Nachrichten aus der Bruder-Gemeine, 1842, no. 06

The Moravian Church's monthly journal of its worldwide activities, including in Labrador, published from 1819-94

Accuracy of estimation of effective reproduction number, <i>R</i>.

<p>Accuracy of estimation of effective reproduction number, <i>R</i>.</p

Characterization of transmission potential from observed outbreak size distributions.

<p>Each point shows joint maximum likelihood estimate of the effective reproduction number if both age groups were equally susceptible, <i>ρ</i>, and the relative susceptibility of over 20s, <i>S</i>. Dark line indicates 80% confidence interval (CI); light line is 95% CI. Blue, influenza A(H7N9); green, influenza A(H5N1); pink, monkeypox; orange, MERS.</p

Comparison of our parameter estimates and previously published estimates of <i>R</i>, from studies using single-type models, and <i>S</i>, from studies of vaccination history [5] and seroprevalence [28, 29] and models of immune acquisition [27].

<p>Comparison of our parameter estimates and previously published estimates of <i>R</i>, from studies using single-type models, and <i>S</i>, from studies of vaccination history [<a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004154#pcbi.1004154.ref005" target="_blank">5</a>] and seroprevalence [<a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004154#pcbi.1004154.ref028" target="_blank">28</a>, <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004154#pcbi.1004154.ref029" target="_blank">29</a>] and models of immune acquisition [<a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004154#pcbi.1004154.ref027" target="_blank">27</a>].</p

Details of outbreaks analysed.

<p>Details of outbreaks analysed.</p

Threshold for anomalously large outbreak sizes.

<p>(A) Primary case is in the under 20 age group. Points show joint outbreak sizes that have less than 10⁻³ probability of occurring. Green points, <i>R</i>₀ = 0.3; orange, <i>R</i>₀ = 0.7. (B) Primary case is in the over 20 age group.</p

Comparison of the estimated annual rates of clearance of initial infection between 13 high-risk HPV types and HPV-6 and -11.

<p>The vertical line signifies the median of the median rates for all fifteen types; horizontal bars represent the 95% posterior intervals.</p

The <i>Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible</i> (SIRS) model of high-risk Human Papillomavirus (HPV) transmission and potential consequent progression to cervical cancer.

<p>Susceptible individuals become infected at a rate proportional to the force of infection λ. Following infection, they may progress in a stepwise fashion to neoplastic lesions of increasing severity (CIN1, CIN2, CIN3) and then to cancer (with rates ). Alternatively, they may spontaneously clear the infection from any pre-cancerous stage (with rates ). High-grade clinical lesions (CIN2 and CIN3) may be identified by cytological screening and successfully treated (at a rate π). Following viral clearance or successful treatment of lesions, women retain an immunity to re-infection with the same HPV type. This immunity wanes at rate κ, precipitating a return to the Susceptible compartment.</p

The estimated rates of progression and clearance of CIN1-type lesions in four high-risk HPV types.

<p>To facilitate comparison with other studies, the grouping OHR includes types -31 and -33. Results presented are the median and 95% adjusted bootstrap confidence interval. There were insufficient data available for non-16 types to be able to infer the progression rates of CIN3 to cancer and, in the case of HPV-18, the rate of progression from CIN2 to CIN3.</p