Rationalization and Harmonization of Seed Policies and Regulations in Eastern and Central Africa: Effecting Policy Change through Private Public Partnerships

Cereal grains are important staple foods in Africa but yields are still too low at 1.5 tons per ha for maize while compared with a global average of 4.5 tons per ha. This can be partly attributed to limited development of commercial seed markets, low use of improved seeds, small and highly fragmented seed markets. Many released varieties are not widely disseminated due to closed national markets dominated by a few international companies and parastatals, and restrictive laws, regulations and policies. Transactions costs within and across national boundaries are high because of differing arrangements across countries. Establishment of common regulatory structures is expected to reduce transactions costs and promote increased trade and hence use of improved seeds. This paper describes the process, results, experiences and lessons learned in developing and operationalizing a seed trade harmonization system in eastern and central Africa. It is clear that the public-private partnerships can play a pivotal role in catalyzing, facilitating and supporting the establishment, development and strengthening of national and regional seed trade. By building partnerships and wide participation, the project was able to apply lessons learned from older to newer countries. The technical, political and legislative processes in the policy-change-cycle are equally important and optimal outcomes must be based on trade-offs between technical issues and interests of the stakeholders.Seeds, harmonization, public-private partnerships, eastern Africa, Crop Production/Industries, Q18, Q19,

Striving for Higher Impacts in Agricultural Research and Development

Over the years, substantial investments in agricultural research have been made in sub-Saharan Africa. The few studies on research investments show impressive returns that are comparable to those achieved in developed countries. However, problems such as recurrent hunger, poverty, food insecurity and natural resource degradation continue to plague the region. Agricultural development arena is changing rapidly toward non-linear innovation systems of complex actor networks and multiple sources of innovations characterized by dynamic and iterative learning processes that constantly inform, renew and advance the state of the systems. Most actors and institutions are not linked effectively often from imaginary boundaries created by prescribed mandates and parochial interests. While more investments in research and development are required for the region, it is becoming increasingly difficult to justify them in the wake of competing needs in the face of shrinking national budgets. The few impact assessments that have been carried out in the region have been incidental and not linked to the research planning cycle implying that lessons from previous research efforts are not used when planning for subsequent research and development efforts. We are proposing impact orientation to track impact to the attainment of institutional and overall development goals. This calls in part for impact assessment to be made an integral part of planning, monitoring and evaluation along with appreciation of the impact chain and actors involved in the innovation process to demonstrate relevance to development goals and thus justify funding.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Strategies for adapting to climate change in rural Sub-Saharan Africa

The ten ASARECA member countries (Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda) have adopted, or are planning to adopt, a range of climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture (see Table 1 for a summary). Of the 26 strategies mentioned, only two are common to all 10 countries, while five more are common to five or more. The strategies common to all member countries include the development and promotion of drought-tolerant and early-maturing crop species and exploitation of new and renewable energy sources. Most countries have areas that are classifiable as arid or semiarid, hence the need to develop drought-tolerant and early-maturing crops. Strangely, only one country recognizes the conservation of genetic resources as an important strategy although this is also potentially important for dealing with drought. Biomass energy resources account for more than 70 percent of total energy consumption in ASARECA member countries. To mitigate the potential adverse effects of biomass energy depletion, ASARECA countries plan to harness new and renewable energy sources, including solar power, wind power, hydro and geothermal sources, and biofuels. Eight of the 10 countries cite the promotion of rainwater harvesting as an important adaptation strategy, either small scale with small check dams or large scale with large dam projects. The five measures that are common to more than five countries are (a) the conservation and restoration of vegetative cover in degraded and mountain areas; (b) reduction of overall livestock numbers through sale or slaughter; (c) cross-breeding, zero-grazing, and acquisition of smaller livestock (for example, sheep or goats); (d) adoption of traditional methods of natural forest conservation and food use; and (e) community-based management programs for forests, rangelands, and national parks. The promotion of environmentally friendly investments and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects that can be funded through carbon trading is a feature of only one country. Three examples of strategies that warrant greater region wide collaboration are the conservation of genetic materials, development and promotion of drought-tolerant species, and soil conservation. To date, the national adaptation policies of only three countries have indicated that they carry out these strategies.Adaptation, ASARECA, Climate change, NAPA, Natural resource management, PRSP,

Agriculture, Income Risks and Rural Poverty Dynamics: Strategies of Smallholder Producers in Kenya

