SEAwise report on the bycatch mortality risk of potentially endangered and threatened species of fish, seabirds, reptiles and mammals

The SEAwise project works to deliver a fully operational tool that will allow fishers, managers, and policy makers to easily apply Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) in their fisheries and bycatch of protected, endangered and threatened (PET) species is a major concern in EBFM implementation. This SEAwise report evaluates the effects of fishing on bycatch of PET species by applying a hierarchical framework that moves from qualitative to quantitative methodologies depending on species vulnerability to bycatch and data availability. By these means, this work identifies current areas of highest bycatch risk across the case studies and assesses the sustainability of bycatch levels on PET populations.The first step of this report consisted of the application of the semi-quantitative Productivity-Susceptibility Analysis (PSA) to a wide range of sensitive species across European waters, including cetaceans, bony and cartilaginous fishes and a single seabird species. PSA measures the risk of a species to over-exploitation by a fishery based on two properties; productivity, defined by the life history characteristics determining the intrinsic rate of population increase, and susceptibility, based on the interactions between population and fishing dynamics. This analysis scores species’ productivity and susceptibility attributes from 1 (low risk) to 3 (high risk) for each fishery or gear of interest, allowing a rapid screening of the species most likely affected by bycatch.Cetaceans were assessed in the Bay of Biscay and Irish waters, and in both cases, gillnets were identified as the gears with the highest bycatch risk, especially for common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) and harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena). Cartilaginous fishes were assessed in the Mediterranean Sea, including pelagic species such as the blue shark (Prionace glauca) and demersal species such as the longnose spurgod (Squalus blainville), the bull ray (Aetomylaeus bovinus) and the common smooth-hound (Mustelus mustelus). The blue shark, which is Critically Endangered in the Mediterranean, showed a high risk of being bycaught by pelagic longline, while demersal species were all highly threatened by bottom trawlers. A combination of elasmobranchs and teleost fishes was assessed along the North Sea, Bay of Biscay, and Celtic Seas, including common skate complex (Dipturus spp.), blonde ray (Raja brachyura), spurdog (Squalus acanthias), tope (Galeorhinus galeus), spotted ray (Raja montagui), undulate ray (Raja undulata), starry ray (Amblyraja radiata), John dory (Zeus faber), Atlantic wolffish (Anarhichas lupus) and Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus). Highest bycatch risk was found for the common skate complex, spurdog and tope, showing highest bycatch risk for both beam- and otter trawls, as well as gillnets. The only seabird species analysed was the critically endangered Balearic shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus), which showed a high risk to longlines in the Bay of Biscay.Where quantitative data were available for populations size and bycatch in e.g, ICES reports, the impact of fisheries bycatch was estimated quantitively by estimating reference points and by comparing them to total bycatch mortalities. This quantitative assessment was completed for two cetaceans and two elasmobranch species that were also included in the previous step. Bycatch impact for the common dolphin in the Northeast Atlantic and for harbour porpoise in Irish waters was found to be unsustainable, as current bycatch mortalities are above the “allowable” capture limits in both cases. For spurdog and undulate ray in the Northeast Atlantic and English Channel, respectively, the fishing pressure on the stock was sustainable, as it is below the harvest rate of Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). Reference points for seabirds were also estimated, but no comparison with bycatch mortality could be done due to lack of data. Additionally, quantitative assessments were produced for grey seal in the North Sea and loggerhead turtle in the Mediterranean (despite not being included in the previous step), where current bycatch rates were evaluated to be sustainable.Specific analyses were conducted for the Baltic Sea harbour porpoise with previously unused bycatch data from gillnets. Bycatch was modelled to estimate total bycatch mortality, addressing several objectives at once. On one hand, estimated total bycatch was compared with reference points, which showed that the current bycatch level was unsustainable for the population. Secondly, estimated total bycatch was compared with the results provided by previous simpler extrapolations, demonstrating that the later should not be applied when the fishery is heterogeneous due to the potential to provide biased estimates.Overall, the qualitative approaches are commonly used as a tool to identify species that are minimally affected, so the more intensive analysed are limited to high-risk species. Here, most species analysed showed-medium-high risk and therefore, all of them should have been analysed in further steps. However, many of those species lack the necessary information to conduct a quantitative assessment, and as result, the impact of bycatch at population level could only be evaluated, as seen above, for a few of them. This highlights the need for more exhaustive data collection and further research that could answer to the requirements of the EBFM.More information about the SEAwise project can be found at https://seawiseproject.org/</p

