Synergy between Pollution and Carbon Emissions Control: Comparing China and the U.S.

We estimate the potential synergy between pollution and climate control in the U.S. and China, summarizing the results as emissions cross-elasticities of control. We set a range of NOx and SO2 targets, and record the ancillary reduction in CO2 to calculate the percentage change in CO2 divided by the percentage change in NOx (SO2) denoted as ECO2,NOx (ECO2,SO2). Then we conduct the opposite experiment, setting targets for CO2 and recording the ancillary reduction in NOx and SO2 to compute ENOx,CO2 and ESO2,CO2. For ECO2,NOx and ECO2,SO2 we find low values (0.06‒0.23) in both countries with small (10%) reduction targets that rise to 0.40‒0.67 in the U.S. and 0.83‒1.03 in China when targets are more stringent (75% reduction). This pattern reflects the availability of pollution control to target individual pollutants for smaller reductions but the need for wholesale change toward non-fossil technologies when large reductions are required. We trace the especially high cross elasticities in China to its higher dependence on coal. These results are promising in that China may have more incentive to greatly reduce SO2 and NOx with readily apparent pollution benefits in China, that at the same time would significantly reduce CO2 emissions. The majority of existing studies have focused on the effect of CO2 abatement on other pollutants, typically finding strong cross effects. We find similar strong effects but with less dependence on the stringency of control, and stronger effects in the U.S. than in China.The authors are grateful to Howard Herzog and Henry Chen for their valuable inputs for this study. We acknowledge the support of the French Development Agency (AFD), ENI, ICF International, and Shell, founding sponsors of the China Climate and Energy Project, for this application of the EPPA model, and BP’s support of Waugh's thesis, which provided the foundation work for representing air pollution control in the EPPA model. We also acknowledge general industrial and government sponsors of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change (http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/all), including the DOE Integrated Assessment Grant (DE-FG02-94ER61937), through which we have developed and maintain the EPPA modeling framework

Climate Co-benefits of Tighter SO2 and NOx Regulations in China

Air pollution has been recognized as a significant problem in China. In its Twelfth Five Year Plan (FYP), China proposes to reduce SO2 and NOx emissions significantly, and here we investigate the cost of achieving those reductions and the implications of doing so for CO2 emissions. We extend the analysis through 2050, and either hold emissions policy targets at the level specified in the Twelfth FYP, or continue to reduce them gradually. We apply a computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy that includes a representation of pollution abatement derived from detailed assessment of abatement technology and costs. We find that China’s SO2 and NOx emissions control targets would have substantial effects on CO2 emissions leading to emissions savings far beyond those we estimate would be needed to meet its CO2 intensity targets. However, the cost of achieving and maintaining the pollution targets can be quite high given the growing economy. In fact, we find that the Twelfth FYP pollution targets can be met while still expanding the use of coal, but if they are, then there is a lock-in effect that makes it more costly to maintain or further reduce emissions. That is, if firms were to look ahead to tighter targets, they would make different technology choices in the near term, largely turning away from increased use of coal immediately.We acknowledge the support of ENI, ICF, and Shell, initial Founding sponsors of the China Climate and Energy Project, for this application of the EPPA model. We also acknowledge BP's support of Waugh's thesis, which provided the foundation work for representing air pollution control in the EPPA model. We also acknowledge general industrial and government sponsors of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change (http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/all) through which we have developed and maintain the EPPA modeling framework

A Strategy for a Global Observing System for Verification of National Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).With the risks of climate change becoming increasingly evident, there is growing discussion regarding international treaties and national regulations to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Enforcement of such agreements is likely to depend formally upon national and sectoral emission reporting procedures (sometimes referred to as “bottom-up” methods). However, for these procedures to be credible and effective, it is essential that these reports or claims be independently verified. In particular, any disagreements between these “bottom-up” emission estimates, and independent emission estimates inferred from global GHG measurements (so-called “top-down” methods) need to be resolved. Because emissions control legislation is national or regional in nature, not global, it is also essential that “top-down” emission estimates be determined at these same geographic scales. This report lays out a strategy for quantifying and reducing uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions, based on a comprehensive synthesis of global observations of various types with models of the global cycles of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that include both the natural and human influences on these cycles. The overall goal is to establish a global observing and estimation system that incorporates all relevant available knowledge (physical, biogeochemical, technological and economic) in order to verify greenhouse gas emissions, as a key component of any global GHG treaty.Lockheed Martin Corporation and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