Poverty in Kenya has been on the increase over the last decade. It is estimated that 56% of the total population live in absolute poverty. Most of the poor reside in rural areas where agriculture is the main livelihood activity. Majority of Kenya's farmers are smallholders. They account for 75% of the total agricultural output and about 70% of marketed agricultural produce. The fate of smallholder agriculture in this country is therefore central to poverty reduction. A collapse in output and incomes from smallholder agriculture is likely to have damaging welfare effects and retard pro-poor economic growth. Smallholders often operate in a risky environment, which affects the level and variability of household resource endowments and income. The importance of risk analysis in smallholder production systems arises from the fact that strategies to help farmers raise their productivity and income require an understanding of how risk affects their production decisions. Using cross-sectional input-output data from 240 randomly selected households from Vihiga and Kilifi districts covering the 2003/4 agricultural year, and time series data on yields, this study investigates how risk affects farmers' production choices in the crop-livestock systems. Further, it explores the possibility of improving production and income on these smallholder farms. Linear programming and MOTAD are used in analysis. Results indicate there is potential to improve production and income on these smallholder farms through a change in the enterprise mix. The farm plans are sensitive to risk, with trade-offs occurring between higher risk and returns.Smallholder farms, Income risk, Rural Poverty, Linear Programming, Kenya, Farm Management, C61, D13, L23, Q18,

Effect of Equity Risk Factors on the Return of Stock Portfolios of Companies Listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya Between 2009 and 2014

Investors and investment advisors strive to make the best investment decisions when forming a stock portfolio. However, at the Nairobi securities exchange in Kenya, most investors are not optimizing the return of their stock portfolios because they do not consider relevant factors when investing in stocks. In particular, they do not consider equity risk factors when forming stock portfolios. In the United States of America, Dimensional fund advisors have shown that if active investors tilt their stock portfolio towards equity risk factors such as value risk and size risk, the return of the stock portfolio formed is better than that of the market portfolio. Capital asset pricing model has been the generally accepted model for explaining the relationship between risk and stock portfolio return variations. However, the restrictive assumption of employing the market risk as the only source of risk in capital asset pricing model led to the introduction of multiple factors models that attempt to identify other sources of risks that are disregarded by the capital asset pricing model. Available empirical evidence suggest that much of the variation in stock returns related to size risk, value risk, momentum risk, profitability risk and investment risk is left unexplained by Capital asset pricing model. This motivated the researcher to examine a model that adds the five risk factors to capital asset pricing model. As a result, a six factors model was developed and used to determine the ability of the combined six equity risk factors in explaining the variation of stock returns at the Nairobi securities exchange in Kenya. The general objective of this study was to establish the effect of equity risk factors on the return of stock portfolios of companies listed at the Nairobi securities exchange in Kenya between 2009 and 2014. The study adopted the explanatory research design and the target population was 45 companies that were listed at the Nairobi securities exchange by January 2009 (after excluding companies that were not trading consistently and those that were delisted). A census of 45 companies was used to construct stock portfolios between 2009 and 2014. Data was analyzed using a modified Fama and French (1996) multivariate time series regression methodology. The study found out that market risk, size risk, value risk and investment risk have a significant effect while profitability risk and momentum risk have a weak positive effect on the return of stock portfolios at the Nairobi securities exchange. This study recommends a framework for enhancing factor investing strategies, introducing exchange traded funds index and reviewing policies on price determination of listed stocks. The study availed to investors, investment advisors and academia the equity risks that are worth considering when constructing a stock portfolio at the Nairobi securities exchange for optimal stock returns. Keywords: Stock Portfolio, Equity risk factors, Stock Portfolio Return, Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF SOIL FERTILITY MANAGEMENT USING INTEGRATED HOUSEHOLD AND GIS DATA FROM SMALLHOLDER KENYAN FARMS

Although soil fertility is recognized as a primary constraint to agricultural production in developing countries, use of fertilizer in Sub-Saharan Africa is declining. Smallholder farmers still rely heavily on livestock manure for soil fertility management. To explore the determinants of soil fertility management practices, including both the use of cattle manure and inorganic fertilizer, data are used from a sample of 3,330 geo-referenced farm households across Central and Western Kenya. A bivariate probit model is applied to jointly examine the use of the two technologies. Particular attention is given to measures of location related to market access and agroclimate, which in the adoption literature have typically been addressed using crude proxies. To avoid such proxies, GIS-derived variables are integrated into the household decision model. Their use also allows the spatial prediction of uptake based on parameter estimates. The results show clearly the derived-demand nature of soil fertility services, based on markets for farm outputs. They also illustrate that supply of manure for soil fertility amendments is conditioned by demand for livestock products, especially milk. The integration of GIS-derived variables is shown to better estimate the effects of location than the usual measures employed, and offers scope to wider use in technology adoption research.spatial analysis, soil fertility, market access, technology adoption., Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Q12, Q16,

Farmer Perception of Technology and its Impact on Technology Uptake: The Case of Fodder Legume in Central Kenya Highlands.

