Assessing the Impact of Builtup Areas on Development of Urban Heat Island in Lahore, Pakistan

The aim of present study is to evaluate and assess the impact of built-up areas on development of the urbanheat island (UHI).The study mainly focused on Lahore, which is one of the mega cities of Pakistan. In terms ofpopulation size, Lahore is the second largest city of Pakistan with 11.13 million inhabitants. The geospatial techniques(Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System) along with statistical applications were applied to find out theLand Cover Land Uses changes and consequent development of builtup areas over the period of 2000 and 2015. Tostudy the UHI, the meteorological data of each 30 minutes for 36 days starting from 30th June 2015 to 4th August 2015were collected through direct on site observation by using digital weather station. The results of UHI were crosschecked by obtaining land surface temperature by using thermal infrared (TIR) band 6 of the Landsat-7 TM. The resultsshow that the LCLU and built environment have direct impact on development of UHI. The areas where there wasmore vegetation cover had less temperature while in urban areas, the temperature was measured higher. Over the periodof 36 days, the average UHI remained 5.5°C and the highest intensity of UHI was observed as 8.3°C thus augmentedresearch rationale. The study suggests establishment of a thick network of automatic weather stations in Lahore togauge the urban heat island intensity and to plant indigenous trees on vacant swaths and develop urban forest tomitigate city’s rising temperature

Connection between the South and East Asian Monsoons: Comparing Summer Monsoon Rainfall of Pakistan and South Korea

This study investigates the tele-connection of the southeast Asian monsoon systems by comparing the summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall variability between Pakistan and south Korea. The daily data sets (19812014) of rainfall of Pakistan and south Korea are utilized to explore the possible link. The data products of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) were also used for the understanding of the large-scale atmospheric environments. The patterns of summer monsoon rainfall on a daily basis between Pakistan and south Korea followed to each other throughout the year. Sub-seasonal differences of the summer monsoon revealed that July is the wettest month in both countries. The large-scale atmospheric environment of higher geopotential height revealed that the Tibetan high and the western north Pacific subtropical high are showing positive anomalies during positive phases over south Asia and east Asia, respectively. The anomalies of zonal wind are negative during positive phase and adverse in the negative phase between 20-40oN. The reduced westerly is interpreted as the seasonal variation and moving of jet streams from the east Asian route. The Tibetan high, northwestern Pacific subtropical high and the east Asian jet stream have reliable and sufficient linkage between the Pakistan and south Korea summer monsoon system

Seasonal and Regional Variations in Rainfall Distribution Over the Punjab-Pakistan

The purpose of present study is to investigate district and division wise annual rainfall variations over theprovince of Punjab, which is the largest in terms of population size as well important contributor in agricultural producein Pakistan. The results revealed that the rainfall trend has shifted from upper and lower Punjab towards the south,west, north and east respectively. The statistical analysis has inferred an overall increasing trend for the period 1990 to2000 and a decreasing trend during period 2001 to 2010 in Punjab province. The Z test value differences in the averagerainfall for each district level meteorological station have detected three increasing and two decreasing trends duringsummers of 1981-2015.The data revealed a significant changed seasonal trend observed in Murree and Sialkot(northern Punjab), Faisalabad and Lahore (central Punjab). Particularly, the changes have been observed in the southPunjab and over the central Punjab, while the same rainfall variations have shown a southward shift. The trend of therainfall had shifted in the Faisalabad division with the significant positive trend. In the Central Punjab, the positivetrend has also been found in all the districts. In the lower Punjab, Multan, Dera Ghazi Khan districts has shown anincreasing trend of rainfall. The findings are significant in changing agro-climatic zones in the Punjab and consequentshifting patterns of agriculture therefore can have net impact on the food security situation in the Punjab-Pakistan

Spatial Distribution and Trends of Fertility Differentials in Toba Tek Singh District, Punjab-Pakistan