A Linear Current Regulator

Conventional vacuum-tube current regulators are effective in maintaining a current at a predetermined value, accounting for their widespread use in the familiar electronically regulated power supplies. In some applications, however, it is desirable to have the controlled current respond literally (or in some other specified fashion) to changes in some mechanical controlling device; and the ordinary circuits do not satisfy this condition, since their linearity depends upon that of an associated dc amplifier. To be sure, any desired approximation to linearity can be obtained by increasing the gain of this amplifier, but for many purposes a sufficiently linear regulator of adequate stability becomes unnecessarily complex. The simple circuit described here is novel in that its linearity depends upon that of no element except a single helical potentiometer, which is inexpensively available to linearity tolerances of 0.1 percent or better

Screening for type 2 diabetes : literature review and economic modelling

Objectives: To reconsider the aims of screening for undiagnosed diabetes, and whether screening should be for other abnormalities of glucose metabolism such as impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), or the ‘metabolic syndrome’. Also to update the previous review for the National Screening Committee (NSC) on screening for diabetes, including reviewing choice of screening test; to consider what measures would be taken if IGT and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) were identified by screening, and in particular to examine evidence on treatment to prevent progression to diabetes in these groups; to examine the cost-effectiveness of screening; and to consider groups at higher risk at which screening might be targeted. Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to the end of June 2005. Review methods: Literature searches and review concentrated on evidence published since the last review of screening, both reviews and primary studies. The review of economic studies included only those models that covered screening. The new modelling extended an existing diabetes treatment model by developing a screening module. The NSC has a set of criteria, which it applies to new screening proposals. These criteria cover the condition, the screening test or tests, treatment and the screening programme. Screening for diabetes was considered using these criteria. Results: Detection of lesser degrees of glucose intolerance such as IGT is worthwhile, partly because the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) can be reduced by treatment aimed at reducing cholesterol level and blood pressure, and partly because some diabetes can be prevented. Several trials have shown that both lifestyle measures and pharmacological treatment can reduce the proportion of people with IGT who would otherwise develop diabetes. Screening could be two-stage, starting with the selection of people at higher risk. The second-stage choice of test for blood glucose remains a problem, as in the last review for NSC. The best test is the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), but it is the most expensive, is inconvenient and has weak reproducibility. Fasting plasma glucose would miss people with IGT. Glycatedhaemoglobin does not require fasting, and may be the best compromise. It may be that more people would be tested and diagnosed if the more convenient test was used, rather than the OGTT. Five economic studies assessed the costs and short-term outcomes of using different screening tests. None examined the long-term impact of different proportions of false negatives. All considered the costs that would be incurred and the numbers identified by different tests, or different cut-offs. Results differed depending on different assumptions. They did not give a clear guide as to which test would be the best in any UK screening programme, but all recognised that the choice of cut-off would be a compromise between sensitivity and specificity; there is no perfect test. The modelling exercise concluded that screening for diabetes appears to be cost-effective for the 40–70-year age band, more so for the older age bands, but even in the 40–49-year age group, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for screening versus no screening is only £10,216 per quality-adjusted life-year. Screening is more cost-effective for people in the hypertensive and obese subgroups and the costs of screening are offset in many groups by lower future treatment costs. The cost-effectiveness of screening is determined as much by, if not more than, assumptions about the degree of control of blood glucose and future treatment protocols than by assumptions relating to the screening programme. The very low cost now of statins is also an important factor. Although the prevalence of diabetes increases with age, the relative risk of CVD falls, reducing the benefits of screening. Screening for diabetes meets most of the NSC criteria, but probably fails on three: criterion 12, on optimisation of existing management of the condition; criterion 13, which requires that there should be evidence from high-quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs) showing that a screening programme would reduce mortality or morbidity; and criterion 18, that there should be adequate staffing and facilities for all aspects of the programme. It is uncertain whether criterion 19, that all other options, including prevention, should have been considered, is met. The issue here is whether all methods of improving lifestyles in order to reduce obesity and increase exercise have been sufficiently tried. The rise in overweight and obesity suggests that health promotion interventions have not so far been effective. Conclusions: The case for screening for undiagnosed diabetes is probably somewhat stronger than it was at the last review, because of the greater options for reduction of CVD, principally through the use of statins, and because of the rising prevalence of obesity and hence type 2 diabetes. However, there is also a good case for screening for IGT, with the aim of preventing some future diabetes and reducing CVD. Further research is needed into the duration of undiagnosed diabetes, and whether the rise in blood glucose levels is linear throughout or whether there may be a slower initial phase followed by an acceleration around the time of clinical diagnosis. This has implications for the interval after which screening would be repeated. Further research is also needed into the natural history of IGT, and in particular what determines progression to diabetes. An RCT of the type required by NSC criterion 13 is under way but will not report for about 7 years

