Bayesian models for syndrome- and gene-specific probabilities of novel variant pathogenicity

BACKGROUND: With the advent of affordable and comprehensive sequencing technologies, access to molecular genetics for clinical diagnostics and research applications is increasing. However, variant interpretation remains challenging, and tools that close the gap between data generation and data interpretation are urgently required. Here we present a transferable approach to help address the limitations in variant annotation. METHODS: We develop a network of Bayesian logistic regression models that integrate multiple lines of evidence to evaluate the probability that a rare variant is the cause of an individual's disease. We present models for genes causing inherited cardiac conditions, though the framework is transferable to other genes and syndromes. RESULTS: Our models report a probability of pathogenicity, rather than a categorisation into pathogenic or benign, which captures the inherent uncertainty of the prediction. We find that gene- and syndrome-specific models outperform genome-wide approaches, and that the integration of multiple lines of evidence performs better than individual predictors. The models are adaptable to incorporate new lines of evidence, and results can be combined with familial segregation data in a transparent and quantitative manner to further enhance predictions. Though the probability scale is continuous, and innately interpretable, performance summaries based on thresholds are useful for comparisons. Using a threshold probability of pathogenicity of 0.9, we obtain a positive predictive value of 0.999 and sensitivity of 0.76 for the classification of variants known to cause long QT syndrome over the three most important genes, which represents sufficient accuracy to inform clinical decision-making. A web tool APPRAISE [http://www.cardiodb.org/APPRAISE] provides access to these models and predictions. CONCLUSIONS: Our Bayesian framework provides a transparent, flexible and robust framework for the analysis and interpretation of rare genetic variants. Models tailored to specific genes outperform genome-wide approaches, and can be sufficiently accurate to inform clinical decision-making

Sudden Death and Left Ventricular Involvement in Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND: Arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy (ACM) is an inherited heart muscle disorder characterized by myocardial fibrofatty replacement and an increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Originally described as a right ventricular disease, ACM is increasingly recognized as a biventricular entity. We evaluated pathological, genetic, and clinical associations in a large SCD cohort. METHODS: We investigated 5205 consecutive cases of SCD referred to a national cardiac pathology center between 1994 and 2018. Hearts and tissue blocks were examined by expert cardiac pathologists. After comprehensive histological evaluation, 202 cases (4%) were diagnosed with ACM. Of these, 15 (7%) were diagnosed antemortem with dilated cardiomyopathy (n=8) or ACM (n=7). Previous symptoms, medical history, circumstances of death, and participation in competitive sport were recorded. Postmortem genetic testing was undertaken in 24 of 202 (12%). Rare genetic variants were classified according to American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics criteria. RESULTS: Of 202 ACM decedents (35.4±13.2 years; 82% male), no previous cardiac symptoms were reported in 157 (78%). Forty-one decedents (41/202; 20%) had been participants in competitive sport. The adjusted odds of dying during physical exertion were higher in men than in women (odds ratio, 4.58; 95% CI, 1.54-13.68; P=0.006) and in competitive athletes in comparison with nonathletes (odds ratio, 16.62; 95% CI, 5.39-51.24; P<0.001). None of the decedents with an antemortem diagnosis of dilated cardiomyopathy fulfilled definite 2010 Task Force criteria. The macroscopic appearance of the heart was normal in 40 of 202 (20%) cases. There was left ventricular histopathologic involvement in 176 of 202 (87%). Isolated right ventricular disease was seen in 13%, isolated left ventricular disease in 17%, and biventricular involvement in 70%. Among whole hearts, the most common areas of fibrofatty infiltration were the left ventricular posterobasal (68%) and anterolateral walls (58%). Postmortem genetic testing yielded pathogenic variants in ACM-related genes in 6 of 24 (25%) decedents. CONCLUSIONS: SCD attributable to ACM affects men predominantly, most commonly occurring during exertion in athletic individuals in the absence of previous reported cardiac symptoms. Left ventricular involvement is observed in the vast majority of SCD cases diagnosed with ACM at autopsy. Current Task Force criteria may fail to diagnose biventricular ACM before death

