ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice developed using the (ASCOT-BPLA) trial data.

A number of risk scores already exist to predict cardiovascular (CV) events. However, scores developed with data collected some time ago might not accurately predict the CV risk of contemporary hypertensive patients that benefit from more modern treatments and management. Using data from the randomised clinical trial Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA, with 15 955 hypertensive patients without previous CV disease receiving contemporary preventive CV management, we developed a new risk score predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction or stroke). Cox proportional hazard models were used to develop a risk equation from baseline predictors. The final risk model (ASCORE) included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, previous blood pressure (BP) treatment, systolic BP, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting glucose and creatinine baseline variables. A simplified model (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables was also derived. Both models showed very good internal validity. User-friendly integer score tables are reported for both models. Applying the latest Framingham risk score to our data significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year risk of the composite CV outcome. We conclude that risk scores derived using older databases (such as Framingham) may overestimate the CV risk of patients receiving current BP treatments; therefore, 'updated' risk scores are needed for current patients

Deferasirox (Exjade®) significantly improves cardiac T2* in heavily iron-overloaded patients with β-thalassemia major

Noninvasive measurement of tissue iron levels can be assessed using T2* magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to identify and monitor patients with iron overload. This study monitored cardiac siderosis using T2* MRI in a cohort of 19 heavily iron-overloaded patients with β-thalassemia major receiving iron chelation therapy with deferasirox over an 18-month period. Overall, deferasirox therapy significantly improved mean ± standard deviation cardiac T2* from a baseline of 17.2 ± 10.8 to 21.5 ± 12.8 ms (+25.0%; P = 0.02). A concomitant reduction in median serum ferritin from a baseline of 5,497 to 4,235 ng/mL (−23.0%; P = 0.001), and mean liver iron concentration from 24.2 ± 9.0 to 17.6 ± 12.9 mg Fe/g dry weight (−27.1%; P = 0.01) was also seen. Improvements were seen in patients with various degrees of cardiac siderosis, including those patients with a baseline cardiac T2* of <10 ms, indicative of high cardiac iron burden. These findings therefore support previous observations that deferasirox is effective in the removal of myocardial iron with concomitant reduction in total body iron

Distal junctional kyphosis in patients with Scheuermann’s disease: a retrospective radiographic analysis

Purpose To investigate the relationship between preoperative and postoperative spinopelvic alignment and occurrence of DJK/DJF. Study design/setting This was a retrospective observational cohort study. Patient sample The sample included 40 patients who underwent posterior correction of SK from January 2006 to December 2014. Outcome measures Correlation analysis between the preoperative and postoperative spinopelvic alignment parameters and development of DJK over the course of the study period were studied. Methods Whole spine X-rays obtained before surgery, 3 months after surgery and at the latest follow-up were analyzed. The following parameters were measured: maximum of thoracic kyphosis (TK), lumbar lordosis (LL), sagittal vertical axis (SVA), pelvic incidence (PI), pelvic tilt (PT), sacral slope (SS), lower instrumented vertebra (LIV) and LIV plumb line. Development of DJK was considered as the primary end point of the study. The patient population was split into a control and DJK group, with 34 patients and 6 patients, respectively. Statistic analysis was performed using unpaired t test for normal contribution and Mann–Whitney test for skew distributed values. The significance level was set to 0.05. Results DJK occurred in 15% (n = 6) over the study period. There was a significantly lower postoperative TK for the group with DJK (42.4 ± 5.3 vs 49.8 ± 6.7, p = 0.015). LIV plumb line showed higher negative values in the DJK group (−43.6 ± 25.1 vs −2.2 ± 17.8, p = 0.0435). Furthermore, postoperative LL changes were lower for the DJK group (33.84 ± 13.86% vs 31.77 ± 14.05, p < 0.0001.) The age of the patients who developed DJK was also significantly lower than that of the control group (16.8 ± 1.7 vs 19.6 ± 4.9, p = 0.0024.) Conclusions SK patients who developed DJK appeared to have a significantly higher degree of TK correction and more negative LIV plumb line. In addition, there may be a higher risk for DJK in patients undergoing corrective surgery at a younger age

