Half‐Cauchy and Power Cauchy Distributions: Ordinary Differential Equations

In this chapter, homogenous ordinary differential equations (ODES) of different orders were obtained for the probability density function, quantile function, survival function inverse survival function, hazard function and reversed hazard functions of half‐Cauchy and power Cauchy distributions. This is possible since the aforementioned probability functions are differentiable. Differentiation and modified product rule were used to obtain the required ordinary differential equations, whose solutions are the respective probability functions. The different conditions necessary for the existence of the ODEs were obtained and it is almost in consistent with the support that defined the various probability functions considered. The parameters that defined each distribution greatly affect the nature of the ODEs obtained. This method provides new ways of classifying and approximating other probability distributions apart from half‐Cauchy and power Cauchy distributions considered in this chapter. In addition, the result of the quantile function can be compared with quantile approximation using the quantile mechanics

Natural History of Tuberculosis: Duration and Fatality of Untreated Pulmonary Tuberculosis in HIV Negative Patients: A Systematic Review

Background The prognosis, specifically the case fatality and duration, of untreated tuberculosis is important as many patients are not correctly diagnosed and therefore receive inadequate or no treatment. Furthermore, duration and case fatality of tuberculosis are key parameters in interpreting epidemiological data. Methodology and Principal Findings To estimate the duration and case fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients we reviewed studies from the pre-chemotherapy era. Untreated smear-positive tuberculosis among HIV negative individuals has a 10-year case fatality variously reported between 53% and 86%, with a weighted mean of 70%. Ten-year case fatality of culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis was nowhere reported directly but can be indirectly estimated to be approximately 20%. The duration of tuberculosis from onset to cure or death is approximately 3 years and appears to be similar for smear-positive and smear-negative tuberculosis. Conclusions Current models of untreated tuberculosis that assume a total duration of 2 years until self-cure or death underestimate the duration of disease by about one year, but their case fatality estimates of 70% for smear-positive and 20% for culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis appear to be satisfactory

Early efforts in modeling the incubation period of infectious diseases with an acute course of illness

The incubation period of infectious diseases, the time from infection with a microorganism to onset of disease, is directly relevant to prevention and control. Since explicit models of the incubation period enhance our understanding of the spread of disease, previous classic studies were revisited, focusing on the modeling methods employed and paying particular attention to relatively unknown historical efforts. The earliest study on the incubation period of pandemic influenza was published in 1919, providing estimates of the incubation period of Spanish flu using the daily incidence on ships departing from several ports in Australia. Although the study explicitly dealt with an unknown time of exposure, the assumed periods of exposure, which had an equal probability of infection, were too long, and thus, likely resulted in slight underestimates of the incubation period