1,437 research outputs found

    Doubling of World Population Unlikely

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    Most national and international agencies producing population projections explicitly avoid addressing the issue of uncertainty. Typically, they provide either a single projection or a set of low, medium, and high variants, and only very rarely do they give these projections a probabilistic interpretation. Probabilistic population projections have been developed for specific industrialized countries, mostly the United States, and are based largely on time-series analysis. On a global level, time-series analysis is not applicable because there is a lack of appropriate data, and for conceptual reasons such as the structural discontinuity caused by the demographic transition. Here we report on a new probabilistic approach that makes use of expert opinion on trends in fertility, and on the 90% uncertainty range of those trends in different parts of the world. We have used simulation techniques to derive probability distributions of population sizes and age structures for 13 regions of the world up to the year 2100. Among other things, there is a probability of two-thirds that the world's population will not double in the twenty-first century

    Integrating modes of policy analysis and strategic management practice : requisite elements and dilemmas

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    There is a need to bring methods to bear on public problems that are inclusive, analytic, and quick. This paper describes the efforts of three pairs of academics working from three different though complementary theoretical foundations and intervention backgrounds (i.e., ways of working) who set out together to meet this challenge. Each of the three pairs had conducted dozens of interventions that had been regarded as successful or very successful by the client groups in dealing with complex policy and strategic problems. One approach focused on leadership issues and stakeholders, another on negotiating competitive strategic intent with attention to stakeholder responses, and the third on analysis of feedback ramifications in developing policies. This paper describes the 10 year longitudinal research project designed to address the above challenge. The important outcomes are reported: the requisite elements of a general integrated approach and the enduring puzzles and tensions that arose from seeking to design a wide-ranging multi-method approach

    Cosmic ray diffusion near the Bohm limit in the Cassiopeia A supernova remnant

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    Supernova remnants (SNRs) are believed to be the primary location of the acceleration of Galactic cosmic rays, via diffusive shock (Fermi) acceleration. Despite considerable theoretical work the precise details are still unknown, in part because of the difficulty in directly observing nucleons that are accelerated to TeV energies in, and affect the structure of, the SNR shocks. However, for the last ten years, X-ray observatories ASCA, and more recently Chandra, XMM-Newton, and Suzaku have made it possible to image the synchrotron emission at keV energies produced by cosmic-ray electrons accelerated in the SNR shocks. In this article, we describe a spatially-resolved spectroscopic analysis of Chandra observations of the Galactic SNR Cassiopeia A to map the cutoff frequencies of electrons accelerated in the forward shock. We set upper limits on the electron diffusion coefficient and find locations where particles appear to be accelerated nearly as fast as theoretically possible (the Bohm limit).Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Nature Physics (DOI below), final version available week of August 28, 2006 at http://www.nature.com/nphy

    Design of a combinatorial DNA microarray for protein-DNA interaction studies

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    BACKGROUND: Discovery of precise specificity of transcription factors is an important step on the way to understanding the complex mechanisms of gene regulation in eukaryotes. Recently, double-stranded protein-binding microarrays were developed as a potentially scalable approach to tackle transcription factor binding site identification. RESULTS: Here we present an algorithmic approach to experimental design of a microarray that allows for testing full specificity of a transcription factor binding to all possible DNA binding sites of a given length, with optimally efficient use of the array. This design is universal, works for any factor that binds a sequence motif and is not species-specific. Furthermore, simulation results show that data produced with the designed arrays is easier to analyze and would result in more precise identification of binding sites. CONCLUSION: In this study, we present a design of a double stranded DNA microarray for protein-DNA interaction studies and show that our algorithm allows optimally efficient use of the arrays for this purpose. We believe such a design will prove useful for transcription factor binding site identification and other biological problems

    Identification of moaA3 gene in patient isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Kerala, which is absent in M. tuberculosis H37Rv and H37Ra