SEAwise report on historic and future spatial distribution of fished stocks

This SEAwise report assesses the distribution of fish species across European seas. To this end, an ICES workshop, WKFISHDISH2, was co-organised to reach out to the broader scientific community and acquire as much knowledge as possible on scientific surveys and species distribution models. A large amount of historical scientific survey data, stored in the DATRAS and MEDITS databases, served as basis for the development of guidelines on how to appropriately pre-process such data, analyse them with state-of-the-art species distribution models (SDMs), and define metrics on how to compare species distributions. Distribution maps were generated separately for the Mediterranean Sea and the Northeast Atlantic spanning the Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, Bay of Biscay and Iberian Coast.  In general, there was good agreement between the distributions generated by different models that were applied to four different reference species with different characteristics in terms of spatial distribution. Differences between models were mainly related to the configuration of spatiotemporal processes, and the extrapolation, mainly in areas with few observations, or where correlates extend to values outside the observed range.  Trends in species distribution were species specific. Some species have shifted in a northward direction, while the distribution of other species was static, or characterized by a southward trend. It is difficult to have a mechanistic understanding, e.g. migration due to climate change, local outbursts, and/or local depletion of fish stocks, of these changes based on survey data that does not allow tracking of individual fish. Potential climate related shifts were instead investigated by linking the survey data with oceanographic variables generated through coupled hydrodynamic-biochemical models. This allowed us to explore how species distributions may change under different scenarios of climate change.  More information about the SEAwise project can be found at www.seawiseproject.org</p

SEAwise Report on key drivers and impacts of changes in spatial distribution of fisheries and fished stocks

   An ecosystem approach to fisheries management requires the consideration of spatially explicit management measures and other impacts on species and the links between the distribution of fished species, their surrounding environment and productivity. Quantification of the spatial aspects of fisheries and ecology of commercially fished stocks may improve the accuracy of the predicted changes in fish productivity, fisheries yield and costs, benefits and selectivity.  To provide a knowledge base for spatially explicit considerations, SEAwise consulted stakeholders throughout Europe and conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature. As a first step, engagement with relevant stakeholder groups in each Case Study identified key issues of relevance to spatial management. The input from this stakeholder consultation was supplemented by a systematic literature review with careful consideration of the objectives, search terms, inclusion/exclusion criteria, the method for data/knowledge extraction and ultimately how these data and knowledge will be used. The purpose of the task was to quantify the key drivers and pressures behind the changes occurring in commercial fish stocks and fisheries distribution that have a spatially explicit content, map the relevant existing scientific knowledge and provide input to the subsequent SEAwise tasks.  The words identified by the stakeholders consulted focused on factors causing changes to the distribution of commercial fish/shellfish (climate change, MPAs, species interactions, pollution, habitats and invasive species) and fisheries (windfarms, MPAs, Marine spatial planning) as well as the other human impacts. The systematic review extracted data from 331 papers. The most frequently studied topic was the distribution of fish and the region with most papers was the North Sea with about the twice the amount of papers in each of the other regions. The most frequently studied species in the literature were cod, hake and plaice and by far the most frequently studied fisheries was demersal trawl fisheries.  Among the issues identified by stakeholders as key, the effects of environmental conditions on the distribution of fish were particularly well represented in the reviewed material. In contrast, factors determining the distribution of fisheries were almost exclusively studied in trawl fishing in the North Sea and papers on the effect of area restrictions on fish and fisheries were largely restricted to Western waters and the North Sea. While knowledge on the effects of habitats on species did exist, this was restricted to the Baltic Sea and North Sea and papers addressing this outside these areas were close to non-existent. This points to important areas for future work in SEAwise. This report describes part of the results of the SEAwise project. More information about the project can be found at https://seawiseproject.org/ </p

SEAwise Report on improved predictive models of growth, production and stock quality.

