Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation

Overlay of conventional angiographic and en-face OCT images enhances their interpretation

BACKGROUND: Combining characteristic morphological and functional information in one image increases pathophysiologic understanding as well as diagnostic accuracy in most clinical settings. En-face optical coherence tomography (OCT) provides a high resolution, transversal OCT image of the macular area combined with a confocal image of the same area (OCT C-scans). Creating an overlay image of a conventional angiographic image onto an OCT image, using the confocal part to facilitate transformation, combines structural and functional information of the retinal area of interest. This paper describes the construction of such overlay images and their aid in improving the interpretation of OCT C-scans. METHODS: In various patients, en-face OCT C-scans (made with a prototype OCT-Ophthalmoscope (OTI, Canada) in use at the Department of Ophthalmology (Academic Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands)) and conventional fluorescein angiography (FA) were performed. ImagePro, with a custom made plug-in, was used to make an overlay-image. The confocal part of the OCT C-scan was used to spatially transform the FA image onto the OCT C-scan, using the vascular arcades as a reference. To facilitate visualization the transformed angiographic image and the OCT C-scan were combined in an RGB image. RESULTS: The confocal part of the OCT C-scan could easily be fused with angiographic images. Overlay showed a direct correspondence between retinal thickening and FA leakage in Birdshot retinochoroiditis, localized the subretinal neovascular membrane and correlated anatomic and vascular leakage features in myopia, and showed the extent of retinal and pigment epithelial detachment in retinal angiomatous proliferation as FA leakage was subject to blocked fluorescence. The overlay mode provided additional insight not readily available in either mode alone. CONCLUSION: Combining conventional angiographic images and en-face OCT C-scans assists in the interpretation of both imaging modalities. By combining the physiopathological information in the angiograms with the structural information in the OCT scan, zones of leakage can be correlated to structural changes in the retina or pigment epithelium. This strategy could be used in the evaluation and monitoring of patients with complex central macular pathology

The role of chemotherapeutic drugs in the evaluation of breast tumour response to chemotherapy using serial FDG-PET

INTRODUCTION: The aims of this study were to investigate whether drug sequence (docetaxel followed by anthracyclines or the drugs in reverse order) affects changes in the maximal standard uptake volume (SUVmax) on [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) during neoadjuvant chemotherapy in women with locally advanced breast cancer. METHODS: Women were randomly assigned to receive either drug sequence, and FDG-PET scans were taken at baseline, after four cycles and after eight cycles of chemotherapy. Tumour response to chemotherapy was evaluated based on histology from a surgical specimen collected upon completion of chemotherapy. RESULTS: Sixty women were enrolled into the study. Thirty-one received docetaxel followed by anthracyclines (Arm A) and 29 received drugs in the reverse order (Arm B). Most women (83%) had ductal carcinoma and 10 women (17%) had lobular or lobular/ductal carcinoma. All but one tumour were downstaged during therapy. Overall, there was no significant difference in response between the two drug regimens. However, women in Arm B who achieved complete pathological response had mean FDG-PET SUVmax reduction of 87.7% after four cycles, in contrast to those who had no or minor pathological response. These women recorded mean SUVmax reductions of only 27% (P < 0.01). Women in Arm A showed no significant difference in SUVmax response according to pathological response. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and positive and negative predictive values were highest in women in Arm B. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that SUVmax uptake by breast tumours during chemotherapy can be dependent on the drugs used. Care must be taken when interpreting FDG-PET in settings where patients receive varied drug protocols

Planar Tc99m – sestamibi scintimammography should be considered cautiously in the axillary evaluation of breast cancer protocols: Results of an international multicenter trial

BACKGROUND: Lymph node status is the most important prognostic indicator in breast cancer in recently diagnosed primary lesion. As a part of an interregional protocol using scintimammography with Tc99m compounds, the value of planar Tc99m sestamibi scanning for axillary lymph node evaluation is presented. Since there is a wide range of reported values, a standardized protocol of planar imaging was performed. METHODS: One hundred and forty-nine female patients were included prospectively from different regions. Their mean age was 55.1 ± 11.9 years. Histological report was obtained from 2.987 excised lymph nodes from 150 axillas. An early planar chest image was obtained at 10 min in all patients and a delayed one in 95 patients, all images performed with 740–925 MBq dose of Tc99m sestamibi. Blind lecture of all axillary regions was interpreted by 2 independent observers considering any well defined focal area of increased uptake as an involved axilla. Diagnostic values, 95% confidence intervals [CI] and also likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated. RESULTS: Node histology demonstrated tumor involvement in 546 out of 2987 lymph nodes. Sestamibi was positive in 30 axillas (25 true-positive) and negative in 120 (only 55 true-negative). The sensitivity corresponded to 27.8% [CI = 18.9–38.2] and specificity to 91.7% [81.6–97.2]. The positive and negative LR were 3.33 and 0.79, respectively. There was no difference between early and delayed images. Sensitivity was higher in patients with palpable lesions. CONCLUSION: This work confirmed that non tomographic Tc99m sestamibi scintimammography had a very low detection rate for axillary lymph node involvement and it should not be applied for clinical assessment of breast cancer