Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective tool to explore the potential distribution of terrestrial, freshwater and marine organisms; however, SDMs have been seldom used to model ichthyoplankton distributions, and thus, our understanding of how larval stages of fishes will respond to climate change is still limited. Here, we developed SDMs to explore potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of ichthyoplankton. Location Yangtze Estuary, China. Methods Using long-term ichthyoplankton survey data and a large set of marine predictor variables, we developed ensemble SDMs for five abundant ichthyoplankton species in the Yangtze Estuary (Coilia mystus, Hypoatherina valenciennei, Larimichthys polyactis, Salanx ariakensis and Chelidonichthys spinosus). Then, we projected their habitat suitability under present and future climate conditions. Results The ensemble SDMs had good predictive performance and were successful in estimating the known distributions of the five species. Model projections highlighted two contrasting patterns of response to future climates: while C. mystus will likely expand its range, the ranges of the other four species will likely contract and shift northward. Main conclusions According to our SDM projections, the five ichthyoplankton species that we tested in the Yangtze Estuary are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. These projected different responses seemingly reflect the differential functional attributes and life-history strategies of these species. To the extent that climate change emerges as a critical driver of the future distribution of these species, our findings provide an important roadmap for designing future conservation strategies for ichthyoplankton in this region.Peer reviewe

Craterocephalus dalhousiensis n. sp., a sexually dimorphic freshwater teleost (Atherinidae) from South Australia

Volume: 18Start Page: 88End Page: 9

Life cycles and distribution of atherinids in the marine and estuarine waters of southern Australia

New and published data have been collated for the biology and distribution of atherinid species abundant in the coastal saline waters of Australia below 30°S. This information has been used to determine whether these species typically spawn at sea or pass through the whole of their life cycle in estuaries, and in one case, also lagoons and saline lakes. Length-frequency data, gonadosomatic indices and distribution records indicate that in south-eastern Australia Craterocephalus honoriae and Atherinosoma microstoma typically reach total lengths less than 90 mm, have a one-year life cycle and breed within estuaries. This parallels the situation recently described for Atherinosoma elongata, Atherinosoma wallacei and Allanetta mugiloides in south-western Australia (Prince et al., 1982a; Prince & Potter, 1983). The marine species Atherinosoma presbyteroides, which reaches a similar size and has a one year life cycle in both south-western and south-eastern mainland Australia, only enters estuaries in large numbers in the former region. While Atherinomorus ogilbyi is also found in estuaries and typically breeds at sea, it reaches total lengths as great as 189 mm and has a longer life than A. presbyteroides. The limited data for Atherinason esox and Atherinason hepsetoides demonstrate that both these marine atherinids can attain total lengths of 139 and 108 mm respectively and live for longer than a year but do not enter estuaries in large numbers. The latter species is unique amongst southern Australian atherinids in having a distribution which extends into deeper water. It is suggested that landlocking may have played a role in the evolution and success of the estuarine mode of life sensu stricto of A. wallacei, A. elongata, A. microstoma, A. honoriae and A. mugiloides in southern Australian waters