Technology adoption by farmers is crucial to increasing agricultural productivity hence meeting food and nutrition challenges in Africa. Economists investigating consumer demand have accumulated considerable evidence showing that consumers generally have subjective preferences for product attributes. However, when investigating adoption of new agricultural technologies, economists have lagged behind in analysing how farmers' (the consumer of agricultural technologies) subjective perceptions of technology characteristics affect their adoption decisions. Focusing on farmer perceptions of technologies may provide a better understanding of technology adoption since they deal with the technologies and probably perceive technologies differently from researchers and extension agents. The objective of this paper is to investigate farmers' perception of technology and its impact on adoption using a case study of legume forages in central Kenya highlands. Data from a random sample of 131 farm households in four districts in central Kenya was used. Using participatory techniques, four most important fodder legume attributes to farmers in their adoption decision were identified. These were then used in conjoint analysis. An ordered probit model was estimated to assess relative importance of each attribute to the farmer. A tobit model was also estimated to show the effect of farmers' perception of calliandra and desmodium on probability and intensity of adoption. Results showed that dry season tolerance and economy on land are most important characteristics of fodder legumes to the farmers. It was also found that Calliandra and desmodium were more relevant to the farmers in the area than other fodders. Farmers' perception of the two fodders had a significant impact on their adoption. Consequently, it was recommended that before introducing a technology in an area, it is necessary that the farmers' perception of the technology be analysed Conjoint analysis, ordered probit and tobit estimates, fodder legume adoption.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Strategies for adapting to climate change in rural Sub-Saharan Africa

Given limited resources, adaptation strategies must target those populations most vulnerable to global change and equip those unable to adapt—generally the poorest—with the tools and incentives that will enable them to do so. ASARECA has recently carried out a study to enhance the understanding of climate change in the 10 ASARECA member countries. This report profiles the available climate change–related datasets and their accessibility and procurement details in the 10 ASARECA member countries. The report additionally assesses the incorporation of climate change adaptation strategies in national development plans and discusses each country’s position in the current UNFCCC negotiations. The study was conducted using a combination of extensive literature reviews and field visits to all 10 ASARECA member countries: Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. The report is organized in four sections. The first provides a description of the available climate change–related databases, along with details about their sources and accessibility in each of the 10 ASARECA member countries. Section 3 is a review of the status of the incorporation of climate change adaptation strategies in national development plans, while section 4 discusses the countries’ positions in the current UNFCCC negotiations. Finally, section 5 offers concluding remarks and suggestions for a way forward. In addition to the study report, separate files of existing climate change–related datasets are provided in EXCEL format

Application of various count models: Sahiwal demand from Naivasha

Sahiwal bulls have been bred at the National Sahiwal Stud (NSS) in Naivasha since the late 1960s. The breed is credited for its ability to withstand conditions which other introduced cattle breeds find it difficult, especially those in the ASALs. The sahiwal will produce milk with little supplementation and can let down milk without calf on foot. Farmers interested in acquiring this germplasm to upgrade their local cattle do so either through use of AI with semen from CAIS or alternatively purchase live breeding stock directly from the NSS or other breeding farms. Over the years, this demand for the latter has been recorded through written requests to the farm management for bulls. Recently however, the NSS management has raised concern over its inability to service all the requests for breeding stock. A total of 802 letters were isolated from archived records which represented requests for a total of 5,531 animals from the NSS yielding a rough estimate of 6-7 animals per request where majority of the requests (42%) were for 1-2 animals and an additional 20% are composed of requests for between 3-5 animals. Graphical examination of count of requests for breeding stock for 1971-2007 shows a possible decline in these requests, which is at variance with what management is experiencing. We hypothesize that since the mobile phone boom starting in the early 2000s, demand may have been expressed differently rather than in written form. It would also be expected that as milk prices improve, farmers would increase their demand for breeding stock and conversely, as prices for the animals rise, their demand would decline. Rainfall improves pasture availability and we also hypothesize that this way, farmers are encouraged to increase their stock. To explore these issues more systematically, we fit these monthly count data to Poisson Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (PEWMA), Poisson Autoregressive PAR(p) and poisson models with phone use, milk prices and rainfall as explanatory variables. These models are implemented in R and we use data for the period November 1990 to December 2007. In these models, we use real prices and the price of milk is used in place of the price for breeding animals. We do this for two reasons (i) to avoid multicollinearity since there is a high (+0.98) correlation between sahiwal prices and the price of milk and (ii) we believe that since breeding animals are acquired by farmers to upgrade their local cattle to produce more milk, the price of milk provides more information about the decision to invest in a breeding animal. We begin by examining the ACF plot to identify the presence of dynamics in the data. In addition, zero inflation is negligible and the zero inflation versions of these models are not necessary. The chi-square statistic used to compare the PAR(1) and PAR(2) is not large enough to reject the PAR(1) over the latter. Further, results show that phone use and prices led to reduced number written of requests for sahiwal animals while the contribution of rainfall is positive. The PAR(p) short run multipliers for phone use are computed as -0.77 and -0.67 for the PAR(1) and PAR(2) respectively while the long run multipliers are -0.95 and -0.91. We conclude that phone use may have changed the way demand for breeding animals is expressed