Finite mixture models of heterogeneous capture probabilities for mark-recapture estimation of closed population size

Heterogeneity in capture probabilities among animals is a common problem for estimation of animal population size from mark-recapture data. We model animals as belonging to discrete groups in which animals have the same probabilities of first capture and recapture. For removal data, population size, probabilities of first capture, and mixture proportions are estimated by maximum likelihood for a geometric finite mixture model. For mark-recapture data, a binomial finite mixture for recaptures is combined with a geometric finite mixture for first captures to better estimate mixture proportions. This model can be restricted for the assumption of no behavioral response to first capture.;On Carother\u27s (1973) taxi cab data, estimation with a 2-group mark-recapture finite mixture provided a population size estimate, N = 420, that exactly matched the registered number of cabs. On meadow vole data, estimation with a 3-group model showed heterogeneity in behavioral response to first capture. Simulations show that our 2-group mark-recapture finite mixture estimator with restriction for no behavioral response to first capture is more efficient than Burham and Overtons\u27 (1978) jackknife estimator when the smallest probability of first capture is 0.1 and the number of sampling occasions is 10

An assessment of pediatric residency applicant perceptions of Fit during the virtual interview era

PURPOSE: Residency recruitment events and interviews are widely considered an integral component of the residency match experience. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, residency recruitment and interviewing throughout the 2020-2021 academic year were performed virtually, which created challenges for applicants\u27 ability to discern fit to a program. Given this change, it is reasonable to suspect that applicants would be less able to discern program fit. Therefore, this study evaluated how virtual interviews impacted pediatric residency applicants\u27 ability to assess factors contributing to fit and subsequently how applicants assessed their self-perceived fit to their top-ranked programs. METHODS: An online, anonymous survey was distributed to all residency applicants who applied to any specialty at our large academic institution. The survey utilized a 5-point Likert-type scale to evaluate qualities of fit as well as the applicants\u27 self-perceived ability to assess these qualities through a virtual platform. RESULTS: 1,840 surveys were distributed, of which 473 residency applicants responded (25.7% response rate). Among these responses, 81 were pediatric applicants (27.6%). Factors deemed most important in determining fit included how well the residents get along with one another (98.8%), how much the program appeared to care about its trainees (97.5%), and how satisfied residents were with their program (97.5%). Qualities deemed most difficult for applicants to discern included the quality of facilities (18.6%), patient diversity (29.4%), and how well the residents got along with one another (30.2%). When compared to all other residency applicants, pediatric applicants placed more value on whether a program was family-friendly (p = 0.015), the quality of the facilities (p = 0.009), and the on-call system (p = 0.038). CONCLUSION: This study highlights factors that influence pediatric applicants\u27 perception of fit into a program. Unfortunately, many factors deemed most important for pediatric applicants were also among the most difficult to assess virtually. These include resident camaraderie, whether a program cares about its residents, and overall resident satisfaction. Taken together, these findings and the recommendations presented should be considered by all residency program leaders to ensure the successful recruitment of a pediatric residency class

Children with supratentorial midline pilocytic astrocytomas exhibit multiple progressions and acquisition of neurologic deficits over time

Pilocytic astrocytomas are the most common solid tumor of childhood and can arise anywhere in the central nervous system, including the posterior fossa (pf-PA), supratentorial midline (sm-PA; including optic pathway, hypothalamus, thalamus), and brainstem (bs-PA). Location (sm, bs) has been previously proposed as a prognostic factor for PA, but is difficult to separate from resection status on multivariate analysis. To overcome this limitation, we assembled a large cohort of children (n = 251) with biopsy-proved PA treated at St. Louis Children’s Hospital from 2003 – 2021 and analyzed outcomes only in patients with subtotal resection (STR; n = 81). We excluded patients with NF1, as NF1-associated gliomas often display a more indolent clinical course than their counterparts. We identified that children with STR sm-PA had a higher likelihood of multiple progressions compared to children with STR bs-PA and pf-PA. This was associated with worsening neurologic deficits over time, consistent with the sm location as a poor prognostic factor. Furthermore, the only children in our cohort with leptomeningeal dissemination or death harbored sm-PAs. Tumors in this location were also associated with an increased likelihood of non-BRAF-fusion genetic alterations and multiple oncogenic mutations. Overall, these data support location as an independent prognostic factor for PA in cases in which a gross-total resection cannot be achieved. Treating neuro-oncologists may thus wish to consider early intervention rather than watch-and-wait strategies at first progression of STR sm-PA. These patients may also benefit from earlier consideration of molecularly targeted therapy

