Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model

Credible climate predictions require a rational quantification of uncertainty, but full Bayesian calibration requires detailed estimates of prior probability distributions and covariances, which are difficult to obtain in practice. We describe a simplified procedure, termed precalibration, which provides an approximate quantification of uncertainty in climate prediction, and requires only that uncontroversially implausible values of certain inputs and outputs are identified. The method is applied to intermediate-complexity model simulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and confirms the existence of a cliff-edge catastrophe in freshwaterforcing input space. When uncertainty in 14 further parameters is taken into account, an implausible, AMOC-off, region remains as a robust feature of the model dynamics, but its location is found to depend strongly on values of the other parameters

Genomic profiling identifies common HPV-associated chromosomal alterations in squamous cell carcinomas of cervix and head and neck

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is well known that a persistent infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) is causally involved in the development of squamous cell carcinomas of the uterine cervix (CxSCCs) and a subset of SCCs of the head and neck (HNSCCs). The latter differ from hrHPV-negative HNSCCs at the clinical and molecular level.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To determine whether hrHPV-associated SCCs arising from different organs have specific chromosomal alterations in common, we compared genome-wide chromosomal profiles of 10 CxSCCs (all hrHPV-positive) with 12 hrHPV-positive HNSCCs and 30 hrHPV-negative HNSCCs. Potential organ-specific alterations and alterations shared by SCCs in general were investigated as well.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Unsupervised hierarchical clustering resulted in one mainly hrHPV-positive and one mainly hrHPV-negative cluster. Interestingly, loss at 13q and gain at 20q were frequent in HPV-positive carcinomas of both origins, but uncommon in hrHPV-negative HNSCCs, indicating that these alterations are associated with hrHPV-mediated carcinogenesis. Within the group of hrHPV-positive carcinomas, HNSCCs more frequently showed gains of multiple regions at 8q whereas CxSCCs more often showed loss at 17p. Finally, gains at 3q24-29 and losses at 11q22.3-25 were frequent (>50%) in all sample groups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this study hrHPV-specific, organ-specific, and pan-SCC chromosomal alterations were identified. The existence of hrHPV-specific alterations in SCCs of different anatomical origin, suggests that these alterations are crucial for hrHPV-mediated carcinogenesis.</p

Improving P300 spelling rate using language models and predictive spelling

The P300 Speller Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) provides a means of communication for those suffering from advanced neuromuscular diseases such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Recent literature has incorporated language-based modelling, which uses previously chosen characters and the structure of natural language to modify the interface and classifier. Two complementary methods of incorporating language models have previously been independently studied: predictive spelling uses language models to generate suggestions of complete words to allow for the selection of multiple characters simultaneously, and language model-based classifiers have used prior characters to create a prior probability distribution over the characters based on how likely they are to follow. In this study, we propose a combined method which extends a language-based classifier to generate prior probabilities for both individual characters and complete words. In order to gauge the efficiency of this new model, results across 12 healthy subjects were measured. Incorporating predictive spelling increased typing speed using the P300 speller, with an average increase of 15.5% in typing rate across subjects, demonstrating that language models can be effectively utilized to create full word suggestions for predictive spelling. When combining predictive spelling with language model classification, typing speed is significantly improved, resulting in better typing performance