Prevalence of Trachomatous Trichiasis in Ten Evaluation Units of Embu and Kitui Counties, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Late-stage blinding sequalae of trachoma such as trachomatous trichiasis (TT) typically take decades to develop and often do so in the absence of ongoing ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection. This suggests that most TT risk accumulates in early life; as a result, population-level TT incidence and prevalence can remain high years after C. trachomatis transmission among children has decreased. In Embu and Kitui counties, Kenya, the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation - follicular is low in children. In this survey, we set out to determine the prevalence of TT in ten evaluation units (EUs) in these counties. METHODS: We undertook ten cross-sectional prevalence surveys for TT. In each EU, people aged ≥15 years were selected by a two-stage cluster sampling method and examined for TT. Those with TT were asked questions on whether they had been offered management for it. Prevalence was adjusted to the underlying age and gender structure of the population. RESULTS: A total of 18,987 people aged ≥15 years were examined. Per EU, the median number of examined participants was 1,656 (range: 1,451 - 3,016) and median response rate was 86% (range: 81 - 95%). The prevalence of TT unknown to the health system in people aged ≥15 years was above the threshold for elimination (≥0.2%) in all ten EUs studied (range: 0.2-0.7%). TT was significantly more common in older than younger individuals and in women than in men. DISCUSSION: Provision of surgical services should be strengthened in Embu and Kitui counties of Kenya to achieve the World Health Organization threshold for eliminating TT as a public health problem

District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts