The Environmental Effects of Global Changes on Northeast Central Europe in the Case of Non-Modified Agricultural Management

Climate impact scenarios for agriculture usually consider yield development, landscape water balance, nutrient dynamics or the endangerment of habitats separately. Scenario results are further limited by roughly discriminated land use types at low spatial resolution or they are restricted to single sites and isolated crops. Here, we exemplify a well data based comprehensive sensitivity analysis of a drought endangered agrarian region in Northeast Germany using a 2050 climate scenario. Coherently modelled results on water balance and yields indicate that agricultural production may persist, whereas wetlands and groundwater production will be negatively affected. The average percolation rate decreases from 143 mm a-1 to 12 mm a-1, and the average yield decline broken down by crops ranges from 4% for summer wheat to 14% for potatoes (main cereals: 5%)

Strategien für die Landwirtschaft im Klimawandel: eine Modellstudie

Das dynamische, prozess-basierte Simulati-onsmodell MONICA wurde eingesetzt, um die Entwicklung des Bewässerungs- und des Stickstoffbedarfs von Winterweizen, Wintergerste und Silomais in einem angenommenen Klimaszenario (A1B) zu berechnen. Der Bewässerungsbedarf wurde mit einer automatischen Bewässe-rungsfunktion in Simulationen auf einem Sandstandort (531 mm durchschnittlicher Jahresniederschlag 1951 – 2003), der Stickstoffbedarf zusätzlich auf einem Lössstandort ermittelt (876 mm). Es ergaben sich ein signifikant erhöhtes Ertragsniveau bei Mais und Weizen unter Bewässerung im Zeitraum um das Jahr 2070 im Vergleich zur nicht bewässerten Kultur, jedoch eine kaum ertragssteigernde Wirkung bei Gerste. Der Stickstoffbedarf steigt in der Simulation um etwa 20 kg N ha–1 bei Weizen, bleibt bei Gerste und Mais jedoch auf heutigem Niveau

Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany

AbstractDecisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government.The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO2 savings of up to 3.5milliontons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials.In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification

Possibilities and limitations for the usage of dynamic agroecosystem models within decision support systems on farm level

International audienc

Navigation Tools for Text Embedded within Complex-Shaped Area Features and Meandering Linear Features

Abstract: By presenting textual information within the space of corresponding images, the concept of DUAL-USE OF IMAGE SPACE (DUIS) eases the mental integration of textual and pictorial information. This paper applies the DUIS approach which was initially developed for area features to linear features. Moreover, we enhance the DUIS approach with new tools to navigate within embedded texts: The sidebar, the information petals and navigation bars. These tools provide the context as well as the structure of the entire textual information space at a glance thereby reducing the cognitive overheads associated with navigating within large texts

Testing different CO2 response algorithms against a FACE crop rotation experiment

AbstractA soil–crop–environment model was used to describe the combined effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2], temperature and precipitation on different agricultural crop species. Within this model, a set of algorithms describing CO2 response to photosynthesis and crop water use efficiency, which differed in complexity and parameter requirements, was tested for its suitability to explain crop growth responses and soil moisture dynamics observed over 6 years in a crop rotation (winter barley, sugar beet and winter wheat) with two cycles under normal and elevated atmospheric CO2 levels (FACE experiment; Weigel and Dämmgen [46]).All algorithms were able to describe an observed increase in above-ground dry matter for all crops in the rotation, with Willmott's index of agreement (IoA) ranging between 0.93 and 0.99. Increasing water use efficiency with rising CO2 was also successfully portrayed (IoA 0.80–0.86). A combination of a semi-empirical Michaelis–Menten approach, describing a direct impact of CO2 on photosynthesis, and a Penman–Monteith approach with a simple stomata conductance model for evapotranspiration yielded the best simulations. This combination is therefore considered suitable for the description of yield responses to rising [CO2] at the regional level. However, the performance of all tested algorithms was only marginally different at 550ppm CO2

Agrooekosystemmodellierung. Grundlage fuer die Abschaetzung von Auswirkungen moeglicher Landnutzungs- und Klimaaenderungen Abschlussbericht

Im vorliegenden Bericht werden die Ergebnisse des BMBF - Vorhabens 'Grundlagen und Modelle zur Abschaetzung von Klimaaenderungen auf den Boden, die Pflanzenentwicklung sowie den verwertbaren Ernteertrag einer wirtschaftlich bedeutenden Marktfruchtfolge' vorgestellt. Ziel des Vorhabens war es, auf der Grundlage der Erkenntnisse zur Fruchtart Winterweizen die Abhaengigkeit des Pflanzenwachstums von Temperatur, Strahlung sowie Wasser- und Naehrstoffversorgung fuer weitere wirtschaftlich bedeutende landwirtschaftliche Fruchtarten zu untersuchen und auf diesen Ergebnissen aufbauend prozessorientierte klimasensitive Agrooekosystemmodelle fuer Winterroggen, Wintergerste, Zuckerrueben und Winterzwischenfruechte zu entwickeln, zu verifizieren und an einigen Standorten zu validieren. Mit Hilfe von ersten Szenariorechnungen war die Klimasensibilitaet dieser Modelle nachzuweisen. (orig./KW)This report presents the results of the BMBF-sponsored project Fundamentals and models for assessing the effect of climate changes on soil, plant development and the crops of an economically significant range of farm products. Its aim was to study, by means of the results obtained for winter wheat, the dependence of plant growth on temperature, radiation and water as well as nutrient supply for other economically important crop types. Building on this, process-oriented, climate-sensitive agricultural ecosystem models for winter rye, winter barley, sugar-beet and winter intercrops were developed, verified and, in some sites, validated. First scenario calculations served to demonstrate the climate sensitivity of these models. (orig./KW)SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: RB 257(24) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekBundesministerium fuer Bildung, Wissenschaft, Forschung und Technologie, Bonn (Germany)DEGerman