Contrasts of Relative Advantage Maximisation with Random Utility Maximisation and Regret Minimisation

This paper discusses the theoretical properties and the empirical application of an improved version of the ‘relative advantage maximising’ (RAM) model. This model shares several desirable features of a set of models based on random regret minimisation (RRM), such as parsimony and choice set dependence. Although model fit differences are small, a preliminary comparison shows that the RAM model empirically outperforms the standard random utility maximisation (RUM) model, the RRM model, and a hybrid RUM–RRM model in all eight data sets analysed. The paper concludes with a discussion of the marginal willingness to pay (WTP) measures derived from the RAM model.Australian Research Counci

Embedding Decision Heuristics in Discrete Choice Models: A Review

Contrary to the usual assumption of fixed, well-defined preferences, it is increasingly evident that individuals are likely to approach a choice task using rules and decision heuristics that are dependent on the choice environment. More specifically, heuristics that are defined by the local choice context, such as the gains or losses of an attribute value relative to the other attributes, seem to be consistently employed. Recent empirical findings also demonstrate that previous choices and previously encountered choice tasks shown to respondents can affect the current choice outcome, indicating a form of inter-dependence across choice sets. This paper is primarily focused on reviewing how heuristics have been modelled in stated choice data. The paper begins with a review of the heuristics that may be relevant for coping with choice task complexity and then proceeds to discuss some modelling approaches. Next, relational heuristics, such as prospect theory, random regret minimisation and extremeness aversion (compromise effect) are discussed. These are heuristics which operate within the local choice set. Another major class of heuristics reviewed in this paper pertains to ordering effects and more generally, on past outcomes and past attribute levels of the alternatives.Australian Research Council Progra

Examining estimator bias and efficiency for pseudo panel data: A Monte Carlo simulation approach

Pseudo panel data have been increasingly applied in empirical research as an alternative approach to a longitudinal analysis when genuine panel data are unavailable. However, conventional techniques are typically used to estimate pseudo panel data models without careful consideration to some unique properties of pseudo panel data. Ignoring properties such as time-varying cohort effects, a small number of constructed cohorts, large between-group variance, and trade-offs between cohort sizes and number of cohorts potentially lead to estimation bias or inefficiency not observed in genuine panel data. This paper presents a Monte Carlo experiment with scenarios that are designed to generate, under conditions of limited observations, various data possessing pseudo panel data characteristics, and evaluates the performances of various estimators using the simulation results. The main research findings are that the large between-group variation of the exogenous variable and the variance of fixed group effects in pseudo panel data are the primary causes of estimation bias and inefficiency. Other factors including the cohort size and potential non-spherical errors have a smaller impact on the estimators’ performances. An empirical application using Sydney Household Travel Survey data is also presented to illustrate the simulation findings

Improving bus service reliability: The Singapore experience

In February 2014, Singapore embarked on a 2-year trial of a Bus Service Reliability Framework (BSRF) to improve en-route bus regularity and reduce instances of bus bunching and prolonged waiting times. Based on London's Quality Incentive Contract, the Singapore model also imposes penalties or provides incentives to operators for increases/reductions of Excess Wait Time (EWT) beyond a certain route-specific baseline. Drawing on insights derived from research on performance-based contracts, this paper describes some key considerations surrounding this particular innovation in Singapore's overall bus regulatory framework. We also discuss an important advancement in our understanding of how bus users value reliability improvements through estimates obtained from stated preference data. At the same time, early indications from the trial have been encouraging

Workshop 3 report: Infrastructure, services and urban development

Workshop 3 concentrated its discussion on critical factors for strategic transport planning, implementation, and service provision in the post-pandemic era. The workshop report makes a strong case for social and environmental considerations to be included in transport and land use planning. Bottom-up and top-down processes must converge, and policies that put focus on equity in transport planning are needed. In this also lies a recognition of the benefits of transport services for all and, in turn, the importance of threshold services that are inclusive. In the discussion on service improvement and wider benefits, there is a need to recognise the value of transport and distribution of resources. This is linked to better use of existing resources and working with methods that capture the value of transport improvements. Drawing on the discussion on service improvement, it is also recognised that there is a need to further develop objective decision-making tools that assess the outcomes of planned processes. This includes taking into account a wider social perspective in existing methods and further develop the existing tools traditionally used in transport planning