Skin cancer precursor immunotherapy for squamous cell carcinoma prevention

BACKGROUND: Topical calcipotriol plus 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) combination is an effective immunotherapy against actinic keratosis (AK), which is a precursor to squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). However, the long-term effectiveness of calcipotriol plus 5-FU treatment for SCC prevention is unknown. METHODS: We performed a blinded prospective cohort study on participants of a randomized double-blind clinical trial in which a 4-day course of topical calcipotriol plus 5-FU combination was compared to Vaseline plus 5-FU (control) for AK treatment. SCC and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) incidences were assessed at 1, 2, and 3 years after trial. Tissues were analyzed for calcipotriol plus 5-FU-induced T cell immunity in the skin. RESULTS: Calcipotriol plus 5-FU-induced tissue-resident memory T (Trm) cell formation in face and scalp skin associated with significantly higher erythema scores compared with control (P \u3c 0.01). Importantly, more participants in the test cohort remained SCC-free over the more than 1,500-day follow-up period (P = 0.0765), and significantly fewer developed SCC on the treated face and scalp within 3 years (2 of 30 [7%] versus 11 of 40 [28%] in control group, hazard ratio 0.215 [95% CI: 0.048-0.972], P = 0.032). Accordingly, significantly more epidermal Trm cells persisted in the calcipotriol plus 5-FU-treated face and scalp skin compared with control (P = 0.0028). There was no significant difference in BCC incidence between the treatment groups. CONCLUSION: A short course of calcipotriol plus 5-FU treatment on the face and scalp is associated with induction of robust T cell immunity and Trm formation against AKs and significantly lowers the risk of SCC development within 3 years of treatment. FUNDING: This research was supported by internal academic funds and by grants from the Burroughs Wellcome Fund, Sidney Kimmel Foundation, Cancer Research Institute, and NIH

Diffusion basis spectrum imaging detects subclinical traumatic optic neuropathy in a closed-head impact mouse model of traumatic brain injury

INTRODUCTION: Traumatic optic neuropathy (TON) is the optic nerve injury secondary to brain trauma leading to visual impairment and vision loss. Current clinical visual function assessments often fail to detect TON due to slow disease progression and clinically silent lesions resulting in potentially delayed or missed treatment in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). METHODS: Diffusion basis spectrum imaging (DBSI) is a novel imaging modality that can potentially fill this diagnostic gap. Twenty-two, 16-week-old, male mice were equally divided into a sham or TBI (induced by moderate Closed-Head Impact Model of Engineered Rotational Acceleration device) group. Briefly, mice were anesthetized with isoflurane (5% for 2.5 min followed by 2.5% maintenance during injury induction), had a helmet placed over the head, and were placed in a holder prior to a 2.1-joule impact. Serial visual acuity (VA) assessments, using the Virtual Optometry System, and DBSI scans were performed in both groups of mice. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) and histological analysis of optic nerves was also performed after RESULTS: VA of the TBI mice showed unilateral or bilateral impairment. DBSI of the optic nerves exhibited bilateral involvement. IHC results of the optic nerves revealed axonal loss, myelin injury, axonal injury, and increased cellularity in the optic nerves of the TBI mice. Increased DBSI axon volume, decreased DBSI λ CONCLUSION: DBSI provides an imaging modality capable of detecting subclinical changes of indirect TON in TBI mice

Randomized trial of calcipotriol combined with 5-fluorouracil for skin cancer precursor immunotherapy

BACKGROUND. Actinic keratosis is a precursor to cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma. Long treatment durations and severe side effects have limited the efficacy of current actinic keratosis treatments. Thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) is an epithelium-derived cytokine that induces a robust antitumor immunity in barrier-defective skin. Here, we investigated the efficacy of calcipotriol, a topical TSLP inducer, in combination with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) as an immunotherapy for actinic keratosis. METHODS. The mechanism of calcipotriol action against skin carcinogenesis was examined in genetically engineered mouse models. The efficacy and safety of 0.005% calcipotriol ointment combined with 5% 5-FU cream were compared with Vaseline plus 5-FU for the field treatment of actinic keratosis in a randomized, double-blind clinical trial involving 131 participants. The assigned treatment was self-applied to the entirety of the qualified anatomical sites (face, scalp, and upper extremities) twice daily for 4 consecutive days. The percentage of reduction in the number of actinic keratoses (primary outcome), local skin reactions, and immune activation parameters were assessed. RESULTS. Calcipotriol suppressed skin cancer development in mice in a TSLP-dependent manner. Four-day application of calcipotriol plus 5-FU versus Vaseline plus 5-FU led to an 87.8% versus 26.3% mean reduction in the number of actinic keratoses in participants (P < 0.0001). Importantly, calcipotriol plus 5-FU treatment induced TSLP, HLA class II, and natural killer cell group 2D (NKG2D) ligand expression in the lesional keratinocytes associated with a marked CD4(+) T cell infiltration, which peaked on days 10–11 after treatment, without pain, crusting, or ulceration. CONCLUSION. Our findings demonstrate the synergistic effects of calcipotriol and 5-FU treatment in optimally activating a CD4(+) T cell–mediated immunity against actinic keratoses and, potentially, cancers of the skin and other organs. TRIAL REGISTRATION. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02019355. FUNDING. Not applicable (investigator-initiated clinical trial)