Comparing the immune response to a novel intranasal nanoparticle PLGA vaccine and a commercial BPI3V vaccine in dairy calves

peer-reviewedBackground There is a need to improve vaccination against respiratory pathogens in calves by stimulation of local immunity at the site of pathogen entry at an early stage in life. Ideally such a vaccine preparation would not be inhibited by the maternally derived antibodies. Additionally, localized immune response at the site of infection is also crucial to control infection at the site of entry of virus. The present study investigated the response to an intranasal bovine parainfluenza 3 virus (BPI3V) antigen preparation encapsulated in PLGA (poly dl-lactic-co-glycolide) nanoparticles in the presence of pre-existing anti-BPI3V antibodies in young calves and comparing it to a commercially available BPI3V respiratory vaccine. Results There was a significant (P < 0.05) increase in BPI3V-specific IgA in the nasal mucus of the BPI3V nanoparticle vaccine group alone. Following administration of the nanoparticle vaccine an early immune response was induced that continued to grow until the end of study and was not observed in the other treatment groups. Virus specific serum IgG response to both the nanoparticle vaccine and commercial live attenuated vaccine showed a significant (P < 0.05) rise over the period of study. However, the cell mediated immune response observed didn’t show any significant rise in any of the treatment groups. Conclusion Calves administered the intranasal nanoparticle vaccine induced significantly greater mucosal IgA responses, compared to the other treatment groups. This suggests an enhanced, sustained mucosal-based immunological response to the BPI3V nanoparticle vaccine in the face of pre-existing antibodies to BPI3V, which are encouraging and potentially useful characteristics of a candidate vaccine. However, ability of nanoparticle vaccine in eliciting cell mediated immune response needs further investigation. More sustained local mucosal immunity induced by nanoparticle vaccine has obvious potential if it translates into enhanced protective immunity in the face of virus outbreak

Calibration of myocardial T2 and T1 against iron concentration.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of myocardial iron using T2* cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) has been validated and calibrated, and is in clinical use. However, there is very limited data assessing the relaxation parameters T1 and T2 for measurement of human myocardial iron. METHODS: Twelve hearts were examined from transfusion-dependent patients: 11 with end-stage heart failure, either following death (n=7) or cardiac transplantation (n=4), and 1 heart from a patient who died from a stroke with no cardiac iron loading. Ex-vivo R1 and R2 measurements (R1=1/T1 and R2=1/T2) at 1.5 Tesla were compared with myocardial iron concentration measured using inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy. RESULTS: From a single myocardial slice in formalin which was repeatedly examined, a modest decrease in T2 was observed with time, from mean (± SD) 23.7 ± 0.93 ms at baseline (13 days after death and formalin fixation) to 18.5 ± 1.41 ms at day 566 (p<0.001). Raw T2 values were therefore adjusted to correct for this fall over time. Myocardial R2 was correlated with iron concentration [Fe] (R2 0.566, p<0.001), but the correlation was stronger between LnR2 and Ln[Fe] (R2 0.790, p<0.001). The relation was [Fe] = 5081•(T2)-2.22 between T2 (ms) and myocardial iron (mg/g dry weight). Analysis of T1 proved challenging with a dichotomous distribution of T1, with very short T1 (mean 72.3 ± 25.8 ms) that was independent of iron concentration in all hearts stored in formalin for greater than 12 months. In the remaining hearts stored for <10 weeks prior to scanning, LnR1 and iron concentration were correlated but with marked scatter (R2 0.517, p<0.001). A linear relationship was present between T1 and T2 in the hearts stored for a short period (R2 0.657, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Myocardial T2 correlates well with myocardial iron concentration, which raises the possibility that T2 may provide additive information to T2* for patients with myocardial siderosis. However, ex-vivo T1 measurements are less reliable due to the severe chemical effects of formalin on T1 shortening, and therefore T1 calibration may only be practical from in-vivo human studies

Comparison of techniques for handling missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies: a simulation study

