Design of temperature insurance index and risk zonation for single-season rice in response to high-temperature and low-temperature damage: a case study of Jiangsu Province, China.

Disaster insurance is an important tool for achieving sustainable development in modern agriculture. However, in China, the design of such insurance indexes is far from sufficient. In this paper, the single-season rice in Jiangsu Province of China is taken as an example to design the high-temperature damage index in summer and the low-temperature damage index in autumn to constructtheformulacalculatingtheweatheroutputandsingle-seasonriceyieldreduction. Thedaily highest, lowest and average temperatures between 1999 and 2015 are selected as main variables for the temperature disaster index to quantitatively analyze the relationship between the temperature indexandtheyieldreductionrateofthesingle-seasonrice. Thetemperaturedisasterindexcanbeput into the relevant model to obtain the yield reduction rate of the year and determine whether to pay the indemnity. Then, the burn analysis is used to determine the insurance premium rate for all cities in Jiangsu Province under four-level deductibles, and the insurance premium rate can be used for the risk division of the Province. The research provides some insights for the design of agricultural weather insurance products, and the empirical results provide a reference for the design of similar single-season rice temperature index insurance products

Gut microbiota and calcium balance

Microorganisms living on the surface and inside the human body play an important role in the physiological activities of the human body. The largest microecosystem in the human body is the gut microbiome. Calcium disorders are found in many diseases. For example, patients with chronic renal insufficiency present with secondary hyperparathyroidism, which is caused by a calcium imbalance in the body. In addition, calcium dysregulation may affect lipid metabolism in the liver through the calmodulator pathway, leading to cirrhosis, etc. Currently, a considerable number of probiotics have been proven to enhance the body’s absorption of calcium. This paper reviews the effects of intestinal flora and related factors such as short-chain fatty acids, estrogen, immune factors and vitamin D on calcium balance

Building nonenhanced CT based radiomics model in discriminating arteriovenous malformation related hematomas from hypertensive intracerebral hematomas

ObjectiveTo develop and validate radiomics models on non-enhanced CT for discrimination of arteriovenous malformation (AVM) related hematomas from hypertensive intracerebral hematomas.Materials and methodsA total of 571 patients with acute intraparenchymal hematomas and baseline non-enhanced CT scans were retrospectively analyzed, including 297 cases of AVM related hematomas and 274 cases of hypertensive intracerebral hematomas. The patients were divided into training and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio with a random seed. A total of 1,688 radiomics features of hematomas were extracted from non-enhanced CT. Then, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was applied to select features and construct the radiomics models. In this study, a radiomics-based model was constructed that based on the radiomics features only. Furthermore, a combined model was constructed using radiomics features, clinical characteristics and radiological signs by radiologists’ evaluation. In addition, we compared predictive performance of the two models for discrimination of AVM related hematomas from hypertensive intracerebral hematomas.ResultsA total of 67 radiomics features were selected to establish radiomics signature via LASSO regression. The radiomics-based model was constructed with 2 classifiers, support vector machine (SVM) and logistic regression (LR). AUCs of the radiomics-based model in the training set were 0.894 and 0.904, in validation set were 0.774 and 0.782 in SVM classifier and LR classifier, respectively. AUCs of the combined model (combined with radiomics, age and calcification) in the training set were 0.976 and 0.981, in validation set were 0.896 and 0.907 in SVM classifier and LR classifier, respectively. The combined model showed greater AUCs than radiomics-based model in both training set and validation set.ConclusionThe combined model using radiomics, age and calcification showed a satisfactory predictive performance for discrimination of AVM related hematomas from hypertensive intracerebral hematomas and hold great potential for personalized clinical decision

Exosomes Derived From Pericytes Improve Microcirculation and Protect Blood–Spinal Cord Barrier After Spinal Cord Injury in Mice

Spinal cord injury (SCI) often leads to severe and permanent paralysis and places a heavy burden on individuals, families, and society. Until now, the therapy of SCI is still a big challenge for the researchers. Transplantation of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) is a hot spot for the treatment of SCI, but many problems and risks have not been resolved. Some studies have reported that the therapeutic effect of MSCs on SCI is related to the paracrine secretion of cells. The exosomes secreted by MSCs have therapeutic potential for many diseases. There are abundant pericytes which possess the characteristics of stem cells in the neurovascular unit. Due to the close relationship between pericytes and endothelial cells, the exosomes of pericytes can be taken up by endothelial cells more easily. There are fewer studies about the therapeutic potential of the exosomes derived from pericytes on SCI now. In this study, exosomes of pericytes were transplanted into the mice with SCI to study the restoration of motor function and explore the underlying mechanism. We found that the exosomes derived from pericytes could reduce pathological changes, improve the motor function, the blood flow and oxygen deficiency after SCI. In addition, the exosomes could improve the endothelial ability to regulate blood flow, protect the blood-spinal cord barrier, reduce edema, decrease the expression of HIF-1α, Bax, Aquaporin-4, and MMP2, increase the expression of Claudin-5, bcl-2 and inhibit apoptosis. The experiments in vitro proved that exosomes derived from pericytes could protect the barrier of spinal cord microvascular endothelial cells under hypoxia condition, which was related to PTEN/AKT pathway. In summary, our study showed that exosomes of pericytes had therapeutic prospects for SCI

