Characteristics and development of Belgium’s foreign trade

During the past quarter century, the globalisation of the economy has caused international trade to become remarkably dynamic. Over the same period international trade also experienced fundamental changes : intra-industry trade in manufacturing products has dramatically increased and new markets and competing countries have emerged. Belgium has long been integrated into this global framework, and its economic development and prosperity have been largely based on close trading links with other countries. Its degree of openness is among the highest of the euro area countries, due in particular to intense trade with these countries. Since 1980, Belgium has been relatively successful in maintaining its position in international trade. The trade balance has initially improved and has subsequently remained positive at around 3 p.c. of GDP. Global market shares have remained relatively stable in value terms. However, using harmonized foreign trade statistics, a more detailed analysis of Belgium’s export volume over the period 1995-2002 reveals that Belgium has lost 5.8 p.c. of its market share, while the three neighbouring countries have on average increased their share by 3.8 p.c. This negative result can be attributed in part to an unfavourable export product specialisation, in particular the large share of basic chemicals, metal products and textiles in total trade and the under-representation of machinery and data-processing hardware, electronic and telecommunication equipment.Belgium, Foreign trade, Globalisation, Intra-industry trade, Trade balance, Market share

Rebalancing global demand

The article examines to what extent the recovery of the global economy could gain support from a more balanced growth of global demand than in the past. Despite the gradual recovery of the global economy, it remains highly uncertain when – or even whether – growth can return to the often very vigorous pace prevailing before the crisis, especially as that dynamism was in many countries largely based on macroeconomic distortions which were most clearly apparent in the growing current account surpluses and deficits on the balance of payments, as is evident from our analysis of the figures from 1995 onwards. At the Pittsburgh summit in September 2009, in the Framework for Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth the G20 leaders agreed that deficit countries should support private savings and strive towards fiscal consolidation. They will not only need to modify their spending patterns but will also have to transfer their focus to the export sector. To offset the shortfall in demand from these deficit countries, the surplus countries are called upon to reduce their dependence on exports and tap domestic sources of growth. The authors examine the actual policy implications of this for the US, China and the euro area. Although a number of countries have already adopted a range of policy measures which are a move in the right direction, restoring the balance of global demand remains a major challenge, not least on account of the difficult-to-implement but no less essential structural reforms, or the time required to push those reforms through. It will be no easy task to restore the macroeconomic equilibrium, achieve a broad consensus and create the conditions for strong, sustainable and balanced growth, in line with the G20 aims. The movement towards a new global balance risks becoming a protracted process, with the possibility of a worldwide growth slowdown in the meantime.G20, United States, China, euro area, saving, investment, balance of payments current account

Recent commodity price developments : causes and effects

In the past few years, constant price increases have attracted much attention to commodity markets. The nominal prices of oil and most metals reached record levels, and their real prices reached the highest level in many years. The recent price surge was due mainly to a strong increase in demand for commodities. This can be attributed to the strong economic growth of the past few years and to the integration of a substantial part of the world population into the global economy and international trade. The price increase was also partly the result of supply side developments, such as the scarcity of spare production and refining capacity. This made the oil price sensitive to every event that had a negative influence on the oil supply, such as the recurrent geopolitical tensions. In recent years, economic growth and inflation in the oil-importing countries have been fairly resistant to the sharp increase in commodity prices, largely thanks to the changes in the monetary policy framework in comparison to the seventies, structural changes in the developed countries, the effect of globalisation and the favourable economic environment. Financial markets expect oil prices to remain at high levels in the short- and medium term. Moreover, according to the International Energy Agency and other observers, high oil prices are also expected to persist in the long term. Metal prices are forecast to ease from their current high levels, mainly as a result of supply side flexibility, as extra capacity can be added quite quickly. In view of the major economic impact of oil prices and the increasing concern about the effect of energy consumption on climate change, the government has an important role in the energy debate. Over the last couple of years there have been some initiatives to establish a common European energy and climate policy.commodity markets, energy, metals, oil, OPEC.

End of the crisis in the housing markets ? An international survey

The article examines recent developments in international housing markets and makes an assessment of the current situation. The first section demonstrates that the last upward movement in house prices in advanced economies, that started during the mid-1990s, differed from previous upward phases because of its strength, duration and degree of synchronisation across countries. Low interest rates, financial innovation, relaxed credit conditions and demographic factors stimulated housing demand and led to higher prices and investment. The strongest increases were recorded in the UK, Spain, Ireland and France. Starting around the mid-2000s, housing markets increasingly displayed signs of overheating and the American subprime crisis of 2006 triggered a downward correction in the US housing market. Housing markets elsewhere displayed a similar pattern around the same period. Nevertheless, developments were less synchronised during this downturn than during the upturn, as the fall in house prices seems to be over in some countries while the correction continues in other countries. The degree of over- or undervaluation of recent house prices can be calculated on the basis of some frequently used measures. Taking into account fundamental factors like disposable income, population growth and the very low interest rate level, it appears that current prices in most countries are more or less in line with fundamentals. These simple measures have their limitations, and consequently one should be cautious when interpreting the results. Additionally, several common risk factors (normalisation of interest rates, lower potential growth after the economic crisis, fiscal consolidation) and some country-specific risk factors might hinder a further recovery of housing markets. The recent crisis clearly demonstrated the need for stricter rules and control of the financial sector. Various initiatives have already been taken, and international institutions have also formulated recommendations for housing policy reform and the functioning of residential property and mortgage markets. Subsequently, the European government debt crisis that started in 2010 stimulated initiatives to strengthen economic governance in the European Union. In the new surveillance framework, macroeconomic risks will be monitored more closely and more broadly, and this will include the use of indicators related to the housing sector.house prices, investment in housing, interest rates, financial innovation, demography, valuation, disposable income, United States, United Kingdom, euro area, Belgium

Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe. An index for measuring a country’s potential to benefit from technology spillovers

In the paper, we construct a composite indicator to estimate the potential of four Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) to benefit from productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) in the manufacturing sector. Such transfers of technology are one of the main benefits of FDI for the host country, and should also be one of the main determinants of FDI incentives offered to investing multinationals by governments, but they are difficult to assess ex ante. For our composite index, we use six components to proxy the main channels and determinants of these spillovers. We have tried several weighting and aggregation methods, and we consider our results robust. According to the analysis of our results, between 2003 and 2007 all four countries were able to increase their potential to benefit from such spillovers, although there are large differences between them. The Czech Republic clearly has the most potential to benefit from productivity spillovers, while Poland has the least. The relative positions of Hungary and Slovakia depend to some extent on the exact weighting and aggregation method of the individual components of the index, but the differences are not large. These conclusions have important implication both the investment strategies of multinationals and government FDI policies

Differential Impact of Calcium and Vitamin D on Body Composition Changes in Post-Menopausal Women Following a Restricted Energy Diet and Exercise Program

Vitamin D and calcium supplementation have been posited to improve body composition and different formulations of calcium may impact bioavailability. However, data are lacking regarding the combinatorial effects of exercise, diet, and calcium and/or vitamin D supplementation on body composition changes in post-menopausal women. Herein, 128 post-menopausal women (51.3 ± 4.5 years, 36.4 ± 5.7 kg/m2, 46.2 ± 4.5% fat) were assigned to diet and supplement groups while participating in a supervised circuit-style resistance-training program (3 d/week) over a 14-week period. Diet groups included: (1) normal diet (CTL), (2) a low-calorie, higher protein diet (LCHP; 1600 kcal/day, 15% carbohydrates, 55% protein, 30% fat), and (3) a low-calorie, higher carbohydrate diet (LCHC; 1600 kcal/day, 55% carbohydrates, 15% protein, 30% fat). Supplement groups consisted of: (1) maltodextrin (PLA), (2) 800 mg/day of calcium carbonate (Ca), and (3) 800 mg/day of calcium citrate and malate and 400 IU/day of vitamin D (Ca+D). Fasting blood samples, body composition, resting energy expenditure, aerobic capacity, muscular strength and endurance measures were assessed. Data were analyzed by mixed factorial ANOVA with repeated measures and presented as mean change from baseline [95% CI]. Exercise training promoted significant improvements in strength, peak aerobic capacity, and blood lipids. Dieting resulted in greater losses of body mass (CTL −0.4 ± 2.4; LCHC −5.1 ± 4.2; LCHP −3.8 ± 4.2 kg) and fat mass (CTL −1.4 ± 1.8; LCHC −3.7 ± 3.7; LCHP −3.4 ± 3.4 kg). When compared to LCHC-PLA, the LCHC + Ca combination led to greater losses in body mass (PLA −4.1 [−6.1, −2.1], Ca −6.4 [−8.1, −4.7], Ca+D −4.4 [−6.4, −2.5] kg). In comparison to LCHC-Ca, the LCHC-Ca+D led to an improved maintenance of fat-free mass (PLA −0.3 [−1.4, 0.7], Ca −1.4 [−2.3, −0.5], Ca+D 0.4 [−0.6, 1.5] kg) and a greater loss of body fat (PLA −2.3 [−3.4, −1.1], Ca −1.3 [−2.3, −0.3], Ca+D −3.6 [−4.8, −2.5]%). Alternatively, no significant differences in weight loss or body composition resulted when adding Ca or Ca+D to the LCHP regimen in comparison to when PLA was added to the LCHP diet. When combined with an energy-restricted, higher carbohydrate diet, adding 800 mg of Ca carbonate stimulated greater body mass loss compared to when a PLA was added. Alternatively, adding Ca+D to the LCHC diet promoted greater% fat changes and attenuation of fat-free mass loss. Our results expand upon current literature regarding the impact of calcium supplementation with dieting and regular exercise. This data highlights that different forms of calcium in combination with an energy restricted, higher carbohydrate diet may trigger changes in body mass or body composition while no impact of calcium supplementation was observed when participants followed an energy restricted, higher protein diet

Research, knowledge transfer and innovation: the effect of Italian universities' efficiency on local economic development 2006−2012

We test whether there is a link between the performance of universities, measured through a concept of efficiency, and the economic development of the regions in which they operate. Indicators of teaching, research and third mission are considered as outputs. To handle endogeneity problems between the efficiency of universities and economic development, a system generalized method of moments and then an instrumental variable approach are used. Our findings reveal that the presence of efficient universities fosters local economic development. Knowledge spillovers occur to areas that are in close geographical proximity to efficient universities. Results are robust to different estimation strategies