An Investigation of Firm Heterogeneity in the Constraints to Development and Growth in Pakistan

This study considers the importance of firm characteristics in explaining the degree of business constraints facing Pakistani firms in the Investment Climate Survey. We quantify how firms with differing characteristics experience particular problems. After controlling for other factors, the largest differences in responses to business constraints occur among firms that vary by manufacturing industry, and among firms operating under different ownership structures or selling in different markets. In some cases, firm size and firm location also play an important role. The age of the firm generally does not lead to significant differences. These results account for the heterogeneity of firms better than others, and may be important for policy-makers to develop more specific approaches to fostering the investment climate.Pakistan, Investment Climate, Business Constraints

An Investigation of Firm Heterogeneity in the Constraints to Development and Growth in Pakistan

This study considers the importance of firm characteristics in explaining the degree of business constraints facing Pakistani firms in the Investment Climate Survey. We quantify how firms with differing characteristics experience particular problems. After controlling for other factors, the largest differences in responses to business constraints occur among firms that vary by manufacturing industry, and among firms operating under different ownership structures or selling in different markets. In some cases, firm size and firm location also play an important role. The age of the firm generally does not lead to significant differences. These results account for the heterogeneity of firms better than others, and may be important for policy-makers to develop more specific approaches to fostering the investment climate

An International Perspective on Safe Withdrawal Rates from Retirement Savings: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule?

経済学 / EconomicsNumerous studies about sustainable withdrawal rates from retirement savings have been published, but they are overwhelmingly based on the same underlying data for US asset returns since 1926. From an international perspective, the United States enjoyed a particularly favorable climate for asset returns in the twentieth century, and to the extent that the US may experience mean reversion in the current century, sustainable withdrawal rates may be overstated in many studies. This paper explores the issue of sustainable withdrawal rates using 109 years of financial market data for 17 developed market countries in an attempt to provide a broader perspective about sustainable withdrawal rates, as financial planners and their clients must consider whether they will be comfortable basing decisions using the impressive and perhaps anomalous numbers found in the past US data. From an international perspective, a 4 percent real withdrawal rate is surprisingly risky. Even with some overly optimistic assumptions, it would have only provided “safety” in 4 of the 17 countries. A fixed asset allocation split evenly between stocks and bonds would have failed in all 17 countries.JEL Classification Codes: G11, G15, G17, C1

The Portfolio Size Effect and Lifecycle Asset Allocation Funds: A Different Perspective

経済学 / EconomicsBasu and Drew (in the JPM Spring 2009 issue) argue that lifecycle asset allocation strategies are counterproductive to the retirement savings goals of typical individual investors. Because of the portfolio size effect, most portfolio growth will occur in the years just before retirement when lifecycle funds have already switched to a more conservative asset allocation. In this article, we use the same methodology as Basu and Drew, but we do not share their conclusion that the portfolio size effect soundly overturns the justification for the lifecycle asset allocation strategy. While strategies that maintain a large allocation to stocks do provide many attractive features, we aim to demonstrate that a case for supporting a lifecycle strategy can still be made with modest assumptions for risk aversion and diminishing utility from wealth. Our differing conclusion results from four factors: (1) we compare the interactions between different strategies; (2) we consider a more realistic example for the lifecycle asset allocation strategy; (3) we examine the results for 17 countries; and (4) we provide an expected utility framework to compare different strategies. We find that with a very reasonable degree of risk aversion, investors have reason to prefer the lifecycle strategy in spite of the portfolio size effect.JEL Classification Codes: D14, D81, G11, G2

Lifecycle Funds and Wealth Accumulation for Retirement: Evidence for a More Conservative Asset Allocation as Retirement Approaches

経済学 / EconomicsA line of recent studies cast doubt on the efficacy of the lifecycle investment strategy, which calls for switching into a more conservative investment portfolio as retirement approaches, as a suitable way to provide for the retirement needs of workers with defined-contribution pensions. After comparing simulation outcomes for lifecycle and fixed asset allocation strategies, we determine that the lifecycle strategy can be justified even in a framework including only financial wealth. We find that investors with very reasonable amounts of risk aversion may prefer the lifecycle approach, despite the tendency for aggressive fixed allocation strategies to produce larger expected wealth.JEL Classification Codes: D14, D81, G11, G2

An Optimizing Framework for the Glide Paths of Lifecycle Asset Allocation Funds

経済学 / EconomicsIn choosing a glide path strategy for asset allocation over their working lives, retirement savers face a tradeoff between the higher expected wealth provided by strategies that maintain or increase equity holdings over time, against the greater potential security offered from shifting into more conservative assets. We quantify this tradeoff with an expected utility framework for our simulated distribution of target date wealth accumulations under a variety of lifecycle, fixed, and contrarian glide path strategies. We find justification for the lifecycle strategy for savers with very reasonable amounts of risk aversion, and we also provide guidance about utility-maximizing glide paths.JEL Classification Codes: D14, D81, G11, G2

Low Returns and Optimal Retirement Savings

Lifetime financial outcomes relate closely to the sequence of investment returns earned over the lifecycle. Higher return assumptions allow individuals to save at a lower rate, withdraw at a higher rate, retire with a lower wealth accumulation, and enjoy a higher standard of living throughout their lifetimes. Often analysis of this topic is based on the investment performance found in historical market returns. However, at the present bond yields are historically lower and equity prices are quite high, suggesting that individuals will likely experience lower returns in the future. Increases in life expectancy, especially among higher-income workers who must also rely more heavily on their private savings to smooth spending, further increases the cost of funding retirement income today. The implications are higher savings rates, lower withdrawal rates, the need for a larger nest egg at retirement, and a lower lifetime standard of living. We demonstrate this using a basic life cycle framework, and provide a more complex analysis of optimal savings rates that incorporates Social Security, tax rates before and after retirement, actual retirement spending patterns, and differences in expected longevity by income. We find that lower-income workers will need to save about 50 percent more if low rates of return persist in the future, and higher-income workers will need to save nearly twice as much in a low return environment compared to the optimal savings using historical returns

Ageing, Poverty, and the Role of a Social Pension in Vietnam

経済学 / EconomicsBy using the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey in 2004, this paper seeks to quantify the potential role and impacts of a social pension scheme for reducing elderly poverty in Vietnam. We simulate how the poverty rate, poverty gap, and poverty severity of the elderly would have been changed in the counterfactual situation that such a scheme had been introduced to Vietnam in the past. We consider a number of categorical targeting groups of elderly people along with various transfer parameters to assess the impacts of the scheme on social welfare. We find that, depending on the characteristics of the social pension, there would be beneficial poverty reductions, but also large leakages to the non-poor people. For a variety of measures, our results suggest that targeting the elderly in rural areas might be the most effective use of limited resources. Also, simulations for different budgetary constraints show that, even with limited budgeting, a social pension scheme would significantly reduce poverty incidence for the elderly. We also find that for a given program cost, combining lower benefits with lower eligibility requirements is more effective at reducing poverty than providing larger benefits to a more limited group of recipients.JEL Classification Codes: H55, I32, I38Published as: Giang, L. T., and W. D. Pfau. “Aging, Poverty, and the Role of Social Pensions in Vietnam,” Development and Change. Vol. 40, No. 2 (March 2009), p. 333-360