Histiocytoid cardiomyopathy and microphthalmia with linear skin defects syndrome: phenotypes linked by truncating variants in NDUFB11

Variants in NDUFB11, which encodes a structural component of complex I of the mitochondrial respiratory chain (MRC), were recently independently reported to cause histiocytoid cardiomyopathy (histiocytoid CM) and microphthalmia with linear skin defects syndrome (MLS syndrome). Here we report an additional case of histiocytoid CM, which carries a de novo nonsense variant in NDUFB11 (ENST00000276062.8: c.262C > T; p.[Arg88*]) identified using whole-exome sequencing (WES) of a family trio. An identical variant has been previously reported in association with MLS syndrome. The case we describe here lacked the diagnostic features of MLS syndrome, but a detailed clinical comparison of the two cases revealed significant phenotypic overlap. Heterozygous variants in HCCS (which encodes an important mitochondrially targeted protein) and COX7B, which, like NDUFB11, encodes a protein of the MRC, have also previously been identified in MLS syndrome including a case with features of both MLS syndrome and histiocytoid CM. However, a systematic review of WES data from previously published histiocytoid CM cases, alongside four additional cases presented here for the first time, did not identify any variants in these genes. We conclude that NDUFB11 variants play a role in the pathogenesis of both histiocytoid CM and MLS and that these disorders are allelic (genetically related)

Evaluation of two interaction techniques for visualization of dynamic graphs

Several techniques for visualization of dynamic graphs are based on different spatial arrangements of a temporal sequence of node-link diagrams. Many studies in the literature have investigated the importance of maintaining the user's mental map across this temporal sequence, but usually each layout is considered as a static graph drawing and the effect of user interaction is disregarded. We conducted a task-based controlled experiment to assess the effectiveness of two basic interaction techniques: the adjustment of the layout stability and the highlighting of adjacent nodes and edges. We found that generally both interaction techniques increase accuracy, sometimes at the cost of longer completion times, and that the highlighting outclasses the stability adjustment for many tasks except the most complex ones.Comment: Appears in the Proceedings of the 24th International Symposium on Graph Drawing and Network Visualization (GD 2016

How does reviewing the evidence change veterinary surgeons' beliefs regarding the treatment of ovine footrot? A quantitative and qualitative study

Footrot is a widespread, infectious cause of lameness in sheep, with major economic and welfare costs. The aims of this research were: (i) to quantify how veterinary surgeons’ beliefs regarding the efficacy of two treatments for footrot changed following a review of the evidence (ii) to obtain a consensus opinion following group discussions (iii) to capture complementary qualitative data to place their beliefs within a broader clinical context. Grounded in a Bayesian statistical framework, probabilistic elicitation (roulette method) was used to quantify the beliefs of eleven veterinary surgeons during two one-day workshops. There was considerable heterogeneity in veterinary surgeons’ beliefs before they listened to a review of the evidence. After hearing the evidence, seven participants quantifiably changed their beliefs. In particular, two participants who initially believed that foot trimming with topical oxytetracycline was the better treatment, changed to entirely favour systemic and topical oxytetracycline instead. The results suggest that a substantial amount of the variation in beliefs related to differences in veterinary surgeons’ knowledge of the evidence. Although considerable differences in opinion still remained after the evidence review, with several participants having non-overlapping 95% credible intervals, both groups did achieve a consensus opinion. Two key findings from the qualitative data were: (i) veterinary surgeons believed that farmers are unlikely to actively seek advice on lameness, suggesting a proactive veterinary approach is required (ii) more attention could be given to improving the way in which veterinary advice is delivered to farmers. In summary this study has: (i) demonstrated a practical method for probabilistically quantifying how veterinary surgeons’ beliefs change (ii) revealed that the evidence that currently exists is capable of changing veterinary opinion (iii) suggested that improved transfer of research knowledge into veterinary practice is needed (iv) identified some potential obstacles to the implementation of veterinary advice by farmers

