC: 0.859) and APACHE III (ROC AUC: 0.816) scores, and acceptable for APACHE II score (ROC AUC: 0.759). Although the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic revealed adequate goodness-of-fit for Child-Pugh score (P = 0.192), this was not the case for APACHE II and III scores (P = 0.004 and 0.003 respectively) CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that, of the three models, Child-Pugh score had the least statistically significant discrepancy between predicted and observed mortality across the strata of increasing predicting mortality. This supports the hypothesis that APACHE scores do not work accurately outside ICU settings

T-cell recognition of chemicals, protein allergens and drugs: towards the development of in vitro assays

Chemicals can elicit T-cell-mediated diseases such as allergic contact dermatitis and adverse drug reactions. Therefore, testing of chemicals, drugs and protein allergens for hazard identification and risk assessment is essential in regulatory toxicology. The seventh amendment of the EU Cosmetics Directive now prohibits the testing of cosmetic ingredients in mice, guinea pigs and other animal species to assess their sensitizing potential. In addition, the EU Chemicals Directive REACh requires the retesting of more than 30,000 chemicals for different toxicological endpoints, including sensitization, requiring vast numbers of animals. Therefore, alternative methods are urgently needed to eventually replace animal testing. Here, we summarize the outcome of an expert meeting in Rome on 7 November 2009 on the development of T-cell-based in vitro assays as tools in immunotoxicology to identify hazardous chemicals and drugs. In addition, we provide an overview of the development of the field over the last two decades

Material Hardship and the Physical Health of School-Aged Children in Low-Income Households

Objectives. We examined the relationship between material hardship reported by low-income caregivers and caregivers’ assessments of their children's overall health

Bimodal Distribution of Risk for Childhood Obesity in Urban Baja California, Mexico

In Mexico, higher socioeconomic status (SES) has been found to be associated with increased risk for obesity in children. Within developed urban areas, however, there may be increased risk among lower SES children. Students in grades 4–6 from five public schools in Tijuana and Tecate, Mexico, were interviewed and weight, height and waist circumference (WC) measurements were taken. Interviews consisted of questions on food frequency, food insecurity, acculturation, physical activity and lifestyle practices. Multivariate logistic models were used to assess risk factors for obesity (having a body mass index [BMI] ≥95th percentile) and abdominal obesity (a WC >90th percentile) using Stata 11.0. Five hundred and ninety students were enrolled; 43.7% were overweight or obese, and 24.3% were obese and 20.2% had abdominal obesity. Independent risk factors for obesity included watching TV in English (odds ratio [OR] 1.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06–2.41) and perceived child food insecurity (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.05–2.36). Decreased risk for obesity was associated with female sex (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.43–0.96), as was regular multivitamin use (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.42–0.94). Risk obesity was also decreased with increased taco consumption (≥1×/week; OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.43–0.96). Independent risk factors for abdominal obesity included playing video games ≥1×/week (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.11–2.96) and older age group (10–11 years, OR 2.47, 95% CI 1.29–4.73 and ≥12 years, OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.09–4.49). Increased consumption of tacos was also associated with decreased risk for abdominal obesity (≥1×/week; OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.40–1.00). We found a bimodal distribution for risk of obesity and abdominal obesity in school aged children on the Mexican border with the United States. Increased risk for obesity and abdominal obesity were associated with factors indicative of lower and higher SES including watching TV in English, increased video game playing and perceived food insecurity. Increased consumption of tacos (≥1×/week) was associated with decreased risk, possibly suggesting an association with children from middle income families. Regular multivitamin use was protective and future studies may focus on micronutrient supplementation as a means to prevent obesity in children or further investigate factors associated with vitamin use. Additionally, future studies need to examine the processes of acculturation on both sides of the US–Mexican border that contribute to increased risk for obesity in children in relation to SES

Assessing the internal validity of a household survey-based food security measure adapted for use in Iran

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The prevalence of food insecurity is an indicator of material well-being in an area of basic need. The U.S. Food Security Module has been adapted for use in a wide variety of cultural and linguistic settings around the world. We assessed the internal validity of the adapted U.S. Household Food Security Survey Module to measure adult and child food insecurity in Isfahan, Iran, using statistical methods based on the Rasch measurement model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The U.S. Household Food Security Survey Module was translated into Farsi and after adaptation, administered to a representative sample. Data were provided by 2,004 randomly selected households from all sectors of the population of Isfahan, Iran, during 2005.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>53.1 percent reported that their food had run out at some time during the previous 12 months and they did not have money to buy more, while 26.7 percent reported that an adult had cut the size of a meal or skipped a meal because there was not enough money for food, and 7.2 percent reported that an adult did not eat for a whole day because there was not enough money for food. The severity of the items in the adult scale, estimated under Rasch-model assumptions, covered a range of 6.65 logistic units, and those in the child scale 11.68 logistic units. Most Item-infit statistics were near unity, and none exceeded 1.20.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The range of severity of items provides measurement coverage across a wide range of severity of food insecurity for both adults and children. Both scales demonstrated acceptable levels of internal validity, although several items should be improved. The similarity of the response patterns in the Isfahan and the U.S. suggests that food insecurity is experienced, managed, and described similarly in the two countries.</p