Anemos : development of a next generation wind power forecasting system for the large-scale integration of onshore & offshore wind farms

International audienceThis paper presents the objectives and the research work carried out in the frame of the ANEMOS project on short-term wind power forecasting. The aim of the project is to develop accurate models that substantially outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting, exploiting both statistical and physical modeling approaches. The project focus on prediction horizons up to 48 hours ahead and investigates predictability of wind for higher horizons up to 7 days ahead useful i.e. for maintenance scheduling. Emphasis is given on the integration of highresolution meteorological forecasts. For the offshore case, marine meteorology is considered as well as information by satellite-radar images. An integrated software platform, ‘ANEMOS', is developed to host the various models. This system will be installed by several utilities for on-line operation at onshore and offshore wind farms for prediction at a local, regional and national scale. The applications include different terrain types and wind climates, on- and offshore cases, and interconnected or island grids. The on-line operation by the utilities will allow validation of the models and an analysis of the value of wind prediction for a competitive integration of wind energy in the developing liberalized electricity markets in the EU

Next generation short term forecasting of Wind Power - Results of the ANEMOS Project

International audienc

Modellierung des Leistungsverhaltens von Windparks Abschlussbericht

Ziel des Projektes ist die messtechnische Erfassung und Modellierung der windrichtungs- und windgeschwindigkeitsabhaengigen Abschattungseffekte in Windparks. Dabei wurden sowohl die Leistungscharakteristik (10-Minuten-Mittelwerte) als auch die kurzzeitigen Fluktuationen (Einsekundenmittelwerte) der Parkausgangsleistung untersucht. Dazu wurden sowohl Messungen der Windgeschwindigkeit in der Nachlaufstroemung einer einzelnen Turbine als auch Messungen der Ausgangsleistung der einzelnen Turbinen von Windparks durchgefuehrt. Auf Basis dieser Messungen wurden vorhandene Modelle der Nachlaufstroemung ueberprueft und verbessert bzw. angepasst werden. Die Modelle wurden in einem Computerprogramm implementiert, das zur Berechnung der Reduktion des Energieertrags durch Abschattungseffekte in Windparks geeignet ist. Auf Basis dieser Modelle wurde ein Verfahren und ein Computerprogramm zur Optimierung der Aufstellungsgeometrie von Windparks entwickelt. Dieses Optimierungsverfahren ist in der Lage, als zusaetzliche Randbedingung die Einhaltung von akustischen Grenzwerten in der Umgebung des optimierten Parks zu gewaehrleisten. (orig.)Aim of this project is measuring and modelling wake effects in wind farms depending on wind speed and direction. The characteristics of the mean power output (10-minute averages) was investigated as well as short time power fluctuations (1-second averages). Measurements of wind speed in the wake flow of a single turbine as well as measurements of power output of wind farms were performed. On the basis of these measurements, already known wake models were tested, tuned, and improved. On the base of these models, a computer program for calculating the power output reduction due to wake effects was implemented. On base of these calculations, a methods and computer software was developed in order to do an optimization of the geometrical arrangement of wind farms. This optimization method is able to take into account limitations for the acoustic impact in the surroundings of the optimized wind farm. (orig.)SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: F96B425+a / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekBundesministerium fuer Bildung, Wissenschaft, Forschung und Technologie, Bonn (Germany)DEGerman

Next generation forecasting tools for the optimal management of wind generation

International audienceThis paper presents the objectives and an overview of the results obtained in the frame of the ANEMOS project on short-term wind power forecasting. The aim of the project is to develop accurate models that substantially outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting, exploiting both statistical and physical modeling approaches. The project focus on prediction horizons up to 48 hours ahead and investigates predictability of wind for higher horizons up to 7 days ahead useful i.e. for maintenance scheduling. Emphasis is given on the integration of high-resolution meteorological forecasts. Specific modules are also developed for on-line uncertainty and prediction risk estimation. An integrated software platform, 'ANEMOS', is developed to host the various models. This system is installed by several end-users for on-line operation at onshore and offshore wind farms for prediction at a local, regional and national scale. The applications include different terrain types and wind climates, on- and offshore cases, and interconnected or island grids

The Anemos Project : Next Generation forecasting of Wind power

International audienceThis paper presents the objectives and the research work carried out in the frame of the ANEMOS project on short-term wind power forecasting. The aim of the project is to develop accurate models that substantially outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting, exploiting both statistical and physical modeling approaches. The project focus on prediction horizons up to 48 hours ahead and investigates predictability of wind for higher horizons up to 7 days ahead useful i.e. for maintenance scheduling. Emphasis is given on the integration of high-resolution meteorological forecasts. For the offshore case, marine meteorology is considered as well as information by satellite-radar images. Specific modules are also developed for on-line uncertainty and prediction risk estimation. An integrated software platform, 'ANEMOS', is developed to host the various models. This system will be installed by several end-users for on-line operation at onshore and offshore wind farms for prediction at a local, regional and national scale. The applications include different terrain types and wind climates, on- and offshore cases, and interconnected or island grids. The on-line operation by the utilities will allow validation of the models and an analysis of the value of wind prediction for a competitive integration of wind energy in the developing liberalized electricity markets