Analisis Finansial Pembangunan Underpass Gatot Subroto Denpasar Dengan Simulasi Monte Carlo

Risk Management Reseacrh Construction Project at intersection of Gatot Subroto-Tjokroaminoto Denpasar stage I produce risks that belong to the category of extreme risk and a risk which has the largest percentage based on source that project risk by 44% classified as extreme risk and relatively high 31%. It mean that the planning of project implementation unplanned with detail that led to faulty or implementation that does not conform risks projects identified through qualitative analysis contains uncertainties which are dificult to predict which could affect the final cost that was planned at the beginning of the project, so it is necessary to quantitative analysis. This research aims to determine the cause of the risk and cost budget to figure out risks that are likely to cause changes in the cost of the implementation of the project by taking risks with high potential in the first phase of research is the concept of risk management and the concept of monte carlo simulation. Stages research is divided into five stages, namely the determination of the criteria, the determination of riks variables, risk analysis for the establishment of risk maps, feasibility of risk and risk alocation. The result obtained by the amount of risk the largest rate of increase in cost of teh project is the construction cost by 23,17%. The NPV value with the probability NPV ≤ Rp 143.608.056.555,92 by 50%, BCR average2,604 with a value BCR minimum of 2,488 and maximum of BCR with a cumulative value of BCR ≤ 2,54 by 10% and the value of BCR ≥ 2,620 amounted to 90% and IRR smaller than 13,2% by 10% while the value of the cumulative IRR graeter than 15,2 by 90%