This study examines socio-economic and demographic factors as fertility differentials and draws conclusions upon data collected from some selected rural and urban localities of Toba Tek Sing-Punjab. The analysis carried to examine change in fertility trends and preferences in relation to children ever born to currently married women. The ideal family size from the both localities is 3.98 which, is still reckoned high as compared to the (NGRP) National Growth Rate in Pakistan which is 3.80. The dependent variable is reproductive preference measured by a single indicator- ideal no. of children and gender in both urban and rural localities as same study was conducted by National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) in 1990-91 and 2006-07. In Pakistan number of demographic surveys has revealed that woman of reproductive age generally prefer more children than their own preferred family size. The aim of this study is to contribute into the existing literature on the geographical patterns of fertility differentials in a district of the Punjab. This will help planners to formulate more effective fertility related policies and programmes in the country. This is also a continuum of DHS conducted in mid 1980s to elaborate fertility patterns among married couples. The goal is to dig deeper into the relationship between education and fertility has been a central focus within demography and related social sciences. Higher education is associated with higher age at first birth and lower number of children discussed the implication of findings in the context of policy framework to enhance the public awareness about the small family in context with high quality life. Higher fertility in a country like Pakistan is rooted in cultural believes about children and number, pre-natal control measures should be targeted more at women attitude to large family. This is to provide policy makers with an understanding of the potential demand for fertility control and help in formulating policies to reduce fertility and improve socio-economic climate of the district

Spatial Distribution and Trends of Fertility Differentials in Toba Tek Singh District, Punjab-Pakistan

This study examines socio-economic and demographic factors as fertility differentials and draws conclusions upon data collected from some selected rural and urban localities of Toba Tek Sing-Punjab. The analysis carried to examine change in fertility trends and preferences in relation to children ever born to currently married women. The ideal family size from the both localities is 3.98 which, is still reckoned high as compared to the (NGRP) National Growth Rate in Pakistan which is 3.80. The dependent variable is reproductive preference measured by a single indicator- ideal no. of children and gender in both urban and rural localities as same study was conducted by National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) in 1990-91 and 2006-07. In Pakistan number of demographic surveys has revealed that woman of reproductive age generally prefer more children than their own preferred family size. The aim of this study is to contribute into the existing literature on the geographical patterns of fertility differentials in a district of the Punjab. This will help planners to formulate more effective fertility related policies and programmes in the country. This is also a continuum of DHS conducted in mid 1980s to elaborate fertility patterns among married couples. The goal is to dig deeper into the relationship between education and fertility has been a central focus within demography and related social sciences. Higher education is associated with higher age at first birth and lower number of children discussed the implication of findings in the context of policy framework to enhance the public awareness about the small family in context with high quality life. Higher fertility in a country like Pakistan is rooted in cultural believes about children and number, pre-natal control measures should be targeted more at women attitude to large family. This is to provide policy makers with an understanding of the potential demand for fertility control and help in formulating policies to reduce fertility and improve socio-economic climate of the district

Assessing spatio-temporal mapping and monitoring of climatic variability using SPEI and RF machine learning models

Droughts may inflict significant damage to agricultural and water supplies, resulting in substantial financial losses as well as the death of people and livestock. This study intends to anticipate droughts by studying the changes of an acceptable index using appropriate climatic factors. This study was divided into three phases, first being the determination of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration (SPEI) index for the Cholistan, Punjab, Pakistan area based on a dataset spanning 1980 to 2020. The indices are calculated at different monthly intervals which could to predict short-term periods for the Cholistan in Pakistan, we selected two distinctive time periods of one month (SPEI–1) and three months (SPEI–3). The second phase involved dividing the data into three sample sizes, which were used for training data from 1980 to 2010, testing data from 2011 to 2015 and validation data from 2016 to 2020. The utilization of the random forest (RF) algorithm to train and evaluate the data using a variety of climate variables e.g. potential evapotranspiration, rainfall, vapor pressure cloud cover, and mean, minimum and maximum, temperature. The final phase was to analyze the performance of the model based on statistical metrics and drought classes. Based on these considerations, statistical measures, such as the Coefficient of Determination (R2) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) approach, were used to evaluate the performance of the test group throughout the testing period. The model's performance revealed the satisfactory results with R2 values of 0.80 and 0.78, for SPEI–1 and SPEI–3 situations, respectively. Following the data analysis, it was discovered that the validation period had a receiving operating curve and area under the Curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.87 for the SPEI–1 case and 0.85 for the SPEI–3 case. In this context, the results indicate that the SPEI may be useful as a prediction tool for drought prediction and the performances the RF model was suitable for both timescales. However, a more rigorous analysis with a larger dataset or a combination of datasets from different areas might be more beneficial for generalization over more extended time periods provide additional insights