The Consequences of Fiscal Stimulus on Public Debt : A Historical Perspective

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An intertemporal model of the real exchange rate, stock market, and international debt dynamics: policy simulations

This paper develops an open economy intertemporal optimising model that seeks to analyse the effect of bill financed government expenditure on several key financial markets. The main results suggest that an increase in bill financed government expenditure leads to a rise in net international debt, a fall in the domestic real exchange rate and a fall in the stock market value. Furthermore, due to the presence of non-linearities in the model, reversing the deficit financing policy doesn’t restore the initial net international credit, high stock market value state. Instead, the country finds itself stuck in an international debt and low stock market value trap

Explaining Student Retention: The case of the University of Aberdeen

Student retention has risen high on the political agenda in the UK as part of the government’s priorities to widen participation in higher education, in particular among groups traditionally under-represented in the sector. These concerns have been reflected in policies of the funding bodies in the UK. In turn Universities across the UK have become increasingly active in developing processes and procedures to meet the challenges of improving student retention while simultaneously widening access and participation in the context of rising student numbers overall. This has led to the desire for accurate data and reliable statistical analysis on which to inform policy at the University of Aberdeen. The purpose of this report is to answer the question: “To what extent can the probability of drop out of a student be explained by student characteristics?” Are mature students more likely to drop out? Is there an empirical distinction between younger and older mature students? Are male students more prone to dropping out? To what extent can the level of entry qualifications explain dropouts? Are there any differences in the impact of below core entry qualifications between male and female students? Do students who performed unsatisfactorily in their first year and who were allowed to repeat this first year drop out less or more often than other students? Have there been any significant trends over time? It is clear that any associations of these characteristics with drop out rates may have important policy implications for the University as it may allow the identification of those potentially “at risk” before they join the University and hence facilitate the targeting of support once students start their studies

Some are Punished and Some are Rewarded: A Study of the Impact of Performance Pay on Job Satisfaction

Using an econometric procedure that corrects for both self-selection of individuals into their preferred compensation scheme and wage endogeneity, this study investigates whether significant differences exist in the job satisfaction of individuals receiving performance-related pay (PRP) compared to those on alternative compensation plans. Using data from four waves of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), it is found that PRP exerts a positive effect on the mean job satisfaction of (very) high-paid workers only. A potential explanation for this pattern could be that for lower-paid employees PRP is perceived to be controlling, whereas higher-paid workers derive a utility benefit from what they regard as supportive reward schemes. Using PRP as an incentive device in the UK could therefore be counterproductive in the long run for certain low-paid occupations.European Commissio

The health hazards of unemployment and poor education: the socioeconomic determinants of health duration in the European Union

The effect of socioeconomic status on the likelihood that an individual enters a period of poor health is examined using an Accelerated Failure Time methodology. This study employs data from the European Community Household Panel for the years 1994-2002 across 13 European countries, using the Physical and Mental Health Problems, Illnesses and Disabilities measure of physical health. Some socioeconomic status indicators do impact on the length of time an individual remains in good health – these being unemployment, which has a negative effect, and education, which has a positive effect – but others, such as income, have far less of an impact. Age and gender effects are also found.European Commission, Fifth Framework Programme “Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources” (contract number: QLRT-2001-02292)

Is unemployment and low income harmful to health? : Evidence from Britain

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors thank Ian McAvinchey for helpful comments. FUNDING This work was financially supported by the European Commission under the Fifth Framework Programme “Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources” [grant number QLRT-2001-02292].Peer reviewedPostprin

Are Individual Characteristics all that Matters in Earnings Determination? Evidence from the US and Germany

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Sustainable growth, the budget deficit, and inflation

This paper analyses the dynamics of economic growth when the government deficit is money financed. Our model specifies capital formation as resulting from internally generated non-traded investment expenditure. The central innovation of this paper is the specification of the long run equilibrium conditions as those of zero acceleration of inflation and capital formation. This gives rise to positive inflation and sustainable growth (positive capital formation). We found there exists multiple economic growth equilibria. One of these is associated with high growth and low inflation; the other with high inflation and low growth. Furthermore, there is policy hysteresis, which has important implications for the current debates on fiscal policy.peer-reviewe

Interest Rates and Monetary Policy

This paper conducts a thorough intertemporal analysis of nominal interest rate based monetary policy. Its main contribution is to show how such a policy can have different effects depending on the assumptions made about the saving and borrowing behaviour of firms. We consider two cases (i) consumers are savers and firms are borrowers, and (ii) both consumers and firms are borrowers (the nation as a whole is borrowing from abroad). In one case we confirm conventional wisdom, but in the other case we find there may be unexpected and surprising results. Moreover, our analysis has important implications for both inflation and nominal exchange rate targeting policies

Is Unemployment harmful to health? Evidence from Britain

This paper investigates the effects of unemployment on health in Britain. It examines the effects of socio-economic variables on the duration of spells of good health by using an accelerated failure time model. Two different measures of health are used, self-assessed health and mobility problems (an objective health index based on a modified 'activities of daily living' index). Furthermore, the paper analyses whether socio-economic effects on good health duration vary between males and females and between the older and younger workforce. The analysis takes into account the role of lifestyle factors. It is found that employment status, education and income have significant effects on the duration of spells of good health. Importantly, unemployment adversely affects the duration of spells of good health, and income exerts a significant positive effect