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    BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is endemic to developing countries like India. Though the whole genome sequences of the type strain M. tuberculosis H37Rv and the clinical strain M. tuberculosis CDC1551 are available, the clinical isolates from India have not been studied extensively at the genome level. This study was carried out in order to have a better understanding of isolates from Kerala, a state in southern India. RESULTS: A PCR based strategy was followed making use of the deletion region primers to understand the genome level differences between the type strain H37Rv and the clinical isolates of M. tuberculosis from Kerala. PCR analysis of patient isolates using RD1 region primers revealed the amplification of a 386 bp region, in addition to the expected 652 bp amplicon. Southern hybridization of genomic DNA with the 386 bp amplicon confirmed the presence of this new region in a majority of the patient isolates from Kerala. Sequence comparison of this amplicon showed close homology with the moaA3 gene of M. bovis. In M. bovis this gene is present in the RvD5 region, an IS6110 mediated deletion that is absent in M. tuberculosis H37Rv. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the presence of moaA3 gene, that is absent in M. tuberculosis H37Rv and H37Ra, in a large number of local isolates. Whether the moaA3 gene provides any specific advantage to the field isolates of the pathogen is unclear. Field strains from Kerala have fewer IS6110 sequences and therefore are likely to have fewer IS6110 dependent rearrangements. But as deletions and insertions account for much of the genomic diversity of M. tuberculosis, the mechanisms of formation of sequence polymorphisms in the local isolates should be further examined. These results suggest that studies should focus on strains from endemic areas to understand the complexities of this pathogen

    Performance deficits of NK1 receptor knockout mice in the 5 choice serial reaction time task: effects of d Amphetamine, stress and time of day.

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    Background The neurochemical status and hyperactivity of mice lacking functional substance P-preferring NK1 receptors (NK1R-/-) resemble abnormalities in Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). Here we tested whether NK1R-/- mice express other core features of ADHD (impulsivity and inattentiveness) and, if so, whether they are diminished by d-amphetamine, as in ADHD. Prompted by evidence that circadian rhythms are disrupted in ADHD, we also compared the performance of mice that were trained and tested in the morning or afternoon. Methods and Results The 5-Choice Serial Reaction-Time Task (5-CSRTT) was used to evaluate the cognitive performance of NK1R-/- mice and their wildtypes. After training, animals were tested using a long (LITI) and a variable (VITI) inter-trial interval: these tests were carried out with, and without, d-amphetamine pretreatment (0.3 or 1 mg/kg i.p.). NK1R-/- mice expressed greater omissions (inattentiveness), perseveration and premature responses (impulsivity) in the 5-CSRTT. In NK1R-/- mice, perseveration in the LITI was increased by injection-stress but reduced by d-amphetamine. Omissions by NK1R-/- mice in the VITI were unaffected by d-amphetamine, but premature responses were exacerbated by this psychostimulant. Omissions in the VITI were higher, overall, in the morning than the afternoon but, in the LITI, premature responses of NK1R-/- mice were higher in the afternoon than the morning. Conclusion In addition to locomotor hyperactivity, NK1R-/- mice express inattentiveness, perseveration and impulsivity in the 5-CSRTT, thereby matching core criteria for a model of ADHD. Because d-amphetamine reduced perseveration in NK1R-/- mice, this action does not require functional NK1R. However, the lack of any improvement of omissions and premature responses in NK1R-/- mice given d-amphetamine suggests that beneficial effects of this psychostimulant in other rodent models, and ADHD patients, need functional NK1R. Finally, our results reveal experimental variables (stimulus parameters, stress and time of day) that could influence translational studies

    Elaborating the Science of Food Choice for Rapidly Changing Food Systems in Low-and Middle-Income Countries

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    The world’s food systems and environments have been changing dramatically, concomitant with changes in overand undernutrition. We elaborate the science of food choice to better understand, analyze, and respond to relationships between changing food environments and food choice. The science of food choice is concerned with generating knowledge about causal drivers of food choice decision making processes and behavior within immediate food and social environments. Three fundamental and interconnected questions undergird this science; 1) what do people eat from the options available and accessible?; 2) how do people interact with food environments?; and 3) why do people decide to acquire, prepare, distribute, and consume foods as they do? Not all food choice behavior is rational, reflexive, or discrete, but is embedded in wider activities of daily lives. The science of food choice involves understanding influences from multiple systems that drive food choice for deriving sound, actionable policy, and programmatic recommendations

    Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

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    Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics
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