The US stock market leads the Federal funds rate and Treasury bond yields

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including and especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen at key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Levels and patterns of organochlorine pesticides in agricultural soils in an area of extensive historical cotton cultivation in Henan province, China

Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) have attracted widespread concern because of their environmental persistence and toxicity. The historical influence of different agricultural land use types on soil concentrations of OCP residues was investigated by collecting a total of 52 surface soil samples from long-term cotton fields and fields with other crops in Lvdian township, Henan province, eastern central China. The concentration, composition, and possible sources of 16 OCPs were determined and a health risk assessment of these soils was conducted. Hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), heptachlor, chlordane, and dichloro diphenyl trichloroethane plus its main metabolites (DDTs) were the most frequently detected OCPs with concentrations of 2.9-56.4 ng g(-1), 4.3-14.0 ng g(-1), 18.0-1254.4 ng g(-1), and below detection limit (BDL) -206.1 ng g(-1), respectively. Analysis of variance of p,p-DDE shows significant (P < 0.05) differences while other OCPs show no significant differences between historical cotton fields and fields containing other crops. Compositional analysis suggests that the HCH is derived mainly from the use of lindane and that there are recent inputs. Analysis of variance and compositional analysis indicate that the p,p-DDE in surface soil from long-term cotton fields is derived mainly from the aerobic biodegradation of historical residues. The sum of carcinogenic risk values of OCPs for soil samples were found to be 1.58 x 10(-6), posing a low cancer risk to the inhabitants of the region studied

Long-standing Small-scale Reconnection Processes at Saturn Revealed by Cassini

The internal mass source from the icy moon Enceladus in Saturn’s rapidly rotating magnetosphere drives electromagnetic dynamics in multiple spatial and temporal scales. The distribution and circulation of the internal plasma and associated energy are thus crucial in understanding Saturn’s magnetospheric environment. Magnetic reconnection is one of the key processes in driving plasma and energy transport in the magnetosphere, and also a fundamental plasma process in energizing charged particles. Recent works suggested that reconnection driven by Saturn’s rapid rotation might appear as a chain of microscale structures, named drizzle-like reconnection. The drizzle-like reconnection could exist not only in the nightside magnetodisk, but also in the dayside magnetodisk. Here, using in situ measurements from the Cassini spacecraft, we report multiple reconnection sites that were successively detected during a time interval longer than one rotation period. The time separation between two adjacently detected reconnection sites can be much less than one rotation period, implying that the reconnection processes are likely small-scale, or frequently repetitive. The spatial distribution of the identified long-standing multiple small reconnection site sequences shows no significant preference on local times. We propose that the small reconnection sites discussed in this Letter are rotationally driven and rotate with the magnetosphere. Since the reconnection process on Saturn can be long-durational, the rotational regime can cause these smallscale reconnection sites to spread to all local times, resulting in global release of energy and mass from the magnetosphere

Sources and photochemistry of volatile organic compounds in the remote atmosphere of western China : results from the Mt. Waliguan Observatory

Author name used in this publication: Xue, L. K.Author name used in this publication: Wang, T.Author name used in this publication: Guo, H.2013-2014 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journalVersion of RecordPublishe

Introduction to the thematic series “Coupling of the magnetosphere–ionosphere system”

Abstract This thematic series contains 4 papers mostly presented at the 2016 AOGS meeting in Beijing. The four papers investigate four key regions in the magnetosphere–ionosphere coupling process: mid-tail magnetosphere, near-Earth magnetosphere, inner magnetosphere, and the polar ground region. Guo et al. (Geosci Lett 4:18, 2017) study the current system in reconnection region using 2.5D particle-in-cell simulations. Yao et al. (Geosci Lett 4:8, 2017) use conjugate measurements from ground auroral imagers and in situ THEMIS spacecraft to reveal the mechanism for the wave-like auroral structures prior to substorm onset. Zhang et al. (Geosci Lett 4:20, 2017) investigate the profiles of resonance zone and resonant frequency in the Landau resonance between radiation belt electrons and magnetosonic waves and between protons and cyclotron waves. Rae et al. (Geosci Lett 4:23, 2017) determine the relative timing between sudden increases in amplitude, or onsets, of different ultra-low-frequency wave bands during substorms

First Measurements of eta_c Decaying into K^+K^-2(pi^+pi^-) and 3(pi^+pi^-)

