Average age at death in infancy and infant mortality level: reconsidering the Coale-Demeny formulas at current levels of low mortality

The longterm historical decline in infant mortality has been accompanied by increasing concentration of infant deaths at the earliest stages of infancy. The influence of prenatal and neonatal conditions has become increasingly dominant relative to postnatal conditions as external causes of death such as infectious disease have been diminished. In the mid-1960s Coale and Demeny developed formulas describing the dependency of the average age of death in infancy on the level of infant mortality. Almost at the same time as Coale and Demeny’s analysis, as shown in this paper, in the more developed countries a steady rise in average age of infant death began. This paper demonstrates this phenomenon with several different data sources, including the linked individual birth and infant death datasets available from the US National Center for Health Statistics and the Human Mortality Database. A possible explanation for the increase in average age of death in infancy is proposed, and modifications of the Coale-Demeny formulas for practical application to contemporary low levels of mortality are offered.

Growth and Diversity of the Population of the Soviet Union

The most remarkable feature of the Soviet Union's demography is its ethnic diversity. More than 90 ethnic groups are indigenous to the territory of the Soviet Union. Ethnic Russians composed only 50.8 percent of the population according to preliminary 1989 census results. The article examines official Soviet statistics for the period 1959 to 1989 to illustrate some of the risks in describing Soviet demographic behavior. Is fertility in the Soviet Union high or low? Answer: both. Is the Soviet population growing rapidly or slowly? Answer: both. The changing ethnic composition of the population of the USSR as a whole reflects large differences in growth rates of ethnic groups; the changing composition of the USSR by region also reflects differences in migration by ethnic group. Differences in growth rates are reshaping the ethnic composition of the Soviet labor force. For the USSR as a whole between 1979 and 1989, three-fourths of the net increment to the working ages was contributed by the one-sixth of the population in 1979 that was traditionally Muslim in religion.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/67141/2/10.1177_000271629051000112.pd

Average age at death in infancy and infant mortality level: Reconsidering the Coale-Demeny formulas at current levels of low mortality

Background: The long-term historical decline in infant mortality has been accompanied by increasing concentration of infant deaths at the earliest stages of infancy. In the mid-1960s Coale and Demeny developed formulas describing the dependency of the average age of death in infancy on the level of infant mortality, based on data obtained up to that time. Objective: In the more developed countries a steady rise in average age of infant death began in the mid-1960s. This paper documents this phenomenon and offers alternative formulas for calculation of the average age of death, taking into account the new mortality trends. Methods: Standard statistical methodologies and a specially developed method are applied to the linked individual birth and infant death datasets available from the US National Center for Health Statistics and the initial (raw) numbers of deaths from the Human Mortality Database. Results: It is demonstrated that the trend of decline in the average age of infant death becomes interrupted when the infant mortality rate attains a level around 10 per 1000, and modifications of the Coale-Demeny formulas for practical application to contemporary low levels of mortality are offered. Conclusions: The average age of death in infancy is an important characteristic of infant mortality, although it does not influence the magnitude of life expectancy. That the increase in average age of death in infancy is connected with medical advances is proposed as a possible explanation

Average age at death in infancy and infant mortality level: Reconsidering the Coale-Demeny formulas at current levels of low mortality

Background: The long-term historical decline in infant mortality has been accompanied by increasing concentration of infant deaths at the earliest stages of infancy. In the mid-1960s Coale and Demeny developed formulas describing the dependency of the average age of death in infancy on the level of infant mortality, based on data obtained up to that time. Objective: In the more developed countries a steady rise in average age of infant death began in the mid-1960s. This paper documents this phenomenon and offers alternative formulas for calculation of the average age of death, taking into account the new mortality trends. Methods: Standard statistical methodologies and a specially developed method are applied to the linked individual birth and infant death datasets available from the US National Center for Health Statistics and the initial (raw) numbers of deaths from the Human Mortality Database. Results: It is demonstrated that the trend of decline in the average age of infant death becomes interrupted when the infant mortality rate attains a level around 10 per 1000, and modifications of the Coale-Demeny formulas for practical application to contemporary low levels of mortality are offered. Conclusions: The average age of death in infancy is an important characteristic of infant mortality, although it does not influence the magnitude of life expectancy. That the increase in average age of death in infancy is connected with medical advances is proposed as a possible explanation