Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: December 19, 2014

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) fell by 1.33% during November 2014. The sharp decline in the LEI-N, which predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future, suggests that economic growth will slow during the second quarter of 2015. Four of six components of the leading economic indicator weakened during November. For the fourth consecutive month, there was a significant increase in the value of the U.S. Dollar. Such an increase reduces the competiveness of export businesses. There also was an increase in initial unemployment claims during the month. Further, airline passenger counts and building permits for single-family homes declined. Weakness among these key economic figures stands in contrast to the outlook among Nebraska businesses. In particular, respondents to the Survey of Nebraska Business predicted an increase in sales and employment over the next six months

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: May 15, 2015

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 1.99% in April 2015, marking its fourth increase in the last five months. The sharp increase in the LEI-N, which predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future, portends strong economic growth in Nebraska in the second half of 2015. Business expectations are one reason for the positive outlook. Respondents to the monthly Survey of Nebraska Business were very optimistic about sales and employment over the next six months. The business outlook, in fact, was the strongest recorded in the monthly survey, which began in September 2011. A stabilizing U.S. dollar also contributed to the positive outlook. After 8 months of increase, the value of the U.S. dollar fell in April. The rising U.S. dollar had created a significant challenge for Nebraska exporters. Initial claims for unemployment insurance also fell sharply in April, suggesting a strengthening labor market. There was little change in other components of the LEI-N, including building permits for single-family homes, airline passengers counts or manufacturing hours

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: April 17, 2015

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 0.08% in March 2015, marking its fourth consecutive monthly increase. The increase in the LEI-N, which predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future, suggests that growth will be solid in Nebraska in the second half of 2015. Three of six components of the leading economic indicator rose during March. Respondents to the Survey of Nebraska Business were optimistic about sales and especially optimistic about employment over the next six months. There also was a solid increase in building permits in March, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, and a slight increase in airline passenger countx. Among declining components of the indicator, there was a fall in manufacturing hours during March. There also were diminished expectations for export activity. Specifically, a rising value for the U.S. dollar increases international competition for the state’s exporting businesses in agriculture and manufacturing. March was the eighth consecutive month in which the value of the U.S. dollar increased

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: June 17, 2016

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) fell by 0.28% in May 2016. The decline in the LEI-N, which predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future, followed rapid increases during both March and April. Taken together, results suggest that economic growth will be strong in Nebraska during the summer and fall of 2016 before moderating late in the year. Four of the six components of the LEI-N declined during May. There was a decline in manufacturing hours during the month and a slight decline in airline passenger counts. There also was an increase in the value of the dollar, which will pressure export-oritented businesses such as manufacturing and agriculture. Lastly, there was a modest uptick in initial claims for unemployment insurance rose during May

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: November 20, 2015

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 1.06% in October 2015. The increase in the LEI-N, which predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future, followed a decline during September. Taken together, results for the two months suggest that economic growth will be modest in Nebraska at the beginning of 2016. Most components of the LEI-N improved during October. There was an increase in manufacturing hours and airline passenger counts. There also was a drop in initial claims for unemployment insurance and the value of the U.S. dollar. The decline in the value of the dollar will support Nebraska’s export businesses in agriculture and manufacturing. There was just one LEI-N component which worsened during October. Specifically, there was a decline in building permits for single-family homes during the month

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: March 20, 2015

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) was flat in February 2015, rising by just 0.01% during the month. The LEI-N predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future. The flat LEI-N, when combined with solid monthly increases in December 2014 and January 2015, suggest that economic growth in Nebraska will be solid in mid-2015. Three of six components of the leading economic indicator rose during February. Respondents to the Survey of Nebraska Business were optimistic. Respondents predicted a strong increase in employment over the next six months and an increase in sales. There also was a slight increase in building permits and a slight decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance during February, which suggests strength in the labor market. Among declining components, the most important factor was the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar. For the seventh consecutive month, there was a sharp increase in the value of the dollar, which is a significant negative for businesses which export. There also was a decline in airline passenger counts and manufacturing hours during February

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: December 18, 2015

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 0.38% in November 2015. The increase in the LEI-N, which predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future, suggests solid economic growth in Nebraska during the 2nd quarter of 2016. There was a split among components of the LEI-N during November. There was an increase in building permits for single-family homes and airline passenger counts. There also were positive business expectations, with respondents to the Survey of Nebraska Business predicting growth in both sales and employment at their businesses over the next 6 months. However, initial claims for unemployment insurance were up during November. There also was evidence of challenges ahead for Nebraska’s export-oriented sectors. The value of the U.S. dollar resumed its increase in November, which will pressure export-oriented businesses in agriculture and manufacturing. There also was a decline in manufacturing hours during November

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: March 20, 2015

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) was flat in February 2015, rising by just 0.01% during the month. The LEI-N predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future. The flat LEI-N, when combined with solid monthly increases in December 2014 and January 2015, suggest that economic growth in Nebraska will be solid in mid-2015. Three of six components of the leading economic indicator rose during February. Respondents to the Survey of Nebraska Business were optimistic. Respondents predicted a strong increase in employment over the next six months and an increase in sales. There also was a slight increase in building permits and a slight decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance during February, which suggests strength in the labor market. Among declining components, the most important factor was the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar. For the seventh consecutive month, there was a sharp increase in the value of the dollar, which is a significant negative for businesses which export. There also was a decline in airline passenger counts and manufacturing hours during February

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: March 18, 2016

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 0.91% in February 2016. The increase in the LEI-N, which predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future, suggests that economic growth will be solid in Nebraska during the summer of 2016. Five of the six components of the LEI-N improved during February. Business expectations were positive. Respondents to the February Survey of Nebraska Business predicted growth in employment at their businesses over the next 6 months. Initial claims for unemployment insurance also fell during February, in a sign of strength for the labor market. There also was an increase in airline passenger counts and building permits for single-family homes. Finally, for the first time in several months, there was a drop in the value of the U.S. dollar during February. This provides relief to export-oriented businesses in Nebraska. Manufacturing hours was the only declining components of the LEI-N

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: September 18, 2015

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 0.31% in August 2015, for a fifth consecutive monthly increase. The increase in the LEI-N, which predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future, indicates consistent economic growth in Nebraska through the end of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016. The LEI-N rose because of strength in business expectations and the labor market. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply in Nebraska during August, indicating strength in the labor market. Further respondents to the monthly Survey of Nebraska Business were positive about sales and employment growth over the next six months. Among other components of the leading indicator, there was a drop in building permits for single-family homes and a modest decline in manufacturing hours and passenger enplanements. There also was a sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar. A rising dollar discourages growth of agriculture and manufacturing businesses