Natural disasters, economic growth and sustainable development in China: an empirical study using provincial panel data

Using a newly developed integrated indicator system with entropy weighting, we analyzed the panel data of 577 recorded disasters in 30 provinces of China from 1985–2011 to identify their links with the subsequent economic growth. Meteorological disasters promote economic growth through human capital instead of physical capital. Geological disasters did not trigger local economic growth from 1999–2011. Generally, natural disasters overall had no significant impact on economic growth from 1985–1998. Thus, human capital reinvestment should be the aim in managing recoveries, and it should be used to regenerate the local economy based on long-term sustainable development

Is temperature-index derivative suitable for China?

In this paper, we assessed the suitability of temperature derivatives for China through modeling. We assumed that if the physical dynamics of temperature of some cities are identical, then the same types of temperature derivatives can be used in these cities. Nearly twenty years temperature data of forty-seven cities with traded temperature derivatives on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) and seven Chinese cities were collected and analyzed in a two-step approach. Firstly, the AR-EGARCH model capturing the shock asymmetry of the volatility of temperature is used to simulate the dynamics of temperature of the cities. Secondly, the temperature of the cities are classified through cluster analysis based on model parameters from the AR-EGARCH model. The results showed that the fitting effect of the AR-EGARCH model is very good, and only a few cities did not display the shock asymmetry. The model for Nanjing fitted well into one of the categories of the cities in the CME; but the other six Chinese cities belong to new categories, which are different from the cities in the CME. We concluded that HDD and CAT in Europe and CAT∗ in Japan can be used directly in Nanjing, but the existing temperature derivatives in CME were unsuitable for the other six Chinese cities. Recommendations for the establishment of weather derivatives market in China have been proposed

Rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease risk prediction in anti-MDA5 positive dermatomyositis: the CROSS model

BackgroundThe prognosis of anti-melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5 positive dermatomyositis (anti-MDA5+DM) is poor and heterogeneous. Rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease (RP-ILD) is these patients’ leading cause of death. We sought to develop prediction models for RP-ILD risk in anti-MDA5+DM patients.MethodsPatients with anti-MDA5+DM were enrolled in two cohorts: 170 patients from the southern region of Jiangsu province (discovery cohort) and 85 patients from the northern region of Jiangsu province (validation cohort). Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors of RP-ILD. RP-ILD risk prediction models were developed and validated by testing every independent prognostic risk factor derived from the Cox model.ResultsThere are no significant differences in baseline clinical parameters and prognosis between discovery and validation cohorts. Among all 255 anti-MDA5+DM patients, with a median follow-up of 12 months, the incidence of RP-ILD was 36.86%. Using the discovery cohort, four variables were included in the final risk prediction model for RP-ILD: C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, anti-Ro52 antibody positivity, short disease duration, and male sex. A point scoring system was used to classify anti-MDA5+DM patients into moderate, high, and very high risk of RP-ILD. After one-year follow-up, the incidence of RP-ILD in the very high risk group was 71.3% and 85.71%, significantly higher than those in the high-risk group (35.19%, 41.69%) and moderate-risk group (9.54%, 6.67%) in both cohorts.ConclusionsThe CROSS model is an easy-to-use prediction classification system for RP-ILD risk in anti-MDA5+DM patients. It has great application prospect in disease management

Regional variation in hemoglobin distribution among individuals with chronic kidney disease: the ISN International Network of Chronic Kidney Disease (iNET-CKD) Cohorts

Introduction: Despite recognized geographic and sex-based differences in hemoglobin in the general population, these factors are typically ignored in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in whom a single therapeutic range for hemoglobin is recommended. We sought to compare the distribution of hemoglobin across international nondialysis CKD populations and evaluate predictors of hemoglobin.Methods: In this cross-sectional study, hemoglobin distribution was evaluated in each cohort overall and stratified by sex and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Relationships between candidate predictors and hemoglobin were assessed from linear regression models in each cohort. Estimates were subsequently pooled in a random effects model.Results: A total of 58,613 participants from 21 adult cohorts (median eGFR range of 17–49 ml/min) and 3 pediatric cohorts (median eGFR range of 26–45 ml/min) were included with broad geographic representation. Hemoglobin values varied substantially among the cohorts, overall and within eGFR categories, with particularly low mean hemoglobin observed in women from Asian and African cohorts. Across the eGFR range, women had a lower hemoglobin compared to men, even at an eGFR of 15 ml/min (mean difference 5.3 g/l, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.7–6.9). Lower eGFR, female sex, older age, lower body mass index, and diabetic kidney disease were all independent predictors of a lower hemoglobin value; however, this only explained a minority of variance (R2 7%–44% across cohorts).Conclusion: There are substantial regional differences in hemoglobin distribution among individuals with CKD, and the majority of variance is unexplained by demographics, eGFR, or comorbidities. These findings call for a renewed interest in improving our understanding of hemoglobin determinants in specific CKD populations.</p