Attitudinal Change, Cohort Replacement, and the Liberalization of Attitudes about Same-sex Relationships, 1973–2018

Americans’ attitudes toward same-sex relationships have liberalized considerably over the last 40 years. We examine how the demographic processes generating social change in attitudes toward same-sex relationships changed over time. Using data from the 1973 to 2018 General Social Survey and decomposition techniques, we estimate the relative contributions of intracohort change and cohort replacement to overall social change for three different periods. We examine (1) the period prior to the rapid increase in attitude liberalization toward same-sex marriage rights (1973–1991), (2) the period of contentious debate about same-sex marriage and lesbian and gay rights (1991–2002), and (3) the period of legislative and judicial liberalization at the state and federal levels (2002–2018). We find that both intracohort and intercohort change played positive and significant roles in the liberalization of attitudes toward same-sex relationships in the postlegalization period, but that individual change was more important than population turnover over this period

Decomposing Trends in Child Obesity

We unravel the absolute level and relative prominence of two demographic processes that are relevant for childhood obesity, and that will ultimately determine the long-term course and pace of change in child obesity rates. We leverage data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to decompose change in child obesity from 1971 to 2012. We partition change into that attributable to (1) healthier, more nutritionally and economically advantaged cohorts in the population being replaced by cohorts of children who are less advantaged (between-cohort change), and (2) the health habits, nutrition, and social and economic circumstances of all cohorts of children worsening over time (within-cohort change). The rise in obesity among children aged 2 to 19 years is solely due to intracohort change driven by variation in food security composition and in the diet of the population over time. Child obesity in the population rose largely because of individual increases in weight status that are broadly distributed across age and cohort groups. Smaller but significant cohort replacement effects slightly attenuated these intracohort change effects over the study period, leading to a more gradual increase in obesity. Our results provide some reasons for optimism. Given that population estimates of child obesity rose because the typical member of all cohorts became heavier over time at all stages of the early life course, successful policy and health interventions that focus on changing health habits across all ages and generations have the potential to quickly slow or reverse the upward trend in child obesity

Decomposing Trends in Adult Body Mass Index, Obesity, and Morbid Obesity, 1971-2012

Trends in adult obesity have been used to motivate key public health policies in the United States. While these analyses provide important insights into the broad historical contours of the obesity epidemic in the U.S., they shed less light on the proximate mechanisms that have generated these changes and that will ultimately determine the long-term course and pace of change in obesity rates. We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), Glenn Firebaugh\u27s linear decomposition technique, and Kitagawa\u27s algebraic decomposition method to decompose change in body mass index (BMI), obesity, and morbid obesity from 1971 through 2012 for adults aged 20+. We partitioned change into that attributable to (1) older, fitter cohorts in the population being replaced by newer, less fit cohorts (intercohort change), and (2) cohort members becoming less fit over time (intracohort change). We found that the rise in mean BMI and rates of obesity and morbid obesity was primarily a consequence of intracohort change driven by variation in the demographic and socioeconomic composition and in the diet of the population over time. Obesity and BMI in the population rose largely because of individual increases in weight status that were broadly distributed across age and cohort groups. Cohort replacement reinforced and amplified intracohort change over the study period, leading to rapid increases in mean BMI and obesity. Because intracohort change has been the central force in the increase in BMI and obesity, successful social, dietary, medical, or policy interventions have the potential to quickly slow or reverse the upward trend in weight status. Our results also imply that policy efforts and health interventions should be broadly targeted at all age groups and birth cohorts because increases in obesity have been widely distributed across all ages and generations

Lost Toy? Monsters Under the Bed? Contributions of Temperament and Family Factors to Early Internalizing Problems in Boys and Girls

This study was designed to examine the contribution of multiple risk factors to early internalizing problems and to investigate whether family and ecological context moderated the association between child temperament and internalizing outcomes. A sample of 1,202 mothers of 2- and 3-year-old children completed a survey of child social-emotional functioning, family environment, and violence exposure. Child temperament, maternal affective symptoms, and family expressiveness were associated with child anxiety and depression problems. Violence exposure was related only to child anxiety. When maternal affective symptoms were elevated, inhibited girls but not boys were rated as more anxious and youngsters with heightened negative emotionality were rated as more depressed. Family expressiveness moderated the association between inhibited temperament and anxiety symptoms

Measuring Economic Disadvantage During Childhood: A Group-Based Modeling Approach

Recent research suggest that child well-being and subsequent status attainment are influenced not only by the overall magnitude of exposure to family economic disadvantage during childhood, but also by the age of exposure and significant changes in family economic circumstances. Unfortunately, traditional measures of children's economic deprivation, such as permanent and transitory income, persistent or cumulative poverty, and the number and length of poverty spells, fail to differentiate between exposure to disadvantage at different stages in childhood and largely ignore how family economic circumstances are changing over time. In this paper, the authors propose a new method for assessing economic disadvantage during childhood that captures both children's overall levels of exposure to economic disadvantage and their patterns of exposure. This new method, which takes advantage of recent advances in finite mixture modeling, uses a longitudinal latent class model to classify children into a limited number of groups with similar histories of exposure to family economic disadvantage. Using this new methodology, group membership can be related to both family background characteristics and achievement in childhood and early adulthood, making it possible both to assess how family characteristics affect patterns of exposure to disadvantage during childhood and directly test alternative theories about the effect of different patterns of exposure on achievement. In this paper, the relationship between background factors, such as race, parental education, and family structure, and group membership is investigated, as is the association between group membership and achievement in early adulthood. The use of this technique is demonstrated using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID)

Association Between Age and Obesity Over Time

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A decline in the prevalence of obesity among 2- to 5-year-olds in the United States was recently reported. This decline may be due to changes in the population composition of children over time or may be a consequence of changes in how strongly individual- or family-level factors are linked to childhood obesity. We applied regression decomposition techniques to identify the sources of the decline. METHODS: We used data from the 2003–2004 and 2011–2012 NHANES restricted to 2- to 5-year-old children and Blinder-Oaxaca regression decomposition techniques to partition the decline in early childhood obesity into 2 components: changes resulting from (1) how demographic, economic, and health characteristics of children have changed over this period (ie, changes in population composition) and (2) changes in how these demographic, economic, and health factors are associated with obesity (ie, changes in associations). RESULTS: The obesity rate was lower in 2011–2012 than it was in 2003–2004 mainly because obesity was strongly and positively associated with age in 2003–2004 (ie, older children were more likely to be obese than younger children) but not in 2011–2012 (ie, older children were not more likely to be obese than younger children). CONCLUSIONS: If the weaker association between age and obesity we observed for this cohort of 2- to 5-year-old children in 2011–2012 persists for subsequent cohorts of young children, the obesity rate for young children will remain at or near the lower rate seen in 2011–2012