The decays of eta_c to K^+K^-2(pi^+pi^-) and 3(pi^+pi^-) are observed for the first time using a sample of 5.8X10^7 J/\psi events collected by the BESII detector. The product branching fractions are determined to be B(J/\psi-->gamma eta_c)*B(eta_c-->K^+K^-pi^+pi^-pi^+pi^-)=(1.21+-0.32+- 0.23)X10^{-4}$,B(J/\psi-->gamma eta_c)*B(eta_c-->K^{*0}\bar{K}^{*0}pi^+pi^-)= (1.29+-0.43+-0.32)X10^{-4}$, and (J/\psi-->gamma eta_c)* B(eta_c-->pi^+pi^-pi^+pi^-pi^+pi^-)= (2.59+-0.32+-0.48)X10^{-4}. The upper limit for eta_c-->phi pi^+pi^-pi^+pi^- is also obtained as B(J/\psi-->gamma eta_c)*B(eta_c--> phi pi^+pi^-pi^+pi^-)< 6.03 X10^{-5} at the 90% confidence level.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure

Resonances in J/ψ→ϕπ+π−J/\psi \to \phi \pi ^+\pi ^- and ϕK+K−\phi K^+K^-

A partial wave analysis is presented of $J/\psi \to \phi \pi ^+\pi ^-$ and $\phi K^+K^-$ from a sample of 58M $J/\psi$ events in the BES II detector. The $f_0(980)$ is observed clearly in both sets of data, and parameters of the Flatt\' e formula are determined accurately: $M = 965 \pm 8$ (stat) $\pm 6$ (syst) MeV/c$^2$, $g_1 = 165 \pm 10 \pm 15$ MeV/c$^2$, $g_2/g_1 = 4.21 \pm 0.25 \pm 0.21$. The $\phi \pi \pi$ data also exhibit a strong $\pi \pi$ peak centred at $M = 1335$ MeV/c$^2$. It may be fitted with $f_2(1270)$ and a dominant $0^+$ signal made from $f_0(1370)$ interfering with a smaller $f_0(1500)$ component. There is evidence that the $f_0(1370)$ signal is resonant, from interference with $f_2(1270)$. There is also a state in $\pi \pi$ with $M = 1790 ^{+40}_{-30}$ MeV/c$^2$ and $\Gamma = 270 ^{+60}_{-30}$ MeV/c$^2$; spin 0 is preferred over spin 2. This state, $f_0(1790)$, is distinct from $f_0(1710)$. The $\phi K\bar K$ data contain a strong peak due to $f_2'(1525)$. A shoulder on its upper side may be fitted by interference between $f_0(1500)$ and $f_0(1710)$.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. Submitted to Phys. Lett.

Measurement of the Branching Fraction of J/psi --> pi+ pi- pi0

Using 58 million J/psi and 14 million psi' decays obtained by the BESII experiment, the branching fraction of J/psi --> pi+ pi- pi0 is determined. The result is (2.10+/-0.12)X10^{-2}, which is significantly higher than previous measurements.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, RevTex

Study of psi(2S) decays to X J/psi

Using J/psi -> mu^+ mu^- decays from a sample of approximately 4 million psi(2S) events collected with the BESI detector, the branching fractions of psi(2S) -> eta J/psi, pi^0 pi^0 J/psi, and anything J/psi normalized to that of psi(2S) -> pi^+ pi^- J/psi are measured. The results are B(psi(2S) -> eta J/psi)/B(psi(2S) -> pi^+ pi^- J/psi) = 0.098 \pm 0.005 \pm 0.010, B(psi(2S) -> pi^0 pi^0 J/psi)/B(psi(2S) -> pi^+ pi^- J/psi) = 0.570 \pm 0.009 \pm 0.026, and B(psi(2S) -> anything J/psi)/B(psi(2S) -> pi^+ pi^- J/psi) = 1.867 \pm 0.026 \pm 0.055.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figure

First observation of psi(2S)-->K_S K_L

The decay psi(2S)-->K_S K_L is observed for the first time using psi(2S) data collected with the Beijing Spectrometer (BESII) at the Beijing Electron Positron Collider (BEPC); the branching ratio is determined to be B(psi(2S)-->K_S K_L) = (5.24\pm 0.47 \pm 0.48)\times 10^{-5}. Compared with J/psi-->K_S K_L, the psi(2S) branching ratio is enhanced relative to the prediction of the perturbative QCD ``12%'' rule. The result, together with the branching ratios of psi(2S) decays to other pseudoscalar meson pairs (\pi^+\pi^- and K^+K^-), is used to investigate the relative phase between the three-gluon and the one-photon annihilation amplitudes of psi(2S) decays.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let