Effects of deletion of the Streptococcus pneumoniae lipoprotein diacylglyceryl transferase gene lgt on ABC transporter function and on growth in vivo

Lipoproteins are an important class of surface associated proteins that have diverse roles and frequently are involved in the virulence of bacterial pathogens. As prolipoproteins are attached to the cell membrane by a single enzyme, prolipoprotein diacylglyceryl transferase (Lgt), deletion of the corresponding gene potentially allows the characterisation of the overall importance of lipoproteins for specific bacterial functions. We have used a Δlgt mutant strain of Streptococcus pneumoniae to investigate the effects of loss of lipoprotein attachment on cation acquisition, growth in media containing specific carbon sources, and virulence in different infection models. Immunoblots of triton X-114 extracts, flow cytometry and immuno-fluorescence microscopy confirmed the Δlgt mutant had markedly reduced lipoprotein expression on the cell surface. The Δlgt mutant had reduced growth in cation depleted medium, increased sensitivity to oxidative stress, reduced zinc uptake, and reduced intracellular levels of several cations. Doubling time of the Δlgt mutant was also increased slightly when grown in medium with glucose, raffinose and maltotriose as sole carbon sources. These multiple defects in cation and sugar ABC transporter function for the Δlgt mutant were associated with only slightly delayed growth in complete medium. However the Δlgt mutant had significantly reduced growth in blood or bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and a marked impairment in virulence in mouse models of nasopharyngeal colonisation, sepsis and pneumonia. These data suggest that for S. pneumoniae loss of surface localisation of lipoproteins has widespread effects on ABC transporter functions that collectively prevent the Δlgt mutant from establishing invasive infection

An Australian longitudinal pilot study examining health determinants of cardiac outcomes 12 months post percutaneous coronary intervention

Background Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a very common revascularisation procedure for coronary artery disease (CAD). The purpose of this study was to evaluate cardiac outcomes, health related quality of life (HRQoL), resilience and adherence behaviours in patients who have undergone a PCI at two time points (6 and 12 months) following their procedure. Methods A longitudinal pilot study was conducted to observe the cardiac outcomes across a cohort of patients who had undergone a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Participants who had undergone PCI 6 months prior were invited. Those participants who met the inclusion criteria and provided consent then completed a telephone survey (time point 1). These participants were then contacted 6 months later (i.e. 12 months post-intervention, time point 2) and the measures were repeated. Results All patients (n = 51) were recorded as being alive at time point 1. The multiple model indicated that controlling for other factors, gender was significantly associated with a linear combination of outcome measures (p = 0.004). The effect was moderate in magnitude (partial-η2 = 0.303), where males performed significantly better than females 6 months after the PCI procedure physically and with mood. Follow-up univariate ANOVAs indicated that gender differences were grounded in the scale measuring depression (PHQ9) (p = 0.005) and the physical component score of the short form measuring HRQoL (SF12-PCS) (p = 0.003). Thirteen patients were lost to follow-up between time points 1 and 2. One patient was confirmed to have passed away. The pattern of correlations between outcome measures at time point 2 revealed statistically significant negative correlation between the PHQ instrument and the resilience scale (CD-RISC) (r = -0.611; p < 0.001); and the physical component score of the SF-12 instrument (r = -0.437; p = 0.054). Conclusions Men were performing better than women in the 6 months post-PCI, particularly in the areas of mood (depression) and physical health. This pilot results indicate gender-sensitive practices are recommended particularly up to 6 months post-PCI. Any gender differences observed at 6 month appear to disappear at 12 months post-PCI. Further research into the management of mood particularly for women post-PCI is warranted. A more detailed inquiry related to access/attendance to secondary prevention is also warranted