Background: There is no consensus on the most appropriate approach to handle missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies. Therefore a simulation study was performed to assess the effects of different missing data techniques on the performance of a prognostic model. Methods: Datasets were generated to resemble the skewed distributions seen in a motivating breast cancer example. Multivariate missing data were imposed on four covariates using four different mechanisms; missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), missing not at random (MNAR) and a combination of all three mechanisms. Five amounts of incomplete cases from 5% to 75% were considered. Complete case analysis (CC), single imputation (SI) and five multiple imputation (MI) techniques available within the R statistical software were investigated: a) data augmentation (DA) approach assuming a multivariate normal distribution, b) DA assuming a general location model, c) regression switching imputation, d) regression switching with predictive mean matching (MICE-PMM) and e) flexible additive imputation models. A Cox proportional hazards model was fitted and appropriate estimates for the regression coefficients and model performance measures were obtained. Results: Performing a CC analysis produced unbiased regression estimates, but inflated standard errors, which affected the significance of the covariates in the model with 25% or more missingness. Using SI, underestimated the variability; resulting in poor coverage even with 10% missingness. Of the MI approaches, applying MICE-PMM produced, in general, the least biased estimates and better coverage for the incomplete covariates and better model performance for all mechanisms. However, this MI approach still produced biased regression coefficient estimates for the incomplete skewed continuous covariates when 50% or more cases had missing data imposed with a MCAR, MAR or combined mechanism. When the missingness depended on the incomplete covariates, i.e. MNAR, estimates were biased with more than 10% incomplete cases for all MI approaches. Conclusion: The results from this simulation study suggest that performing MICE-PMM may be the preferred MI approach provided that less than 50% of the cases have missing data and the missing data are not MNAR

Biopsy-based calibration of T2* magnetic resonance for estimation of liver iron concentration and comparison with R2 Ferriscan.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to standardise non-invasive measurements of liver iron concentrations (LIC) so clear inferences can be drawn about body iron levels that are associated with hepatic and extra-hepatic complications of iron overload. Since the first demonstration of an inverse relationship between biopsy LIC and liver magnetic resonance (MR) using a proof-of-concept T2* sequence, MR technology has advanced dramatically with a shorter minimum echo-time, closer inter-echo spacing and constant repetition time. These important advances allow more accurate calculation of liver T2* especially in patients with high LIC. METHODS: Here, we used an optimised liver T2* sequence calibrated against 50 liver biopsy samples on 25 patients with transfusional haemosiderosis using ordinary least squares linear regression, and assessed the method reproducibility in 96 scans over an LIC range up to 42 mg/g dry weight (dw) using Bland-Altman plots. Using mixed model linear regression we compared the new T2*-LIC with R2-LIC (Ferriscan) on 92 scans in 54 patients with transfusional haemosiderosis and examined method agreement using Bland-Altman approach. RESULTS: Strong linear correlation between ln(T2*) and ln(LIC) led to the calibration equation LIC = 31.94(T2*)-1.014. This yielded LIC values approximately 2.2 times higher than the proof-of-concept T2* method. Comparing this new T2*-LIC with the R2-LIC (Ferriscan) technique in 92 scans, we observed a close relationship between the two methods for values up to 10 mg/g dw, however the method agreement was poor. CONCLUSIONS: New calibration of T2* against liver biopsy estimates LIC in a reproducible way, correcting the proof-of-concept calibration by 2.2 times. Due to poor agreement, both methods should be used separately to diagnose or rule out liver iron overload in patients with increased ferritin

Propagation of an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection in three dimensions

Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most significant drivers of adverse space weather at Earth, but the physics governing their propagation through the heliosphere is not well understood. While stereoscopic imaging of CMEs with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) has provided some insight into their three-dimensional (3D) propagation, the mechanisms governing their evolution remain unclear due to difficulties in reconstructing their true 3D structure. Here we use a new elliptical tie-pointing technique to reconstruct a full CME front in 3D, enabling us to quantify its deflected trajectory from high latitudes along the ecliptic, and measure its increasing angular width and propagation from 2-46 solar radii (approximately 0.2 AU). Beyond 7 solar radii, we show that its motion is determined by an aerodynamic drag in the solar wind and, using our reconstruction as input for a 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulation, we determine an accurate arrival time at the Lagrangian L1 point near Earth.Comment: 5 figures, 2 supplementary movie