Diffusion basis spectrum imaging detects axonal loss after transient dexamethasone treatment in optic neuritis mice

Optic neuritis is a frequent first symptom of multiple sclerosis (MS) for which corticosteroids are a widely employed treatment option. The Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial (ONTT) reported that corticosteroid treatment does not improve long-term visual acuity, although the evolution of underlying pathologies is unclear. In this study, we employed non-invasive diffusion basis spectrum imaging (DBSI)-derived fiber volume to quantify 11% axonal loss 2 months after corticosteroid treatment (vs. baseline) in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis mouse optic nerves affected by optic neuritis. Longitudinal DBSI was performed at baseline (before immunization), after a 2-week corticosteroid treatment period, and 1 and 2 months after treatment, followed by histological validation of neuropathology. Pathological metrics employed to assess the optic nerve revealed axonal protection and anti-inflammatory effects of dexamethasone treatment that were transient. Two months after treatment, axonal injury and loss were indistinguishable between PBS- and dexamethasone-treated optic nerves, similar to results of the human ONTT. Our findings in mice further support that corticosteroid treatment alone is not sufficient to prevent eventual axonal loss in ON, and strongly support the potential of DBSI as a

Hormonal responses to cholinergic input are different in humans with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus

<div><p>Peripheral muscarinic acetylcholine receptors regulate insulin and glucagon release in rodents but their importance for similar roles in humans is unclear. Bethanechol, an acetylcholine analogue that does not cross the blood-brain barrier, was used to examine the role of peripheral muscarinic signaling on glucose homeostasis in humans with normal glucose tolerance (NGT; n = 10), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT; n = 11), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM; n = 9). Subjects received four liquid meal tolerance tests, each with a different dose of oral bethanechol (0, 50, 100, or 150 mg) given 60 min before a meal containing acetaminophen. Plasma pancreatic polypeptide (PP), glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP), glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), glucose, glucagon, C-peptide, and acetaminophen concentrations were measured. Insulin secretion rates (ISRs) were calculated from C-peptide levels. Acetaminophen and PP concentrations were surrogate markers for gastric emptying and cholinergic input to islets. The 150 mg dose of bethanechol increased the PP response 2-fold only in the IGT group, amplified GLP-1 release in the IGT and T2DM groups, and augmented the GIP response only in the NGT group. However, bethanechol did not alter ISRs or plasma glucose, glucagon, or acetaminophen concentrations in any group. Prior studies showed infusion of xenin-25, an intestinal peptide, delays gastric emptying and reduces GLP-1 release but not ISRs when normalized to plasma glucose levels. Analysis of archived plasma samples from this study showed xenin-25 amplified postprandial PP responses ~4-fold in subjects with NGT, IGT, and T2DM. Thus, increasing postprandial cholinergic input to islets augments insulin secretion in mice but not humans.</p><p><b><i>Trial Registration</i>:</b> ClinicalTrials.gov <a href="https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01434901?term=NCT01434901&rank=1" target="_blank">NCT01434901</a></p></div

Diffusion basis spectrum imaging measures anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective effects of fingolimod on murine optic neuritis

OBJECTIVE: To prospectively determine whether diffusion basis spectrum imaging (DBSI) detects, differentiates and quantitates coexisting inflammation, demyelination, axonal injury and axon loss in mice with optic neuritis (ON) due to experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), and to determine if DBSI accurately measures effects of fingolimod on underlying pathology. METHODS: EAE was induced in 7-week-old C57BL/6 female mice. Visual acuity (VA) was assessed daily to detect onset of ON after which daily oral-treatment with either fingolimod (1 mg/kg) or saline was given for ten weeks. In vivo DBSI scans of optic nerves were performed at baseline, 2-, 6- and 10-weeks post treatment. DBSI-derived metrics including restricted isotropic diffusion tensor fraction (putatively reflecting cellularity), non-restricted isotropic diffusion tensor fraction (putatively reflecting vasogenic edema), DBSI-derived axonal volume, axial diffusivity, λ RESULTS: Optic nerves of fingolimod-treated mice exhibited significantly better (p \u3c 0.05) VA than saline-treated group at each time point. During ten-week of treatment, DBSI-derived non-restricted and restricted-isotropic-diffusion-tensor fractions, and axonal volumes were not significantly different (p \u3e 0.05) from the baseline values in fingolimod-treated mice. Transient DBSI-λ CONCLUSION: DBSI was used to assess changes of the underlying optic nerve pathologies in EAE mice with ON, exhibiting great potential as a noninvasive outcome measure for monitoring disease progression and therapeutic efficacy for MS