The SEAwise project works to deliver a fully operational tool that will allow fishers, managers, and policy makers to easily apply Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) in their fisheries and understanding how ecological drivers impact stock productivity through growth, condition and maturity is essential to this proces. In this SEAwise report, we present the predictive models of fish growth, condition and maturity obtained so far in each of the four regional case studies.The biological processes (fish growth, condition and maturity) were studied in terms of body size (weight-at-age, length-at-age), condition factor, otolith increments and size at first maturity. Underlying data were available at different levels, ranging from individual fish, to sampling haul or stock level. Accordingly, the methods employed varied across case studies to adapt to the specific features of the process under study and the available data.The methodology encompassed statistical models (linear models, generalised additive models, mixed models, Bayesian nested hierarchical models, changepoint models), otolith growth increment analyses and mechanistic models (DEB-IBM model coupled to the environment and mizer model). Some of these models were focused on detecting overall trends, including potential changepoints along the time series or identification of the main intrinsic factors. Other models explored the impact of ecological drivers such as temperature, salinity, food availability or density dependence.In the Baltic Sea, two regimes were identified in the weight-at-age time series of herring in the Gulf of Riga (1961-1988 and 1989-2020). During the first period the main driver of the individual annual growth of the fish was the abundance of the copepod L. macrurus macrurus, while the abundance of the adult stages of E. affinis affinis was the dominating explanatory variable affecting herring growth during the second period. Neither SSB nor summer temperature during the main feeding period were significant drivers of the individual growth in the two distinct ecosystem regimes.In the Mediterranean Sea, the analysis of the impact of the environmental variables on biological parameters like size at first maturity, condition factor and growth in South Adriatic Sea and North-West Ionian Sea showed some significant effects in relation to the different species/area. In most of the cases, the environmental driver was bottom temperature, although some relationships with bottom salinity and primary production were also found. The model outcomes suggested that temperatures prevailing in deeper waters were the most significant factor affecting gonad maturity of hakes, while those in the shallow zone had the main impact on the L50 of red mullets. Condition factor of hake and red mullet in the Eastern Ionian Sea were affected not only by temperature, but also by zooplankton abundance.In the North Sea, mediated length-based growth models, linear mixed models and state-space linear mixed models were applied to four gadoids, two flatfishes and one pelagic stock and their performances were assessed in terms of model fit and predictive capability. For the mediated length-based growth model approach, the best model differed across stocks, but density dependent mediation effects were significant for five out of the seven stocks. Regarding the linear mixed models, the two types of models and the different penalisation procedures led to different models across stocks. Among the additional ecological variables, surface temperature was the most frequently included in the final model, closely followed closely by SSB and to a lesser extent by NAO. Detailed otolith increment analysis was used in the development of multidecadal biochronologies of average annual growth of sole in the North Sea and in the Irish Sea. In the North Sea, the best extrinsic model of sole growth included sea bottom temperature, fishing mortality at age, and stock biomass at maturity stage, and their interactions with age and maturity stage, while in the Irish Sea, the best extrinsic model included sea bottom temperature and fishing mortality at maturity stage and its interaction with maturity stage. These results confirmed the expected positive effect of temperature on adult growth. However, in the North Sea, temperature showed unexpected negative effect on juvenile growth, which might be linked to changes in food availability and/or intraspecific competition and need to be further studied. The mizer model (package for size-spectrum ecological modelling) with environmental forcing was used to study whether warming in the North Sea is responsible for the failure of the cod stock. The simulated fish community response when recruitment and carrying capacity depended on surface temperature fitted better with the assessment data than when the environment was fixed. However, the qualitative differences remain, suggesting that temperature effects were not the main cause of the model-assessment disparity.In the Western Waters, the mediated length-based growth models developed for the North Sea case study were applied to 14 stocks in the Celtic Sea. The best model differed across stocks, but again SSB mediation was significant for most of the stocks. From visual inspection of the plots, however, it was noted that the raw data from certain stock objects showed a reduced growth compared to the model fits, requiring further analyses. The analysis on biological measurements of individuals collected at fish markets, observers at sea or during scientific cruises allowed to study temporal variations in body size and condition factor of benthic, pelagic and demersal species in the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay. The linear models indicated a significant negative monotonic relationship of sizes at all ages for anchovy and pilchard, but variations in size at age were less clear and significant for benthic and demersal species. In contrast, the results of the body condition indices showed a moderate but significant decrease for all the studied 19 species over time. The in-depth analysis for anchovy in the Bay of Biscay based on research surveys confirmed the decline in the length and weight of anchovy in the Bay of Biscay and pointed to a decline in body condition toward slender body shapes. Detected associations between temperature and size became more apparent for adult age classes than for juveniles, whereas the association between anchovy size and the biomass of spawners was more important for juvenile than for adult age classes. Associations between anchovy size and chlorophyll-a concentration were in general weak. Finally, the DEB-IBM model coupled to the environment that is under development for the two main seabass stocks of the North East Atlantic will provide further insights on how growth, condition and maturation can affect the future dynamics and productivity of these stocks.Read more about the project at www.seawiseproject.org</p