Corrections to the universal behavior of the Coulomb-blockade peak splitting for quantum dots separated by a finite barrier

Building upon earlier work on the relation between the dimensionless interdot channel conductance g and the fractional Coulomb-blockade peak splitting f for two electrostatically equivalent dots, we calculate the leading correction that results from an interdot tunneling barrier that is not a delta-function but, rather, has a finite height V and a nonzero width xi and can be approximated as parabolic near its peak. We develop a new treatment of the problem for g much less than 1 that starts from the single-particle eigenstates for the full coupled-dot system. The finiteness of the barrier leads to a small upward shift of the f-versus-g curve at small values of g. The shift is a consequence of the fact that the tunneling matrix elements vary exponentially with the energies of the states connected. Therefore, when g is small, it can pay to tunnel to intermediate states with single-particle energies above the barrier height V. The correction to the zero-width behavior does not affect agreement with recent experimental results but may be important in future experiments.Comment: Title changed from ``Non-universal...'' to ``Corrections to the universal...'' No other changes. 10 pages, 1 RevTeX file with 2 postscript figures included using eps

Coulomb blockade of strongly coupled quantum dots studied via bosonization of a channel with a finite barrier

A pair of quantum dots, coupled through a point contact, can exhibit Coulomb blockade effects that reflect an oscillatory term in the dots' total energy whose value depends on whether the total number of electrons on the dots is even or odd. The effective energy associated with this even-odd alternation is reduced, relative to the bare Coulomb blockade energy for uncoupled dots, by a factor (1-f) that decreases as the interdot coupling is increased. When the transmission coefficient for interdot electronic motion is independent of energy and the same for all channels within the point contact (which are assumed uncoupled), the factor (1-f) takes on a universal value determined solely by the number of channels and the dimensionless conductance g of each individual channel. This paper studies corrections to the universal value of (1-f) that result when the transmission coefficent varies over energy scales of the size of the bare Coulomb blockade energy. We consider a model in which the point contact is described by a single orbital channel containing a parabolic barrier potential, and we calculate the leading correction to (1-f) for one-channel (spin-split) and two-channel (spin-degenerate) point contacts in the limit where the single orbital channel is almost completely open. By generalizing a previously used bosonization technique, we find that, for a given value of the dimensionless conductance g, the value of (1-f) is increased relative to its value for a zero-thickness barrier, but the absolute value of the increase is small in the region where our calculations apply.Comment: 13 pages, 3 Postscript figure

Relation between Barrier Conductance and Coulomb Blockade Peak Splitting for Tunnel-Coupled Quantum Dots

We study the relation between the barrier conductance and the Coulomb blockade peak splitting for two electrostatically equivalent dots connected by tunneling channels with bandwidths much larger than the dot charging energies. We note that this problem is equivalent to a well-known single-dot problem and present solutions for the relation between peak splitting and barrier conductance in both the weak and strong coupling limits. Results are in good qualitative agreement with the experimental findings of F. R. Waugh et al.Comment: 19 pages (REVTeX 3.0), 3 Postscript figure

Higher-Order Results for the Relation between Channel Conductance and the Coulomb Blockade for Two Tunnel-Coupled Quantum Dots

We extend earlier results on the relation between the dimensionless tunneling channel conductance $g$ and the fractional Coulomb blockade peak splitting $f$ for two electrostatically equivalent dots connected by an arbitrary number $N_{\text{ch}}$ of tunneling channels with bandwidths $W$ much larger than the two-dot differential charging energy $U_{2}$. By calculating $f$ through second order in $g$ in the limit of weak coupling ($g \rightarrow 0$), we illuminate the difference in behavior of the large-$N_{\text{ch}}$ and small-$N_{\text{ch}}$ regimes and make more plausible extrapolation to the strong-coupling ($g \rightarrow 1$) limit. For the special case of $N_{\text{ch}}=2$ and strong coupling, we eliminate an apparent ultraviolet divergence and obtain the next leading term of an expansion in $(1-g)$. We show that the results we calculate are independent of such band structure details as the fraction of occupied fermionic single-particle states in the weak-coupling theory and the nature of the cut-off in the bosonized strong-coupling theory. The results agree with calculations for metallic junctions in the $N_{\text{ch}} \rightarrow \infty$ limit and improve the previous good agreement with recent two-channel experiments.Comment: 27 pages, 1 RevTeX file with 4 embedded Postscript figures. Uses eps