Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

Identifying stellar streams in the 1st RAVE public data release

We searched for and detected stellar streams or moving groups in the solar neighbourhood, using the data provided by the 1st RAVE public data release. This analysis is based on distances to RAVE stars estimated from a color-magnitude relation that was calibrated on Hipparcos stars. Our final sample consists of 7015 stars selected to be within 500 pc of the Sun and to have distance errors better than 25%. Together with radial velocities from RAVE and proper motions from various data bases, there are estimates for all 6 phase-space coordinates of the stars in the sample. We characterize the orbits of these stars through suitable proxies for their angular momentum and eccentricity, and compare the observed distribution to the expectations from a smooth distribution. On this basis we identify at least four "phase space overdensities" of stars on very similar orbits in the Solar neighbourhood. We estimate the statistical significance of these overdensities by Monte Carlo simulations. Three of them have been identified previously: the Sirius and Hercules moving group and a stream found independently in 2006 by Arifyanto and Fuchs and Helmi et al. In addition, we have found a new stream candidate on a quite radial orbit, suggesting an origin external to the Milky Way's disk. Also, there is evidence for the Arcturus stream and the Hyades-Pleiades moving group in the sample. This analysis, using only a minute fraction of the final RAVE data set, shows the power of this experiment to probe the phase-space substructure of stars around the Sun.Comment: accepted for publication in Ap

Relationship between particulate matter and childhood asthma – basis of a future warning system for central Phoenix

Statistically significant correlations between increase of asthma attacks in children and elevated concentrations of particulate matter of diameter 10 microns and less (PM₁₀) were determined for metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona. Interpolated concentrations from a five-site network provided spatial distribution of PM₁₀ that was mapped onto census tracts with population health records. The case-crossover statistical method was applied to determine the relationship between PM₁₀ concentration and asthma attacks. For children ages 5–17, a significant relationship was discovered between the two, while children ages 0–4 exhibited virtually no relationship. The risk of adverse health effects was expressed as a function of the change from the 25th to 75th percentiles of mean level PM₁₀ (36 μg m^−3). This increase in concentration was associated with a 12.6% (95% CI: 5.8%, 19.4%) increase in the log odds of asthma attacks among children ages 5–17. Neither gender nor other demographic variables were significant. The results are being used to develop an asthma early warning system for the study area

Solar Wind Sputtering of Lunar Soil Analogs: The Effect of Ionic Charge and Mass

In this contribution we report sput-tering measurements of anorthite, an analog material representative of the lunar highlands, by singly and multicharged ions representative of the solar wind. The ions investigated include protons, as well as singly and multicharged Ar ions (as proxies for the heavier solar wind constituents), in the charge state range +1 to +9, and had a fixed solar-wind-relevant impact velocity of approximately 310 km/s or 500 eV/ amu. The goal of the measurements was to determine the sputtering contribution of the heavy, multicharged minority solar wind constituents in comparison to that due to the dominant H+ fraction