Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average

Effects of Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number on Naive Predictions of Solar Cycle 25

The recalibration of the International Sunspot Number brings new challenges to predictions of Solar Cycle 25. One is that the list of extrema for the original series is no longer usable because the values of all maxima and minima are different for the new version of the sunspot number. Timings of extrema are less sensitive to the recalibration but are a natural result of the calculation. Predictions of Solar Cycle 25 published before 2016 must be converted to the new version of the sunspot number. Any prediction method that looks across the entire time span will have to be reconsidered because values in the nineteenth century were corrected by a larger factor than those in the twentieth century. We report a list of solar maxima and minima values and timings based on the recalibrated sunspot number. Nave forecasts that depend only on the current values of the time series are common in economic studies. Several nave predictions of Solar Cycle 25, the climatological average (180 60), two versions of the inertial forecast, and two versions of the even-odd forecast, are derived from that table. The climatological average forecast is the baseline for more accurate predictions and the initial forecast in assimilative models of the Sun. It also provides the error estimate for Monte Carlo techniques that anticipate the long-term effects on the terrestrial environment. The other four predictions are shown to be statistically insignificant

The Flight of Newton's Cannonball

Newton's Cannon is a thought experiment used to motivate orbital motion. Cannonballs were fired from a high mountain at increasing muzzle velocity until they orbit the Earth. We will use the trajectories of these cannonballs to describe the shape of orbital tunnels that allow a cannonball fired from a high mountain to pass through the Earth. A sphere of constant density is used as the model of the Earth to take advantage of the analytic solutions for the interior trajectories that exist for that model. For the example shown, the cannonball trajectories that pass through the Earth intersect near the antipodal point of the cannon

The Solar Dynamics Observatory: Your On-Orbit Eye on the Sun

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) was launched on February 11, 2010 into the partly cloudy skies above Cape Canaveral, Florida. Over the next month SDO moved into a 28 degree inclined geosynchronous orbit at the longitude of the ground station in New Mexico. SDO is the first Space Weather Mission in NASA's Living With a Star Program. SDO's main goal is to understand and predict those solar variations that influence life on Earth and our technological systems. The SDO science investigations will determine how the Sun's magnetic field is generated and structured, how this stored magnetic energy is released into the heliosphere as the solar wind, energetic particles, and variations in the solar irradiance. The SDO mission consists of three scientific investigations (AIA, EVE, and HMI), a spacecraft bus, and a dedicated Ka-band ground station to handle the 150 Mbps data flow. SDO continues a long tradition of NASA missions providing calibrated solar spectral irradiance data, in this case using multiple measurements of the irradiance and rocket underflights of the spacecraft. The other instruments on SDO will be used to explain and develop predictive models of the solar spectral irradiance in the extreme ultraviolet. Science teams at LMSAL, LASP, and Stanford are responsible for processing, analyzing, distributing, and archiving the science data. We will talk about the launch of SDO and describe the data and science it is providing to NASA

Time-Series Analysis of Supergranule Characterstics at Solar Minimum

Sixty days of Doppler images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) / Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) investigation during the 1996 and 2008 solar minima have been analyzed to show that certain supergranule characteristics (size, size range, and horizontal velocity) exhibit fluctuations of three to five days. Cross-correlating parameters showed a good, positive correlation between supergranulation size and size range, and a moderate, negative correlation between size range and velocity. The size and velocity do exhibit a moderate, negative correlation, but with a small time lag (less than 12 hours). Supergranule sizes during five days of co-temporal data from MDI and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) / Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) exhibit similar fluctuations with a high level of correlation between them. This verifies the solar origin of the fluctuations, which cannot be caused by instrumental artifacts according to these observations. Similar fluctuations are also observed in data simulations that model the evolution of the MDI Doppler pattern over a 60-day period. Correlations between the supergranule size and size range time-series derived from the simulated data are similar to those seen in MDI data. A simple toy-model using cumulative, uncorrelated exponential growth and decay patterns at random emergence times produces a time-series similar to the data simulations. The qualitative similarities between the simulated and the observed time-series suggest that the fluctuations arise from stochastic processes occurring within the solar convection zone. This behavior, propagating to surface manifestations of supergranulation, may assist our understanding of magnetic-field-line advection, evolution, and interaction

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A Solar Dynamo (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycles smoothed peak activity will be about 140 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of 135 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 2025.2 1.5 year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer

Properties of Supergranulation During the Solar Minima of Cycles 22/23 and 23/24

The solar minimum at the transition from cycle 23 to 24 was notable for its low level of activity and its extended duration. Among the various fields of study, the evolution of the solar convection zone may provide insight into the causes and consequences of this recent minimum. This study continues previous investigations of the characteristics of solar supergranulation, a convection component strongly linked to the structure of the magnetic field, namely the time-evolution of the global mean of supergranule cell size, determined from spectral analysis of MDI Dopplergrams from the two previous solar minima. Analyses of the global mean of supergranule sizes show a quasi-oscillatory nature to the evolution of this particular supergranule characteristic. Performing similar analyses on realistic, synthetic Doppler images show similar time-dependent characteristics. We conclude that the observed fluctuations are not observational artifacts, and that an underlying trend exists within the evolution of the supergranulation network

Analysis of Supergranule Sizes and Velocities Using Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) Dopplergrams

Co-temporal Doppler images from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/ Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) have been analyzed to extract quantitative information about global properties of the spatial and temporal characteristics of solar supergranulation. Preliminary comparisons show that supergranules appear to be smaller and have stronger horizontal velocity flows within HMI data than was measured with MDI. There appears to be no difference in their evolutionary timescales. Supergranule sizes and velocities were analyzed over a ten-day time period at a 15-minute cadence. While the averages of the time-series retain the aforementioned differences, fluctuations of these parameters first observed in MDI data were seen in both MDI and HMI time-series, exhibiting a strong cross-correlation. This verifies that these fluctuations are not instrumental, but are solar in origin. The observed discrepancies between the averaged values from the two sets of data are a consequence of instrument resolution. The lower spatial resolution of MDI results in larger observed structures with lower velocities than is seen in HMI. While these results offer a further constraint on the physical nature of supergranules, they also provide a level of calibration between the two instruments