Flexibility Provisions in Multilateral Environmental Treaties

In international politics, intergovernmental treaties provide the rules of the game. Similar to private law, treaty designers face a trade-off between flexibility to adjust to unforeseen contingencies and the danger that the binding nature of the treaty and hence, the level of commitment by treaty members, is being undermined if the treaty can be amended too easily. In this paper, we address this problem in the analytical framework of institutional economics, drawing in particular on the incomplete contracts literature. Furthermore, we derive preliminary hypotheses and operational concepts for the measurement of flexibility in international treaties. Based on 400 treaties and supplementary agreements from the field of international environmental law, we provide new insights into the combined application of rules for adoption and entry into force of amendments, as well as provisions for conflict resolution and interpretative development. Using correspondence analysis, we show that treaty provisions can be represented in a two-dimensional property space, where treaties can be arrayed according to the degree of institutionalisation as well as along a flexibility dimension. --

Transport on complex networks: Flow, jamming and optimization

Many transport processes on networks depend crucially on the underlying network geometry, although the exact relationship between the structure of the network and the properties of transport processes remain elusive. In this paper we address this question by using numerical models in which both structure and dynamics are controlled systematically. We consider the traffic of information packets that include driving, searching and queuing. We present the results of extensive simulations on two classes of networks; a correlated cyclic scale-free network and an uncorrelated homogeneous weakly clustered network. By measuring different dynamical variables in the free flow regime we show how the global statistical properties of the transport are related to the temporal fluctuations at individual nodes (the traffic noise) and the links (the traffic flow). We then demonstrate that these two network classes appear as representative topologies for optimal traffic flow in the regimes of low density and high density traffic, respectively. We also determine statistical indicators of the pre-jamming regime on different network geometries and discuss the role of queuing and dynamical betweenness for the traffic congestion. The transition to the jammed traffic regime at a critical posting rate on different network topologies is studied as a phase transition with an appropriate order parameter. We also address several open theoretical problems related to the network dynamics

Towards a Topological Mechanism of Quark Confinement

We report on new analyses of the topological and chiral vacuum structure of four-dimensional QCD on the lattice. Correlation functions as well as visualization of monopole currents in the maximally Abelian gauge emphasize their topological origin and gauge invariant characterization. The (anti)selfdual character of strong vacuum fluctuations is reveiled by smoothing. In full QCD, (anti)instanton positions are also centers of the local chiral condensate and quark charge density. Most results turn out generically independent of the action and the cooling/smoothing method.Comment: 14 pages, Contribution to YKIS9

Flexibility Provisions in Multilateral Environmental Treaties

In international politics, intergovernmental treaties provide the rules of the game. Similar to private law, treaty designers face a trade-off between flexibility to adjust to unforeseen contingencies and the danger that the binding nature of the treaty and hence, the level of commitment by treaty members, is being undermined if the treaty can be amended too easily. In this paper, we address this problem in the analytical framework of institutional economics, drawing in particular on the incomplete contracts literature. Furthermore, we derive preliminary hypotheses and operational concepts for the measurement of flexibility in international treaties. Based on 400 treaties and supplementary agreements from the field of international environmental law, we provide new insights into the combined application of rules for adoption and entry into force of amendments, as well as provisions for conflict resolution and interpretative development. Using correspondence analysis, we show that treaty provisions can be represented in a two-dimensional property space, where treaties can be arrayed according to the degree of institutionalisation as well as along a flexibility dimension

Distribution of fermionic and topological observables on the lattice

We analyze the topological and fermionic vacuum structure of four-dimensional QCD on the lattice by means of correlators of fermionic observables and topological densities. We show the existence of strong local correlations between the topological charge and monopole density on the one side and the quark condensate, charge and chiral density on the other side. Visualization of individual gauge configurations demonstrates that instantons (antiinstantons) carry positive (negative) chirality, whereas the quark charge density fluctuates in sign within instantons.Comment: 10 pages, 5 eps figures, to appear in Phys. Lett.

Agricultural Structure and the Rise of the Nazi Party reconsidered

There is widespread agreement within academic literature that the NSDAP systematically and effectively targeted the rural areas beginning with the agrarian crisis in 1927/8. However, one issue is left unresolved: were specific levels of agricultural strata differently attracted to the Nazis, and if so, how? In light of the economic and political incentives offered to German peasants with differing farm sizes, we expect that regions characterized by middle peasants were most likely to have electorally swung in a distinct, asymmetric and relevant way towards the Nazis. In order to test this hypothesis, we have used a country-wide data set, which includes the original categories of ‘parcel peasants’ (0-2 hectare), ‘small-sized’ (2-5 hectare) and ‘medium-sized’ farmers (5-20 hectare). These specific classifications were introduced and behaviorally legitimated by the Statistical Office of the Weimar Republic at that time. We present the first analysis applying generalised additive models (GAM) for the assessment of ecological relations. In order to account for the construction of political spaces – and therefore of spatial dependencies, we offer a new mechanism based on stipulations of the electoral system. Even after controlling for pre-established impact factors (protestantism, urbanization, etc.) and for spatial effects, we identify a clear impact of the agrarian middle classes (5-20 hectare) on the Nazi vote beginning with the election in July 1932

Global energy governance: trade, infrastructure, and the diffusion of international organizations

Why do states choose to join and form international governmental organizations (IGOs) that regulate energy policy? In this article we make three specific contributions to the literature on international cooperation and diffusion. First, we show that countries form and join energy IGOs in response to memberships previously gained by direct competitors among oil and gas producers and consumers. Moreover, we demonstrate that energy IGOs diffuse among countries that share oil and gas pipelines. Finally, we provide evidence that the institutional design of established energy IGOs impacts the development of their membership network. To test these hypotheses, we rely on original data on oil and gas pipelines and the design of energy IGOs as well as on a newly compiled dataset that includes 152 countries and covers 38 years (1970–2007). We employ both network analysis and spatial econometrics

Separable and semiparametric network-based counting processes applied to the international combat aircraft trades

We propose a novel tie-oriented model for longitudinal event network data. The generating mechanism is assumed to be a multivariate Poisson process that governs the onset and repetition of yearly observed events with two separate intensity functions. We apply the model to a network obtained from the number of international deliveries of combat aircraft trades between 1950 and 2017. Based on a modified trade gravity approach we identify economic and political factors impeding or lightening the number of transfers. Extensive dynamics as well as country heterogeneity require the specification of semiparametric time-varying effects as well as random effects

A dynamic separable network model with actor heterogeneity: An application to global weapons transfers

In this paper, we analyse the network of international major conventional weapons (MCW) transfers from 1950 to 2016, based on data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The dataset consists of yearly bilateral arms transfers between pairs of countries, which allows us to conceive of the individual relationships as part of an overall trade network. For the analysis, we extend the separable temporal exponential random graph model (STERGM) to account for time‐varying effects on both the network level (trade network) and the actor level (country effects). Our investigation enables the identification of potentially differing driving forces that influence the formation of new trade relationships versus the persistence of existing ones. In accordance with political economy models, we expect security‐ and network‐related covariates to be most important for the formation of transfers, whereas repeated transfers should prevalently be determined by the importers’ market size and military spending. Our proposed modelling approach corroborates the hypothesis and quantifies the corresponding effects. Additionally, we subject the time‐varying heterogeneity effects to a functional principal component analysis. This analysis serves as an exploratory tool and allows us to identify countries with exceptional increases or decreases in their tendency to import and export weapons